Idle Rambling; Not Ready For Prime Time -- All Politics -- February 27, 2020

When it comes to politics, the three polls I trust the least:

• Fox News
• The Economist
• CNN

The other pollsters I don't trust much either, but those three have the least credibility with me.

Perhpas Quinnipiac is one of the better ones.

But this is very, very interesting.

The Economist is about as liberal one can get; Fox News is about as conservative as one can get.

But in the national 2020 Democrat presidential race, Fox News and the Economist are showing almost identical results:

• Bernie: 30% (Economist); 31% (Fox News)
• Biden: 18% (Economist); 20% (Fox News)

The Hill is similar: 28% for Bernie; 17% for Biden.

The other polls are showing the same thing.

Again, this is a national poll so it may not mean a thing with regard to delegates. Hillary (and others in the past) have won the popular vote but not the presidency.

Good, bad, indifferent, those numbers do not excite me one way or the other. This is what caught my attention: since January, Bernie Sanders has jumped 8 points (31%) while Joe Biden has dropped 8 points (18%).

That's a huge shift.

On top of that, people like Nancy Pelosi are publicly warming up to Bernie Sanders. 

South Carolina: it looks like Biden could have a huge win. He would be doing even better if Tom Steyer and Buttigieg weren't taking votes from him. Everything suggests that Bernie will max out at 25% in South Carolina regardless of who else is running. Clyburn's endorsement was huge; herd mentality is strong in South Carolina (as it is in California and many [most] other states.

As I go through the rest of the states, it's a real toss-up: either Sanders gets the nomination in Milwaukee on the first vote, or he comes close, with no one having a majority on the first vote.

I'm not making light of this, but the Milwaukee brewery shooting today could very well ... how do I put this delicately ... let's do it from the other side of the coin: if Bernie doesn't get the nomination on the first vote and then loses on the second vote, all hell is going to break loose in that convention hall.

For the MAGA Trumpers, the question is this: who is worse for America. Not worse for Trump, but worse for America. I won't show my cards on that one, but like everything else on which I opine, I know I'm right. LOL. Sometimes I wonder how my wife can live with me. LOL.

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Bloomberg

Let's look at Bloomberg for a minute. Looking at momentum shifts and huge advertising campaign, the following is a real possibility. The following does not show up in the most recent polls, but if one looks at momentum and a huge advertising push, and no more debates, one could defend the following:

• Texas: a three-way, maybe four-way tie -- Bernie, Biden, Bloomberg ... Pocahontas.
• Virginia: much like Texas .... Bernie wins but Bloomberg, Biden hang in there. This may be the end for Buttigieg. Along with his showing in South Carolina.

So, Bloomberg could do well in a couple of states. Unfortunately for Bloomberg, the momentum in those few states won't help in the rest of Super Tuesday states -- they are all voting at the same time.

• California: Bloomberg -- no chance at all, and no delegates. Sanders will take this one easily, but not decisively enough to take more than half the delegates.
• Minnesota: Bloomberg --  no chance at all, and no delegates.
• Minnesota: Klobuchar (huge win) but Sanders will do well (again, the delegate count favors a brokered convention)
• Florida: could be another huge win for Biden

Every time I go through this list, pushing for one of the candidates to get enough delegates on the first vote, I can never get there. Neither can James Carville. Bernie won't get any delegates in Florida. It's hard to win a majority of delegates on the first vote if you can't even get a single delegate in Florida. And Georgia will be just as tough.

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Money

With the implosion of the stock market, this is the end of huge donations for Klobuchar, Buttigieg, Biden, Pocahontas. No matter how rich one is, a 25% loss in net worth gets one's attention.

South Carolina is going to give Biden bragging rights, but he is still going to run out of money, sooner than later.

Money wins. That leaves Bernie, Bloomberg, and Steyer.