Notes From All Over -- Late Evening Edition -- March 27, 2020

Breaking news: "seasonal flu" is now an epidemic. 

Inflation:

Demand:

Canada:

From thebalancecareers:

Retirees (those who spend at least 20 years in the military and draw retired pay) can be recalled to active duty for life. However, the policy established in DOD Directive 1352.1 - Management and Mobilization of Regular and Reserve Retired Military Members, makes the recall to active duty unlikely for those who have been retired for more than five years, and those over age 60.

Wuhan flu, US: the more testing that is done, the more cases that will be reported in the US. The number of cases will have little correlation with the number of new deaths. However, over time, case fatality rate (CFR) will keep declining. The number of those testing positive for the virus (denominator) will climb much faster than the number of deaths due to the coronavirus (numerator). As the denominator climbs faster than the number of deaths, the CFR will decline. My hunch: the US wuhan flu CFR will be less than 1%. Example: as of today, in the US, 80,000 cases, and 1,500 deaths (CFR = 1.875%). Assume the actual number who would test positive if "all" were tested were double (which is probably very likely), then 1,500 / 160,000 = a CFR of 0.9375%. Hospitalizations is probably the most important data point.

Wuhan flu: the president has given the Pentagon authority to activate retired military personnel. One would assume this is directed towards health professionals. Medical technicians and nurses would be in most demand; then physicians. 

The president would probably get more support from Elon Musk:

President Donald Trump announced Friday that his economic adviser, Peter Navarro, would serve as the coordinator of the Defense Production Act.

The president announced the news after issuing an order to General Motors to mobilize their resources to manufacture ventilators to help the fight the coronavirus.
Navarro praised Trump’s order for sending a strong message to the private sector that he meant business.

“We’re engaged in the most central mobilization since World War II,” Navarro said. “We have a wartime president fighting an invisible enemy.”

Navarro said that ventilators were essential for patients infected with the virus,
“All around this country, as this virus bears down, the ventilators are the most important thing for patients who become seriously ill. They are literally the lifeline for people,” he said.

Navarro said that nearly all of the private companies responded to requests from the federal government with patriotic speed, but he said the administration had run into “roadblocks” with General Motors.

“Hopefully, General Motors will join in the fray,” Trump said.

Oil production: it will be a hoot when Peter Navarro "invites" directs oil companies to produce oil at the same level as CY19.