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Sunday, February 16, 2020

Key Data Points From The December, 2019, Oil And Natural Gas Production, North Dakota (Bakken) -- February 16, 2020

Key data points from the December, 2019, production data coming out of North Dakota:
  • after the final figures came in, North Dakota set a new all-time production record in November, 2019;
    • crude oil: 1,519,037 (but just barely; beating the previous all-time high, the previous month, by 1,101 bopd)
    • natural gas: 3,165,585 MCF/day
    • boe: 1,985,573 boepd
  • note: these were all preliminary figures; final figures will be released in the March, 2020, Director's Cut;
  • crude oil production in December was one of the bigger month-over-month decreases in quite some time; this was all about a) managing their assets; and, b) taking wells off line for operational reasons
    • the number of producing wells dropped below 16,000, the first time that has happened since September, 2019, when it hit another all-time high at 16,115 producing wells; current all-time  high for producing wells: October, 2019, at 16,169 producing wells;
      • price of oil was trending down; coronavirus scare was crushing demand
      • continued pad drilling and new fracking
    • number of wells coming off-line month-over-month (December/November) was 233 or an increase of 8.8%
    • there are now 2,878 wells off line
    • the actual number of wells off line any given month remains in a narrow range, probably about 2,500
    • it appears, in raw numbers, September, 2019, hit an all-time high for the number of wells off line: 3,020; September, 2019, was a record-setting month for rain; it was a "disaster" in the oil patch; production fells 2.5% month-over-month;
    • this is about twice as many as the number of new wells that will be drilled in 2020
    • in fact, there were 111 completions in December, 2019, which is about average for the Bakken, but it means a lot of neighboring wells are taken off-line during fracking operations
  • takeaway capacity is not an issue
  • gas capture is trending, albeit slowly, in the right direction
  • about a month ago there were any number of stories in the mainstream media about E&P companies, feeling the stress of low oil prices, were slowing their new drilling and focusing on completing DUCs; 
    • I posted at the time that this was most likely (if accurate) occurring in the Permian
    • anecdotally I was not seeing it in the Bakken
    • and there, it was, in the December data, the number of DUCs in the Bakken increased by 39 wells, from 919 to 958 (preliminary)
    • 958 is a high number but not the highest; the record was 985 in May, 2019;
    • I haven't done the percentages; but on a raw number basis, the number of DUCs is increasing in the Bakken, not decreasing
    • supports my "thesis" that when the mainstream media talks about trends in US shale, they are focusing on the Permian, not the Bakken

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