From A Reader -- Update On US Oil And Natural Gas Production -- By State -- Monthly Revisions -- February 1, 2020

These came in as three separate comments from a reader posted elsewhere. I will bring them up as a stand-alone post for easier access, commenting and the archives. This has to do with record-setting oil and gas production in the US.

First comment, actual November, 2020 crude oil data:

EIA 914 for NOV:

www.eia.gov/...

US was up over 200,000 bopd from October (slightly revised up).

Oil states and changes in order of current size down to 50,000 bopd:

State November, 2020: change in thousands of bbls

• U.S. Total :12,879 203 (up 200,000 bopd from October)
• Texas: 5,329 65
• Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico: 1,995 91
• North Dakota: 1,479 (3)
• New Mexico: 1,063 59
• Oklahoma: 575 (17)
• Colorado: 562 7
• Alaska: 485 10
• California: 425 (6)
• Wyoming: 293 2
• Louisiana: 122 2
• Utah: 102 1
• Kansas: 87 (1)
• Ohio: 78 (8)
• Montana: 68 4
• West Virginia: 51 (2)
• Others: 168 (2)

TX made a nice showing at +65. So much for the "peaked Permian. I sorta want +75s. But +65 is still commendable.

As I expected, FGOM made a nice rebound at almost +100. One that I warned the naysayers about. Now, if they can do a bit more (gotta be above 2 MM for street cred), that will still help with the 13 banger.

ND flat (down slightly) as expected. We get the NDIC early so know the directionality. DEC may be tough too because of winter, could even be down some reasonable amount (-25?).

NM...ah the Land of Enchantment! OCT was actually revised UP and crossed the 1 MM bopd marker. And then we got an outstanding +59 from them for the NOV number. I sort of count on them for +25 each month, so that was great work. Just no slacking off in DEC please. Need at least another +25 to get my 13 banger, with taunting rights.

OK: I can't figure this state out. And neither can anyone else. It's even funkier than CO in how the numbers move. But...well the bloom is off the rose hard for the Anadarko. Seems like it's showing in the rig counts and then the production (-17). Still...a quixotic jog up next month would help the cause.

CO: Eh...close to flat (+7). Could use a little bit more next month. Especially since I sort of group OK and CO together. So put down the doobies and cover up for your slacking mountain boomer brethren.

AK: Up +10 and every bit helps. But most of it's seasonal rebound was a couple months ago. At this point, we actually know the AK figures for DEC (from STEO/weeklies) off of pipe flow. And should be flat in DEC.

CA: Down a bit. Still lots of oil left in this state but impossible to do business with the liberals in control. Continues it's slow decline. Probably flat in DEC.

WY: Close to flat at +2. Flat seems reasonable expectation for DEC.

LA: See WY.

UT and KS: See WY but +1, -1.

OH: Kind of a big drop. But they have a lot of recent wells that are high decline. And have been extremely sensitive to oil (and even gas) prices in the past, both up and down. Given situation, have to expect another small decline in DEC.

MT: Kind of strange how this state has been stealthily climbing up, last few months. Nice +4 gain and in striking distance of three-quarters of 100,000 bopd. Realistically DEC will probably be small decline, based on weather and activity.

WV: Down a couple but hanging in the 50+ club. How many people realize the App makes significant oil! Paging James "I have more citations than you do" Hamilton!

Others: Down 2, close to flat and only 168,000 left total. Nothing significant within the states to get that down 2. Expect continued small declines, maybe a couple more, in DEC. Tired old states like IL and MI and the like. MS is the closest to crossing into the 50+ club (at 48), but there's no activity there, so not gonna happen.

Second comment: forecast data, crude oil, for December, 2020:

By state or region:

• TX: +65 (like +75 but being reasonable)
• FGOM: +25 (I still think there is more to give back from hurricane return.)
• ND: -25 (flat would be nice, but being reasonable given weather)
• NM: +25 (worried about a relapse after so much growth...but then also the growth is a Bayesian indicator for more...so fine, +25)
• AK: +5 (too lazy to check, but think there's a little more maintenance recovery)
• All others: -10 (matching last month change)

Total change: +85.

This would give us a 12.964. Sorta rounds out to a 13.0. But I'm not sure if I can taunt based off of that. Perhaps not. It's not really a 13-handle.

Still, it will be a nailbiter. If ND could "hold the line" that would be an extra 25 and get us up to 12.989. Then...if TX could scrunch down and give us the +75 instead of the +65, that would get us to 12.999! Ai yi yi! Need OK/CO to do some little statistical randomness wiggle and give us an uptick (any uptick) and all others hold the line in order to get our taunting rights.

Third comment, natural gas, November data and some December forecasts:

Not gonna analyze the gas in detail.

www.eia.gov/...

But still, you're looking at over 107 BCF/d wet in lower 48. (Always have to separate out AK gas as it is stranded.)

PA is kissingly close to 20 BCF/d (19.911). Has a chance to hit it in DEC.

TX went up ~0.2 BCF/d last month and is close to 30 BCF/d. But probably a bit too far to get there in DEC. "Only" 29.337 now.