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Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Are You Kidding Me? EIA Weekly Data -- May 13, 2020

Updates

See comments: I don't want to lose this comment, so here it is again. It has to do with EIA's US crude oil supply in days, which the EIA now estimates to be 42. days. A writer who follows this much more closely than I do, and who understands it much more closely that I do wrote:
I figure there was an 18,160,000 barrels per day global surplus in April ....times 30 days would mean 544,800,000 more barrels were produced than used, and hence had to be stored somewhere 
With global demand revised down to 81.30 million barrels per day, that means "we" have added 6.7 days to global supplies in just one month.

Original Post 

Swing producers? US shale?  I don't know. We'll have to look at the numbers six months from now, but it certainly appears that US shale operators can "turn on a dime." I think it's fascinating. News out of the Mideast suggest weeks, if not months, of negotiations, talk, fake news, etc., and then we might finally see some data. US shale -- in the Bakken it's a daily update. In the Permian maybe a bit longer, but certainly within a month we see production responding to geopolitical events. Whatever. Idle rambling. Waiting for EIA data. [Update: five minutes later -- wow, talking about turning on a dime! See below.]

EIA, weekly data, link here, and here, pending, released at 9:30 a.m. CT -- are you kidding me? --
  • US crude oil inventories decreased by 0.7 million bbls from the previous week
  • US crude oil inventories now stand at 531.5 million bbls -- 11% above the already fat five-year average;
  • refineries operating at 67.9% capacity -- a new modern low?
  • imports averaged 5.4 million bopd last week, down by 321,000 bbls -- another surprise -- what happened to all that Saudi oil off Long Beach port? Wow!
  • imports average about 5.3 million bopd, 26.1% less than the same four-week period last year;
  • jet fuel supplied was down a whopping 68.5% compared with same four-week period last year;
Re-balancing:
Week
Week Ending
Change
Million Bbls Storage
Week 0
November 21, 2018
4.9
446.9
Week 1
November 28, 2018
3.6
450.5
Week 2
December 6, 2018
-7.3
443.2
Week 3
December 12, 2018
-1.2
442.0
Week 4
December 19, 2018
-0.5
441.5
Week 5
December 28, 2018
0.0
441.4
Week 6
January 4, 2019
0.0
441.4
Week 7
January 9, 2019
-1.7
439.7
Week 8
January 16, 2019
-2.7
437.1
Week 9
January 24, 2019
8.0
445.0
Week 68
March 18, 2020
2.0
453.7
Week 69
March 25, 2020
1.6
455.4
Week 70
April 1, 2020
13.8
469.2
Week 71
April 8, 2020
15.2
484.4
Week 72
April 15, 2020
19.2
503.6
Week 72
April 22, 2020
15.0
518.6
Week 73
April 29, 2020
9.0
527.6
Week 74
May 6, 2020
4.6
532.2
Week 75
May 13, 2020
-0.7
531.5

Imports:
Crude Oil Imports




Week (week-over-week)
Week Ending
Raw Data, millions of bbls
Change (millions of bbls)
Four-week period comparison
Week 0
March 11, 2029
6.4
0.174

Week 1
March 18, 2020
6.5
0.127

Week 2
March 25, 2020
6.1
-0.422

Week 3
April 1, 2020
6.0
-0.070

Week 4
April 8, 2020
5.9
-0.173

Week 5
April 15, 2020
5.7
-0.194

Week 6
April 22, 2020
5.6
-0.700

Week 7
April 29, 2020
5.3
0.365
-19.700%
Week 8
May 6, 2020
5.7
0.410

Week 9
May 13, 2020
5.4
-0.321
-26.100%

Jet fuel delivered:
Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week


Week
Week Ending
Change
Week 0
March 11, 2020
-12.80%
Week 1
March 18, 2020
-12.60%
Week 2
March 25, 2020
-8.90%
Week 3
April 1, 2020
-16.40%
Week 4
April 8, 2020
-0.22%
Week 5
April 15, 2020
-39.70%
Week 6
April 22, 2020
-53.60%
Week 7
April 29, 2020
-61.60%
Week 8
May 6, 2020
-66.60%
Week 9
May 13, 2020
-68.50%
at