The Next Epidemic? March 19, 2020

Updates

June 27, 2020: for the archives.  

Original Post 

Coronavirus is officially an epidemic in many countries. Enough countries have declared coronavirus an epidemic that the disease it causes is now called a pandemic.

What is the definition of an epidemic in this country: for seasonal flu if the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza is 7.3% or greater, then by definition it's an epidemic.

How did "they" arrive at 7.3%. It has to do with the average number of cases over the years and the expected number of cases going forward. If the number of cases exceeds that forecast, in this case 7.3%, then seasonal flu will be considered an epidemic in the US.

I do not recall when "we" last exceeded the threshold for seasonal flu. For the past few months, when I've actually looked at the data (I really was not interested), I noted that the the percentage of deaths due to pneumonia and influenza as reported by the CDC was running pretty consistently, week-in and week-out at 6.9%.

In the most recent CDC weekly flu update, the number has jumped "significantly" (layman's terms) and is now at 7.1%. If it hits 7.3%, it's an epidemic.

Interestingly, for infants and children, it is an epidemic in the US but no one is talking about that. Another eight influenza-associated pediatric deaths occurring during the 2019 - 2020 season were reported this week. The total for the season is 144, which I believe has set a modern day record, and, if not, is coming close.

Link here.

I assume that eventually we will see more childhood deaths due to coronavirus, but even in Italy, last time I checked, there had been no pediatric deaths.

Later: it never made sense to me why why children have been under-reported with coronavirus compared to adults, but now we're starting to get reports. Youngest is two years old, reported in Ohio: https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-infects-ohio-2-year-old-the-youngest-in-the-state-to-contract-the-illness-to-date. 

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Meanwhile, Speaking of Italy and Coronavirus

Another link between the disease and Italy: Gucci.

A reader sent me this link.

My reply:

It is also interesting that one of the biggest US sectors outside of nursing homes? Hollywood. And who is more "fashion" than Hollywood?

But again, it's the 300,000 Chinese in northern Italy that probably is the best explanation: purses don't kill people, people carrying Wuhan flu do.

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Recipe

A reader sent me this recipe to take my mind off things, telling me it would cure almost any malady.