Updates
Later, 12:14 p.m. CT: see comments --
I see a balanced report. Although the crude stocks are down product stocks make up for the crude drop, look at last line of Total Stocks (excluding SPR). Up by 5 million barrels. Next look at the last line Net Imports of Crude and Petroleum Product, imported 388 vs exported 278 barrels from week to week. Figure about 4.5 million barrel differences from the last 2 weeks of reports.
These weekly reports of crude stocks can have swings due to shipping delays of delivery by storms or heavy fog in the Houston ship channel. Couple of delayed VLCC delayed deliveries is 4 million barrel difference in crude stocks.
Refineries have adjusted their processing, likely the excess jet fuel is being cracked into gasoline for example, year to year stock is almost same.
Original Post
EIA weekly report: link here --
- US crude oil in storage: decreased by a whopping 5 million bbls from the previous week;
- change in US crude oil in storage over the past week: 526.5 million bbls, about 10% above the already fat -- and getting fatter -- five-year average
- all that talk about a propane shortage? propane inventories are about 14% above the five-year average for this time of year;
- refiners operating at 69.4% capacity
- gasoline production continued to decrease, as did distillate fuel prodution
- US crude oil imports: 5.2 million bopd, down by almost 200,000 bopd from previous week
- US crude oil imports are almost 25% less than the same four-week period last year
- total products supplied: 16 millio b/d; down almsot 20% from same period last year
- jet fuel supplied down a whopping 67% compared to last year
- WTI: immediately after the report -- up almost 5%; now at $33.49
- OPEC basket: immediately after report -- up over 6%; now about $28.21
- But get this, Russian Urals, up over 11% overnight; reports that China needs more Russian Urals oil;
US crude oil in storage:
Week
|
Week Ending
|
Change
|
Million Bbls Storage
|
Week 0
|
November 21, 2018
|
4.9
|
446.9
|
Week 1
|
November 28, 2018
|
3.6
|
450.5
|
Week 2
|
December 6, 2018
|
-7.3
|
443.2
|
Week 3
|
December 12, 2018
|
-1.2
|
442.0
|
Week 4
|
December 19, 2018
|
-0.5
|
441.5
|
Week 5
|
December 28, 2018
|
0.0
|
441.4
|
Week 71
|
April 8, 2020
|
15.2
|
484.4
|
Week 72
|
April 15, 2020
|
19.2
|
503.6
|
Week 72
|
April 22, 2020
|
15.0
|
518.6
|
Week 73
|
April 29, 2020
|
9.0
|
527.6
|
Week 74
|
May 6, 2020
|
4.6
|
532.2
|
Week 75
|
May 13, 2020
|
-0.7
|
531.5
|
Week 76
|
May 20, 2020
|
-5.0
|
526.5
|
Jet fuel delivered:
Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week
|
||
Week
|
Week Ending
|
Change
|
Week 0
|
March 11, 2020
|
-12.80%
|
Week 1
|
March 18, 2020
|
-12.60%
|
Week 2
|
March 25, 2020
|
-8.90%
|
Week 3
|
April 1, 2020
|
-16.40%
|
Week 4
|
April 8, 2020
|
-0.22%
|
Week 5
|
April 15, 2020
|
-39.70%
|
Week 6
|
April 22, 2020
|
-53.60%
|
Week 7
|
April 29, 2020
|
-61.60%
|
Week 8
|
May 6, 2020
|
-66.60%
|
Week 9
|
May 13, 2020
|
-68.50%
|
Week 10
|
May 30, 2020
|
-67.90%
|
Crude oil imports:
Crude Oil Imports
|
|||
Week (week-over-week)
|
Week Ending
|
Raw Data, millions of bbls
|
Change (millions of bbls)
|
Week 0
|
March 11, 2029
|
6.4
|
0.174
|
Week 1
|
March 18, 2020
|
6.5
|
0.127
|
Week 2
|
March 25, 2020
|
6.1
|
-0.422
|
Week 3
|
April 1, 2020
|
6.0
|
-0.070
|
Week 4
|
April 8, 2020
|
5.9
|
-0.173
|
Week 5
|
April 15, 2020
|
5.7
|
-0.194
|
Week 6
|
April 22, 2020
|
5.6
|
-0.700
|
Week 7
|
April 29, 2020
|
5.3
|
0.365
|
Week 8
|
May 6, 2020
|
5.7
|
0.410
|
Week 9
|
May 13, 2020
|
5.4
|
-0.321
|
Week 10
|
May 20, 2020
|
5.2
|
-0.194
|
I see a balanced report. Although the crude stocks are down product stocks make up for the crude drop, look at last line of Total Stocks (excluding SPR). Up by 5 million barrels. Next look at the last line Net Imports of Crude and Petroleum Product, imported 388 vs exported 278 barrels from week to week. Figure about 4.5 million barrel differences from the last 2 weeks of reports.
ReplyDeleteThese weekly reports of crude stocks can have swings due to shipping delays of delivery by storms or heavy fog in the Houston ship channel. Couple of delayed VLCC delayed deliveries is 4 million barrel difference in crude stocks.
Refineries have adjusted their processing, likely the excess jet fuel is being cracked into gasoline for example, year to year stock is almost same.
When Saudi did this before, in 2014, it took them about two years to realize their mistake.
DeleteIt certainly appears, at least right now, both Russia and Saudi Arabia are doing to their best to not let this continue for even six months.
I think that USA shale well output will continue steadily down. Considering that a shale well output reduction first to second year is ~60-80%, the complete cost of a well should pay for itself in a about a year. Hard to do with $40 oil unless you hit a super sweet spot. One new shale well will output nearly as much oil/gas as ~10 5 year old producing wells. (without re-fracking or "Halo Effect")
DeleteMany companies are in deep debt giving many bankers serious heartburn
I think it will be quite fascinating to watch, actually. Offshore is dead; Saudi Arabia can't survive on $40 oil, much less $30, oil. Russian oil companies, apparently are asking to be bailed out (headline posted; I did not read the story).
DeleteCrescent Point Energy in North Dakota continues to remain quite active and I don't think they are in what most folks consider the best spots in North Dakota.
Except for Continental Resources, it appears most publicly traded operators are hedged at $50 or more.
But, yes, all things being equal, one would assume shale oil production would decline. We've been in the "manufacturing" phase for oil production in the Bakken for many years now, and in the "manufacturing phase, production will follow price.
Slawson has not cut production, as of yet. Got first month of reduced price this month. With price back over $30 and rising, I doubt they will.
ReplyDeleteSlawson is perhaps the best operator in the Bakken. Period. Dot.
Delete