Updates
See comments: I don't want to lose this comment, so here it is again. It has to do with EIA's US crude oil supply in days, which the EIA now estimates to be 42. days. A writer who follows this much more closely than I do, and who understands it much more closely that I do wrote:
I figure there was an 18,160,000 barrels per day global surplus in April ....times 30 days would mean 544,800,000 more barrels were produced than used, and hence had to be stored somewhere
With global demand revised down to 81.30 million barrels per day, that means "we" have added 6.7 days to global supplies in just one month.
Original Post
EIA, weekly data, link here, and here, pending, released at 9:30 a.m. CT -- are you kidding me? --
- US crude oil inventories decreased by 0.7 million bbls from the previous week
- US crude oil inventories now stand at 531.5 million bbls -- 11% above the already fat five-year average;
- refineries operating at 67.9% capacity -- a new modern low?
- imports averaged 5.4 million bopd last week, down by 321,000 bbls -- another surprise -- what happened to all that Saudi oil off Long Beach port? Wow!
- imports average about 5.3 million bopd, 26.1% less than the same four-week period last year;
- jet fuel supplied was down a whopping 68.5% compared with same four-week period last year;
Week
|
Week Ending
|
Change
|
Million Bbls Storage
|
Week 0
|
November 21, 2018
|
4.9
|
446.9
|
Week 1
|
November 28, 2018
|
3.6
|
450.5
|
Week 2
|
December 6, 2018
|
-7.3
|
443.2
|
Week 3
|
December 12, 2018
|
-1.2
|
442.0
|
Week 4
|
December 19, 2018
|
-0.5
|
441.5
|
Week 5
|
December 28, 2018
|
0.0
|
441.4
|
Week 6
|
January 4, 2019
|
0.0
|
441.4
|
Week 7
|
January 9, 2019
|
-1.7
|
439.7
|
Week 8
|
January 16, 2019
|
-2.7
|
437.1
|
Week 9
|
January 24, 2019
|
8.0
|
445.0
|
Week 68
|
March 18, 2020
|
2.0
|
453.7
|
Week 69
|
March 25, 2020
|
1.6
|
455.4
|
Week 70
|
April 1, 2020
|
13.8
|
469.2
|
Week 71
|
April 8, 2020
|
15.2
|
484.4
|
Week 72
|
April 15, 2020
|
19.2
|
503.6
|
Week 72
|
April 22, 2020
|
15.0
|
518.6
|
Week 73
|
April 29, 2020
|
9.0
|
527.6
|
Week 74
|
May 6, 2020
|
4.6
|
532.2
|
Week 75
|
May 13, 2020
|
-0.7
|
531.5
|
Imports:
Crude Oil Imports
|
||||
Week (week-over-week)
|
Week Ending
|
Raw Data, millions of bbls
|
Change (millions of bbls)
|
Four-week period comparison
|
Week 0
|
March 11, 2029
|
6.4
|
0.174
|
|
Week 1
|
March 18, 2020
|
6.5
|
0.127
|
|
Week 2
|
March 25, 2020
|
6.1
|
-0.422
|
|
Week 3
|
April 1, 2020
|
6.0
|
-0.070
|
|
Week 4
|
April 8, 2020
|
5.9
|
-0.173
|
|
Week 5
|
April 15, 2020
|
5.7
|
-0.194
|
|
Week 6
|
April 22, 2020
|
5.6
|
-0.700
|
|
Week 7
|
April 29, 2020
|
5.3
|
0.365
|
-19.700%
|
Week 8
|
May 6, 2020
|
5.7
|
0.410
|
|
Week 9
|
May 13, 2020
|
5.4
|
-0.321
|
-26.100%
|
Jet fuel delivered:
Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week
|
||
Week
|
Week Ending
|
Change
|
Week 0
|
March 11, 2020
|
-12.80%
|
Week 1
|
March 18, 2020
|
-12.60%
|
Week 2
|
March 25, 2020
|
-8.90%
|
Week 3
|
April 1, 2020
|
-16.40%
|
Week 4
|
April 8, 2020
|
-0.22%
|
Week 5
|
April 15, 2020
|
-39.70%
|
Week 6
|
April 22, 2020
|
-53.60%
|
Week 7
|
April 29, 2020
|
-61.60%
|
Week 8
|
May 6, 2020
|
-66.60%
|
Week 9
|
May 13, 2020
|
-68.50%
|
ok, here's how i'm opening my write-up: US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending May 8th indicated that because of a large jump in the amount of oil that went missing after it was either imported or reportedly produced, our commercial supplies of stored crude oil fell for the first time in 16 weeks
ReplyDeletei can't say it was because refineries used more, because they didn't
i can't say we exported more, cause we didn't...
i strongly suspect the production figures are wrong, but that's not my call to make.
commercial supplies were down a bit because 276,000 barrels per day was moved to the SPR...
refinery utilization was lower 3 weeks ago, so that's not a record, yet..
but our exports of gasoline fell by 358,000 barrels per day to a 100 month low of 174,000 bpd...
I've lost the bubble on how much the SPR will have added by the time this is all said and done, but my take on the SPR is the same feeling I had about all the tweets by analysts over at twitter on Ecuador, Libya, and Iran prior to the "Meltdown-2020."
DeleteLike Ecuador, Libya, and Iran prior to the "Meltdown-2020," the SPR is but a drop in the bucket compared to what Russia, Saudi Arabia, and US production does in the current environment.
A year ago, before this debacle, any time an analyst started talking about Libya I quit reading the article (or the tweet). Libya's production was meaningless in the big scheme of things, and entirely unpredictable.
Nick Cunningham has an article out "today" which suggests that US shale production is much, much worse -- or will be much, much worse -- than what is being reported and/or being predicted. That would agree with your thesis that the only (?) way to explain the drop in US inventory was a significant drop in production.
Unless, there is something else going on. Hess is now storing oil off shore; I don't know how many other US companies are doing the same. And it's my understanding that the weekly EIA crude oil inventory is on-shore storage, but I could be wrong.
In addition, I don't know to what extent "storage in pipelines" is affecting the inventory number.
But this is all beyond my pay grade. It is interesting that the traders seem to dis-believe these inventory numbers. Despite a "draw," rather than a "build," in the EIA numbers (very, very much different than the API numbers), the price of WTI hardly moved.
By the way: US oil supply --another record -- an incredible 42 days of crude oil supply in the US.
Deletei figure there was a 18,160,000 barrels per day global surplus in April...times 30 days would mean 544,800,000 more barrels were produced than used, and hence had to be stored somewhere...with global demand revised down to 81.30 million barrels per day, that means we added 6.7 days to global supplies in just one month...
DeleteOne-half billion more bbls produced than used -- these numbers are simply staggering.
Delete