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Tuesday, June 9, 2020

Now To Check AAPL News -- June 9, 2020

This is huge, absolutely huge, and explains why I said an analyst recently made a rookie mistake when he said Warren Buffett made a mistake by "panic selling" his airline stocks. See "Warren Buffett's Spreadsheet" below. Re-posting from yesterday:
Panic selling: there is an article over at Investor's Business Daily which suggests Warren Buffett took a $2.7 billion loss due to "panic selling" of his equity in four airlines (UAL, AAL, LUV, and DAL).  The journalist makes a rookie mistake in his analysis. I will provide the rationale later if I remember to do so.
AAPL:


The news: okay, here it is -- Apple at its Developers Conference --
  • will shift to internal chips
  • IBM exits facial recognition
  • Apple set to unveil custom Mac chip
  • Bollinger Band indicates "bullish stocks"
  • Apple gears up to offer services as a bundled package deal
  • "Apple Buyers Beware" -- Paul Franke -- contributor to SeekingAlpha -- could his timing be worse?
Now, let's check the airlines:
  • UAL: down over 8%;
  • DAL: down slightly over 8%;
  • LUV: down slightly over 6%
  • AAL: down almost 11%;

Chicken: two days ago I went to our neighborhood grocer to buy a chicken to "do" a beer-can chicken. Holy mackerel.
There were only six chickens available, all "organic," and very high-priced, averaging about $18/chicken. Some were priced over $20. I went to another store down the street: a larger selection but pretty much the same story. Are you kidding me. I am aware of Wuhan flu and the chicken shortage story.
Yesterday, I went to Costco. Rotisserie chickens for $4.99.

Amazing.

Our oldest granddaughter says Costco has its own chicken farms.

True or not, think about that.

Now, think about Apple, Inc., making its own computer chips.

But, regardless, I'm curious. Does Costco have its own chicken farms?


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Picture Perfect 


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Warren Buffett's Spreadsheet

Airline
Shr Price: 3/31/2020
Dollars
Shares
Shr Price: June 9, 2020
Total
DAL
28.53
675,000,000
23,659,306
34.08
806,309,148
UAL
31.55
675,000,000
21,394,612
44.97
962,115,689
AAL
12.19
675,000,000
55,373,257
18.24
1,010,008,203
SWA
35.61
675,000,000
18,955,350
38.06
721,440,607


2,700,000,000


3,499,873,648






AAPL
254.29
10,617,799
2,700,000,000
344
3,652,522,710











152,649,063

















3,499,873,648





4.36155924%

Did he fire five shots or six? -- Dirty Harry.

What would you rather be holding today? Airline stocks or AAPL?

5 comments:

  1. Shaleprofile.com has ND down 200,000 bopd in APR.

    https://shaleprofile.com/blog/bakken-monthly-update/north-dakota-update-through-april-2020/

    They get the state data early, by subscription.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you, much appreciated. If that turns out to be accurate -- NDIC will have "final" data when they post in July, 2020, -- ND production stayed above 1 million bbls in April. I could be wrong -- and maybe the worst is yet to come -- but I thought some projected ND production to drop below 1 million bopd.

      On another note, the EUR-graphic was very nice to see. I haven't looked a that in a long time.

      Delete
    2. 1. shaleprofile.com has nailed it a few days early every month recently. They are not guessing. They get the well data a few days early off the subscription and just compile it ahead of the Director's Cut.

      2. You won't need to wait until July. Just 12JUN. Then the Director's Cut with APR numbers will be out.

      3. I expect May to be down even more. Some big shutins that month.

      4. JUN may be back up a bit with shutins returning.

      5. Think we will hobble a bit over 1MM for a while, through the end of 2020. Returning the shutins and completing DUCs will compete with natural decline. But there's not a lot of new drilling either. $40 is not a good price for the Bakken. Need $50+. Ideally $60+. Especially given transport costs and higher taxes (versus TX or OK).

      Delete
    3. You are correct: the Director's Cut that comes out on June 12 (this week) will be April data but it will be "preliminary" data for April. "Final" numbers are posted a month later. But in the big scheme of things, the preliminary numbers are very, very close to the final numbers. The reason I make a distinction is because when records are being broken/set, the "final" numbers are the numbers I go by.

      But yes, it will be nice to see ND production remain above 1 million bopd.

      Delete
  2. Thank you. If Costco does have chicken farms, my hunch is they are doing an incredible job of protecting their employees and their chickens.

    ReplyDelete

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