Daily Note, Early Morning Edition -- March 22, 2020

Not-ready-for-prime-time.

The following is an e-mail which I sent to a reader earlier this morning based on a number of conversations over the past few days.

Bloomberg's billions to defeat Trump: I don't know if you saw the article, but remember when Mini-Mike Bloomberg said he was going to spend a billion dollars to get rid of Trump even if he (Bloomberg) withdrew from the campaign. It turns out Bloomberg dissolved his super-PAC; gave his paltry $18 million (remember, he spent $500 million on his own campaign) that was left over from his own failed campaign to the DNC for use in battleground states; and, laid off his staffers after telling them months ago he would pay them a high wage/salary through the end of the year.

Mini-strokes for different folks: TIAs as an explanation for Biden's gaffes-- can't remember his wife's name? Among all the rest of Biden's problems, I do think he gets so excited, he talks faster than his brain can keep up -- it''s actually quite common among elderly, but even among some of the younger set -- they want to get an idea out, momentarily block on something ("tip of the tongue") -- so I think it's simply a combination of things when he has those moments on stage. But his biggest problem: signs of pre-senile dementia or, truth-be-told, senile dementia. Probably not mini-strokes. Even mini-strokes, despite being "mini" have much more serious signs and symptoms. But if every gaffe was due to a TIA, it would be hard to call them "transient" any more.

"You say tomâto, I say tomāto: JPMorgan Chase --purely coincidental. The other day I was talking about the difference between and economic recession and an economic depression. The former has a pretty good definition; the latter, no one agrees on except in very, very general terms. It is simply said that a depression lasts years and has an unemployment rate of 20%. That's what I posted based on a financial site that discussed the difference between recessions and depressions. Current first time claims for unemployment insurance are about 300,000. JPM Chase on Friday said this next week unemployment would hit 20% from the current 3.5%. I'll post the screenshot later today. A 20% unemployment rate next week will get folks' attention. And 20% unemployment is one-half of the "depression" equation. The other is time.

Italy: The Italy experience is fascinating, and no one has offered a good explanation. A new record for a country setting records for weeks: 7,000 new cases in 24 hours and 800 new deaths. France is headed there, Spain probably. It's getting much worse each day. And yet China and South Korea both seem to have it under control. For the fourth day, China reports no new cases and no new deaths in the epicenter, in the Hubei Province or Wuhan city. Italy: Catholic communion (sharing of sacramental wine); high population density; oldest population in the western world; public health system overwhelmed from the start; 300,000 Chinese living and working in northern Italy ("One Belt One Road" initiative with China); and, a very, very social country. It's a combination of things. When I go to look at news (last 48 hours) in Italy where Wuhan flu is at its worse -- Lombardy -- they are still "functioning," in that the region has not collapsed into Armageddon or chaos. Evidence: in the midst of this, there's an article about how wineries and vineyards are coping. Really?

Frodo: His brother is, all of a sudden, in the news, as a possible answer to Trump in the general election in November. For that to happen, Democrats are going to have change all the rules to nominate anyone other than Biden. Unless of course, Biden is at least one delegate short of winning on the first ballot. Then the super-delegates can choose whom they want. Cuomo, Hillary, Frodo. So, I think we're back to a brokered convention but if it's brokered, it can only happen under extreme circumstances. See next paragraph.

Re-calculating: Democrat delegate count: 2,273 delegates have been awarded, including two for Tulsi Gabbard.

• Biden: 1,201
• Sanders: 896
• Total to be awarded: 3,981
• Yet to be awarded: 3,981 - 2,273 = 1,708
• 60% of 1,708 = 1,025
• 1,025 plus the awarded-1,201 = 2,050 for Biden

And if one looks at the states that are left (quite a few actually), I think under "normal" conditions, Biden would get a lot more than 60% at this point.

There's no way Biden is not going to go into the DNC without a commanding lead and well over 2,000 votes when only 1,991 are needed.

UNLESS.

This is one way the DNC could stop the Biden train. Because of Wuhan flu, cancel all remaining primaries (I believe one state did "postpone" its primary).

Analogy: NASCAR. When NASCAR gets in more than 50% of a race, if the race is halted for an extended period of time, like rain, they call the race at that point. Likewise, due to Wuhan flu, the DNC could "call the race" and take "what they have" to the DNC. The problem is this: of the 1,708 delegates yet to be awarded, which delegates get to go -- Biden's or Bernie's? Obviously you can't invite them all. One possibility: only super-delegates of states who do not hold primaries will go to the DNC convention.That seems fair for a party that wants to get ride of the electoral college.

Hillary: re-calculating, re-calculating, re-calculating. Haven't heard a peep out of her. I haven't seen anything about her podcast either.

The dog that didn't bark (Sir Arthur Conan Doyle): Back to Wuhan flu. It's fascinating to look at the countries not affected. The entire continent of Africa has almost no cases, and no deaths. Obviously the first thing folks will counter with: no one is testing in Africa. Okay. But countries like South Africa (240 cases, no deaths) and Kenya (7 cases, no deaths) may not be testing and may not be reporting illnesses, but they are good at counting deaths, and they have pretty "modern" health systems and very, very good bureaucracies good at counting. So, one may choose to not believe the numbers coming out of Africa, but then the question becomes why is the World Health Organization (WHO) not providing numbers coming out of Africa? They do a great job counting Ebola cases. WHO is huge in Africa. I don't know: Who is huge in Africa? WHO is huge in Africa. Don't get me started.