Natural Gas Surprise This Winter? -- RBN Energy -- April 27, 2020

Bloom and gloom: I used to follow Bloom Energy fairly closely years ago, then lost interest when it appeared to be going nowhere. I happened to speak with an engineer who was acquainted with the technology and had actually toured the plant. For some reason, out of the blue he asked if I had ever heard of Bloom. Of course, I had. Later, I googled Bloom to see if there were any updates.  Wow, jackpot! Forbes investigation, published just a couple of months ago; one of the longer articles I've seen in Forbes. Link here. Archived. And what Motley Fool thinks.

Natural gas: could be a surprise this winter. See RBN Energy below. Natural gas fill rate, link here.

Natural gas: anecdotal -- I spoke to an individual in the natural gas arena over the weekend -- said the same thing.

ET: asks permission to turn pipelines into oil storage. ArgusMedia.

OPEC basket: $15.23.  Was $14.31 last Friday.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$13.42	4/27/2020	04/27/2019	04/27/2018	04/27/2017	04/27/2016
Active Rigs	30	64	62	48	27

Three permits coming off confidential list over the weekend, Monday --

Monday, April 27, 2020: 40 for the month; 40 for the quarter, 284 for the year:

• 35533, 997, Oasis, Merritt 5693 13-24 7T, Alger, producing, a 22K month; t11/19; cum 78K 2/20; frack data not yet scanned in over at NDIC; see jump in production at neighboring well;

Sunday, April 26, 2020: 39 for the month; 39 for the quarter, 283 for the year:

• 37007, SI/NC, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Chase Douglas 1A-32-29-159N-100W MBH, Blue Ridge, no production data, 

Saturday, April 25, 2020: 38 for the month; 38 for the quarter, 292 for the year:

• 36903, drl, PetroShale, Hickok Federal 1MBH, Bear Den, 

RBN Energy:Appalachian E&Ps' shares soar on forecasted associated gas decline. Archived.

COVID-related demand destruction and the oil price meltdown have engulfed energy markets and companies in a thick, pervasive shroud of doom and gloom. But investors and analysts have hit upon a potential bright spot for one segment of the industry: Gas-Weighted E&Ps that had been battered by the decade-long shift of upstream capital investment to crude-focused resource plays. The massive cutbacks in 2020 capital investment by oil producers triggered by the recent, dramatic decline in refinery demand for crude will reduce not only oil output, but associated gas production as well. That drop in supply raises the prospect of meaningful increases in natural gas prices in 2021 –– hence Wall Street’s new interest in Gas-Weighted producers, whose equity values have taken off in recent weeks after a big plunge earlier this year. There’s a lingering concern though, namely that LNG exports — a key driver of gas demand for U.S. producers — may be slowed by collapsing gas prices in key international markets. Today, we discuss what’s been going on. 

Over the past few years, associated gas production from the Permian, Bakken, Eagle Ford and other basins drove total supply growth that outpaced record growth in U.S. natural gas demand. The resulting imbalance steadily eroded Henry Hub prompt gas futures pricing to a recent low in the mid-$1.50s/MMBtu — a level not seen since 1995. The impact on the publicly traded Gas-Weighted E&Ps we track was dramatic, with the share prices of producers such as Range Resources, Southwestern Energy and Antero Resources plunging more than 95% through first-quarter 2020, from their 2013-14 highs. However, since April 1, share prices of the eight significant U.S. Gas-Weighted E&Ps — all Appalachia-focused — have risen sharply, with six of them more than doubling in price over the three-week period.