Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- Iowa: Sanders Wins Popular Vote; Buttigieg Declared Winner -- John Hess Says It Is The Beginning Of The End -- February 5, 2020

John Hess says it's all over -- well, not quite, but the future for US shale not a bright one. If history is any guide, Hess will join Mark Papa in his US shale forecasts.

Production in the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas is starting to plateau, while the Bakken field in North Dakota where Hess is a major producer will hit its peak production levels within the next two years, said Hess, who spoke Tuesday in Houston at the Argus Americas Crude Summit.

The good news: we will run out of oil just as EVs make up 95% of the global automotive market. 

By the way, I completely missed this. It appears Mark Papa has moved on. He is now the chairman of Schlumberger. Schlumberger is tapping as its chairman an executive who earned a reputation for building shale producers that bypass oil service companies.

Mark Papa, 72, who will take over as chairman of the world’s biggest oilfield service provider next month, helped give birth to the U.S. shale boom a decade ago by building Enron Corp. castoff EOG Resources Inc. into one of the nation’s biggest explorers. He’s now running Centennial Resource Development Inc.

In his new role, Papa will help Schlumberger’s next chief executive officer, Olivier Le Peuch, tackle an industry downturn as investors pressure producers to rein in spending and return cash to shareholders. Le Peuch, 55, and Papa will replace Paal Kibsgaard, 51, who’s stepping down as chairman and CEO.

A key Papa trademark is bypassing technology from the oilfield servicers, opting instead for in-house innovations. It’s what led Paul Sankey, then an analyst at Wolfe Research, to dub EOG under Papa’s watch the “APPL of oil,” referring to the trading symbol for Apple Inc. Papa did that again at Centennial, hiring key former EOG executives to help make technology one of the pillars of his new company.

Meanwhile, back in New Hampshire:

February 5, 2020, day 399: the most recent New Hampshire polls, Suffolk, 2/3 - 2/4; and, Emerson, 2/3 - 2/4 show wide divergence between the two polls:

• Sanders: 24% in Suffolk, 32% in Emerson
• Biden: 15% and 13% (oh-oh)
• Buttigieg: has already declared victory and has left for South Carolina; 15% and 17%
• Pocahontas (obviously her neighbors to the north know her well): 10% and 11%
• the others remain irrelevant but for the record, punching above her weight, and a legend in her own mind, Klobuchar is polling at 11% and 6%

If the polling holds, Sanders could be a 2 -1 winner in New Hampshire. Biden might escape with a ...

... hey, how about a golf analogy --

• Sanders is looking at an eagle
• Buttigieg is looking at a birdie, will probably end up with a par; will give himself an eagle;
• Pocahontas: a bogey
• Biden: will be looking for his ball in the rough 
• the others? pretty much spectators, like the rest of us

Talking points: this is most interesting.

The DNC party leaders do not want to discuss a "brokered convention." When pressed, they will not provide any thoughts on who wins/loses in a brokered convention. This speaks volumes. It's clear DNC talking heads have been given their talking points on this issue. It's clear it will be a brokered convention and DNC super-delegates will pick the Democrat nominee. Bernie will win, and win, and win. He won't win every primary, but he will win many of them, and the may win the most important primaries (or come in close second) and yet his delegate count will not be enough to win on the first vote. 

From the party that complains about the electoral college. With 71% of the precincts reporting, CBS News:

• Buttigieg: 31,322 caucus attendees, first round; 32,673 in the second round;
• Sanders: 27,418; then, 31,353;
• Pocahontas: 24,041, then, 25,692;
• Biden: 18,814, then wow wow wow 16,447
• Klobuchar: 16,345, then, 15,470
• Yang: 6,713; then, 1,301
• Steyer: 2,243; then, 275

71% of Precincts	1st Vote	1st Vote	2nd Vote	2nd Vote	Comment
Buttigieg	31,322	24.68%	32,673	26.52%
Sanders	27,418	21.61%	31,353	25.45%
Pocahontas	24,041	18.95%	25,692	20.85%
Biden	18,814	14.83%	16,447	13.35%	Never hit the 15% threshold
Klobuchar	16,345	12.88%	15,470	12.56%	Never hit the 15% threshold
Yang	6,713	5.29%	1,301	1.06%
Steyer	2,243	1.77%	275	0.22%
Total Votes	126,896		123,211

How does one's numbers drop from the first vote to the second vote:

• first vote: if you are standing with a "viable" group -- at least 15% of total number of folks at that caucus, that is your final vote; you cannot move
• first vote: if you are standing with a "non-viable" group -- less than 15% of the total number of folks at that caucus, you can move to (realign with) a second group, which may or may not become a viable group
• so, in Biden's case above, there were a number of caucuses in which he was unable to put together a "viable" group -- he couldn't get an initial 15% of voters in that particular caucus to stand with him; after that first vote, those Biden folks moved (realigned) elsewhere -- probably to one of the top three, maybe to Klobuchar
• same with Klobuchar, Yang, Steyer

Dividend announcements:

• 3M: increases dividend to $1.47; paying 3.74%
• AFLAC: increases dividend to 28 cents; paying 2.15%
• COP maintains dividend at 42 cents