The Daily Note -- Morning Edition --March 20, 2020

IRS: officially extends deadline to July 15, 2020. Why not just make it August 1, 2020? What's with the 15th? Whatever. Huge windfall. This is truly amazing. Previously reported over at ZeroHedge but I was waiting for the official announcement. I will send a letter to my tax accountant that I want to take advantage of the extension.

The Minnesota experience: you betcha.

The Texas experience: well, I'll be gosh-darned. Governor Greg Abbot of Texas yesterday, paraphrasing: "Effective midnight tonight, everything is closed except gas stations, grocery stores, banks, and parks. This is not shelter-in-place. People are to go about their normal business. Assemblies larger than ten people are not allowed. This is only temporary. The order remains in effect until April 3, 2020, at which time it will be extended if necessary."

Waffle House: you know, it just occurred to me. Waffle House has survived almost everything but it did not survive coronavirus. Pretty sad. And it was also noted on talk radio this morning that this is the first time this country has shut down for a pandemic. I think it's the first time the country has shut down for anything. Except the holidays.

A reader asked whether this will flatten the curve? It appears that the coronavirus curve will be much like the dreaded Bakken decline curve. For many reasons, there will be a huge increase in the number of cases, and then there will be a gradual decline, taking several months -- just like the Bakken -- and then the curve will flatten out but the virus will be with us "forever." We'll have as many new cases three weeks from now, if not more, than were reported yesterday. Then it gets really interesting.

By the way, an increase in the number of cases reported does not necessarily mean there are more cases in actuality. One wonders how many cases of "seasonal flu" were really Wuhan flu earlier this year (January - February) before testing began. There is now a blood test, I am being told, that can test whether you have had Wuhan flu in the past. The ELISA test is available in Singapore. I assume the FDA / CDC prohibit use of that test in this country.

Anyway, enough of this. Perhaps more later.

Tom Thumb metric: I will now add a new metric to the blog, the "Tom Thumb" metric. Tom Thumb is one of our handful of big grocery stores in the area, along with HEB, Central Market, Albertsons, Sprouts, Whole Foods, Market Street, and Aldi. Our particular Tom Thumb is a two-minute walk from our apartment complex, 30 seconds on the bike. I now walk though Tom Thumb every morning to do a "walkaround." Today's report:

• the empty shelves beget continued panic;
• in fact, one can truly find everything one needs; the selection is simply not as great;
• "no" cleaning products and no toilet paper;
• fresh produce: overflowing bins; I did not notice a shortage of anything;
• beef: selection way down; many empty shelves; but more than enough beef available;
• eggs: overflowing in quantity; limited to one dozen per transaction;
• everything else? normal, normal, normal;
• aisles full of carts with boxes of grocery items to be shelves;
• more employees than I have ever seen stocking shelves;
• Philadelphia Cream: a huge shipment just arrived -- which reminds me, I was going to get a bagel for my own Philadelphia Cream Cheese that is in the refrigerator; will have to go back later;

I picked up two ears of corn (33 cents each) but put them back after seeing that the checkout lines were way too long: three people in the "express" line; and three people each in the regular two lines (yes, that was the extent of the panic buying this morning, but I will go back when it slows down to get those two ears of corn).

No cleaning supplies? I suggested Amazon. Was told Amazon was "also out." Not accurate. A two-week delay, but in fact, put in your order now, and my hunch you will get your cleaning supplies more quickly than warned.

It is interesting. I am now, like 99%-of-everything-I-buy will be through Amazon. The  more I do that, the stickier my fingers get, and even when this coronavirus thing is over, I will still buy 99% of everything I need/don't need through Amazon. Yesterday, I was going to go to Walmart to buy a new bicycle security chain. Nope, didn't need the hassle. Ordered it last night. Message this morning: chain has shipped. Will arrive tomorrow.

I have had some kitchen items on my "wish" list for a year or so. Yesterday, I ordered those on Amazon. Saves me a trip to Walmart, Target, and/or the Container store.

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Sheltering-In-Place

If coronavirus wasn't keeping me indoors the record amount of rain the Dallas area is receiving would.

Entertainment options are limitless:

• TCM (part of the expensive cable television package, but I consider TCM free; it's everything else on cable I'm paying for  -- in addition to the expensive sports stations that no longer have live sports -- but that's another story)
• Pluto television (free; no subscription); Pluto television is quite remarkable, to say the least;
• Amazon Echo/Alexa: gets more incredible every day; or perhaps, better said, I keep finding more and better things on Alexa;

Reading, blogging

Cooking and baking

Grilling (once the weather clears)

Photography

Unlimited time with Sophia starting this weekend; her TutorTime has closed indefinitely

• Lego
• chess
• learn-how-electricity works: kits
• microscopy (Sophia wants to see the coronavirus): we don't have an electron microscope but we do have a professional-grade Bausch-and-Lomb; if you don't have one, it is amazing how inexpensive they are over at Amazon
• Next week -- once the weather clears -- will be the week that Sophia learns to ride her bicycle; she's been on it many times but still needs help; training wheels have been often since last fall;
• flashcards
• Bob books
• painting, drawing, arts and crafts in general
• iPad Procreate (incredible)

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Texas -- I Could Not Have Said It Better Myself

From Power Line:

The economic devastation that is now playing out before our eyes is not caused by the Wuhan flu virus. In the last 21 days, approximately 162,000 Americans have died. Of that number, 150 were killed by the Wuhan virus. If governments at all levels had done nothing, other than eliminating regulatory barriers to the deployment of already-existing medicines, would the virus have killed more Americans? Yes, that is what flu bugs do. Would it kill more than the 13,000 or so who have died from this year’s seasonal flu virus? Who knows? More than the estimated 80,000 who were killed by the flu in the U.S. just two years ago? I doubt it: world-wide, it has killed only a little more than one-tenth that number.

The answers to those questions are speculative, but this is not: by dictating a virtual cessation of economic activity, governments at all levels, but especially state and local, are causing an economic collapse the likes of which, if it continues, we have not seen since the Great Depression, if ever. When has such a government-caused disaster comparably devastated a non-socialist country? Not often. The inflation of the Weimar Republic comes to mind.

I agree with the Wall Street Journal editorial that Scott quoted from this morning, but I think it is too mild. Here is a prediction: the deaths of Americans caused by the Wuhan flu bug will be dwarfed by the suicides committed by people whose life’s savings have been wiped out, whose businesses have been bankrupted, whose jobs have been lost, and whose prospects have been blighted by the insane overreaction we now see from our governments. That overreaction must stop. Right now. Before it is too late, if it is not too late already.

Those kids that went down to south Texas for spring break? Good for them. We need more of that. A bit of civil disobedience. Maybe a lot of civil disobedience.

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Flattening the Curve

A reader asked me if "flattening the curve" would really help? My reply:

It appears that the coronavirus curve will be much like the dreaded Bakken decline curve.

For many reasons, there will be a huge increase in the number of cases, and then there will be a gradual decline, taking several months -- just like the Bakken -- and then the curve will flatten out but the virus will be with us "forever." We'll have as many new cases three weeks from now, if not more, than were reported yesterday. Then it gets really interesting.

The bigger question is this: does it matter whether we flatten the curve or not? Like the EUR, the ultimate number of cases should remain approximately the same. Just spread out over time. Perhaps there will be some decrease, but we will never know to what extent things really changed by "flattening the curve." 

Flattening the curve served one big purpose: to give the medical sector time to prepare and spread out the number of serious cases requiring hospitalization. But the bigger problem as I see it: Americans are now conditioned to hunker down for as long as it takes to eradicate this virus.

We've been trying for decades to eradicate polio, and it is still not eradicated despite the fact that we have a vaccine. It will be interesting to see how the "state" determines when it's save to return to normalcy. If based on the number of cases, it's going to be months. Trump already alluded to that -- suggesting it could be late summer or even September, 2020.