EIA Forecast For May, 2020, Crude Oil / Natural Gas Production -- May 19, 2020

Updates

Later, 11:02 a.m. CT: see comments --

Everyone misses the important part of that report: completions. The completion data is buried in the Excel file titled "DUC data (aggregated by region)" on the sidebar.

In sum, 705 wells were completed and brought into production in April, a decrease of 365 well completions from the 1,070 completions seen in March, and down from the 1,281 completions seen in April last year.

Completions: from the Director's Cut, Bakken completions going back to last year:

• March, 2020, preliminary: a whopping 120 wells were completed in March, 2020
• February, 2020, final: 57
• January, 2020, final: 70 (revised)
• December, 2019, final: 88 (revised)
• revenue forecast: 90
• November, 2019, final: 92
• October, 2019, final: 102
• September, 2019, final: 117 (revised up from 94) (revised a second time, up from 112)
• August, 2019, final: 102
• July, 2019, final: 137
• June, 2019, 102 (revised, last month's report); revised again, now, 123
• May, 2019, 113 (final)

Original Post

Headline: "Permian Basin leads decline in US shale." -- Link here.

Fact check. Link. Graphic:

The problem with the headline and the graphic: no percentages -- just raw data.

With percentages for the three main US shale crude oil plays:

Play: May / June / Change / Percent m-o-m:

• Bakken: 1,135  / 1,114 / 21 / 1.85% decrease
• Eagle Ford: 1,210 / 1,174 / 36 / 2.98% decrease
• Permian: 4,377 / 4,290 / 87 / 1.99% decrease

On a percentage basis, the Eagle Ford is predicted to have the biggest decline m-o-m in crude oil production. The Permian is forecast to come in second, and the Bakken, on a percentage basis, is projected to have the smallest decline.

Natural gas, decline on a month-over-month basis:

• Eagle Ford:  1.94%
  Permian: 1.3%
• Bakken: 0.94% (best in show; LOL)