A Closer Look At The Two Wells That Came Off Confidential List Today -- February 12, 2020

I get a kick out of folks telling me that "monster" wells represent a tiny fraction of all the wells drilled in the Bakken.

That's correct.

I won't argue.

But then this. These are the two wells that came off the confidential list today (see below). Neither well was particularly remarkable for wells being reported in 2019 - 2020. These are very, very mediocre wells from my point of view in the overall scheme of things. But compare these two wells with the wells that were being reported in 2008 - 2012.

These 2019 - 2020 wells are huge in comparison.

The wells reported in 2008 - 2012 were "lucky" to hit 100,000 bbls in two years. Now, it's a downer if a Bakken well doesn't hit 100,000 bbls in the first six months.

Also, note the small number of stages in these two wells. In addition, one well used a relatively small amount of sand, the other, much more sand.

The wells:

• 35883, 771, Liberty Resources, Haley 158-93-29-32-10MBH, 27 stages; 10.8 million lbs; East Tioga, t8/19; cum 84K 12/19;
  

  Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
  BAKKEN	12-2019	31	12821	12824	27030	19391	18005	1386
  BAKKEN	11-2019	30	17254	17075	32828	22002	21903	99
  BAKKEN	10-2019	29	18518	19143	36882	23081	22776	305
  BAKKEN	9-2019	30	21213	20269	43747	27694	24225	3469
  BAKKEN	8-2019	21	13743	13176	49340	19004	16143	2861




• 28194, 864, Oasis, Lewis Federal 5300 21-31 5B, 35 stages; 6 million lbs; Baker, t8/19; cum 110K 12/19;

  BAKKEN	12-2019	31	24968	24993	22021	35133	18155	16761
  BAKKEN	11-2019	23	18655	18652	14133	22141	16465	5515
  BAKKEN	10-2019	31	27716	27835	27051	28027	22607	5203
  BAKKEN	9-2019	30	26888	26786	29143	24662	22938	1514
  BAKKEN	8-2019	13	12150	11995	13557	10642	10266	285

By the way, Lynn Helms tells us that "they" are getting close to drilling out the Tier 1 areas in the Bakken. I will "never " disagree / argue with the Director, NDIC. He knows this stuff better than anyone. Having said that, note that the two wells above were middle Bakken wells. Operators still have the Three Forks. When I see no more middle Bakken wells being drilled, and 100% of new wells being drilled are Three Forks wells, then I will know that things have changed.