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Monday, May 11, 2020

Notes From All Over, Mid-Morning Edition -- May 11, 2020

Just breaking:


Saudi Arabia in deep doo-doo: see this post. Analysts are writing stories to fit "their" narrative, headlining that there was a "price rally" following Saudi's announcement that it was going to cut production.
In fact, no such thing, unless one calls a forty-cent rise on $20-oil a price rally. Give me a break.
Saudi overplayed their hand, and I don't see an end to their problems for the next year or so, assuming they ever recover. This was a huge debacle on so many levels.
More evidence Saudi having cash flow problems: suspends off-shore drilling rig. 
Offshore drilling company Noble Corp has said that its jack-up rig Noble Scott Marks, located offshore Saudi Arabia, will be suspended at the request of its client.
The rig is on a contract with Saudi Aramco, which, as Noble Corp. said in April, had recently requested for Noble to reduce the rig's dayrate from $159,000.
The offshore drilling contractor said Wednesday that the client had suspended the rig for a period of up to 365 days, with the suspension starting in the first half of May following the conclusion of the well in progress.
It did not provide info on the previous dayrate reduction request.
"During the suspension period, no dayrate will be paid. However, the company has the right to market the rig in pursuit of other work opportunities in the region," Noble Corporation said. The rig has a contract with Saudi Aramco until late October 2022. 
Saudi and off-shore drilling: we've talked about this before but the fact that Saudi Arabia was even engaged in very, very expensive off-shore drilling when it only cost $5/bbl to lift oil onshore spoke volumes about Saudi's aging fields. 

Medium to long term. Saudi says they will feel fiscally challenged for the medium term to long term. They did not get more specific. Most folks would suggest "medium term" means six months; long term, maybe a year or so. The Saudis have a peculiar way of looking at things, and"medium term" for them could certainly be measured in years. We'll see.

Quiet: I still think things are a bit too quiet in the Mideast right now. Iranian "friendly-fire" reported to kill nineteen over the weekend.

Wuhan flu: I've always maintained that no matter what you read, if you read enough, you will come across items in news articles that you might otherwise skip. It happens to me frequently.
Two weeks ago I was back in my "evolution" phase and reading three of my favorite books on the subject. Somewhere along the line I came across pangolins, but now forget where. And then, lo and behold, there are now news stories suggesting pangolins may hold the secret to controlling coronavirus. LOL.
Bats, hydroxychloroquine, vitamin D, clotting in lungs, and now pangolins. Links everywhere but this is one. Pangolins remind many of armadillos. Pangolins and aardvarks are Old World while armadillos, sloths, and anteaters are New World; the New World and Old World varieties are of different lineages.
Wuhan flu: for some the mantra has changed from "flattening the curve," which we've done, to "not one more death." NY governor was strong proponent of  "not one more death."

Reading: I'm pretty much done with "evolution" for now. I am back into Scotch Irish history.

Tesla: I don't know where "it" stands, but it looks like Musk Melon could move Tesla headquarters to Texas pretty quickly.
Moving a manufacturing plant to Nevada, I would think, might take a bit more time. However, there are auto manufacturing plants in Texas, and my hunch there may be some unused capacity. It's hard to believe that Tesla would partner with an existing manufacture, say Toyota, but stranger things have happened. This, too, should be fascinating to watch. 
Tesla: apparently "loses" another European vice president as it begins construction on Berlin factory.

Tesla: Model 3 sales in China plunge 64% in April despite EV market recovery.

Wuhan flu: some folks have gone from "flattening the curve" to "not one more death." The tipping point for re-opening state governments. When states have to start laying off government employees, and, teachers. Tea leaves suggest college football and profession football (NFL) could fall victim to Wuhan flu. NY governor Cuomo was big proponent of "not one more death." My hunch he won't be using that phrase any more starting this week. Just in: NYC lock down "likely" to continue into mid-June, which means the end of June, which means, "we'll re-evaluate in June, whether we need to extend through July."  By the way, for those who even look at Snopes any more, that site says it is "mostly true" that NYC's death rate is 250x that of Tokyo. "Mostly true. Wow.


By the way, did VP Mike Pence show up for work today? Tweets over the weekend of on-again, off-again self-quarantining as more and more DC folks test positive for corona virus.
Speaking of which, assuming no vaccine (or a less-than-effective vaccine) and assuming the virus just doesn't fade away, almost everyone in American should eventually test positive. To date, I think the CDC says one million Americans have tested positive. That's over four months. Of course, testing is picking up, but at that rate -- oh, let's be generous -- let's say one million new positives every two months -- 300 million American / 2 months per million = 150 months before everyone finally tests positive.
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Parr Park
Grapevine, TX
Bicycling

4 comments:

  1. Are you using a GoPro camera?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No.

      I have a GoPro camera but I forgot it at home. I just hand-held my iPhone. A little shaky but it was adequate for my purposes.

      Delete
  2. Watch the shady places. In my experience, that is where sharp things and potholes lurk~ Looks like a nice ride.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You are correct. That's where I get all my flat tires. Worse, I was not on a wide-tire bike. The narrow tires with thinner rubber are really prone to flats, but I was lucky this time.

      Delete

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