The Democrat Presidential Nomination Race -- Idle Rambling -- January 9, 2020

With several new polls out, nothing has changed. These are the likely scenarios, based on current polling. State to watch: California. Buttigieg will do well in California but not enough to make up for the delegates he won't get in the other states.

• brokered convention: 
• most likely of the several scenarios assuming no skullduggery by the DNC movers and shakers, Hillary, Bill, Michelle, and/or Barack, prior to the convention (huge, huge assumption);
• no one candidate has 50% +1 of the delegates going into first vote
• no second-tier candidate has enough delegates to release to change first-vote outcome
• goes to second round and super-delegates (i.e., Hillary, Bill, Michelle, and Barack) get their nominee
• scenario #2:
• Pocahontas faces by Super Tuesday; spoiler role only;
• prior to first vote, Biden has just under 50%;
• Steyer, Yang, Klobuchar release their delegates to support Sanders
• Pocahontas refuses to release delegates
• first vote: Sanders, close to 50% but misses; Biden in second; 
• second vote (brokered convention) forced
• scenario #3:
• Pocahontas does well enough on Super Tuesday to be king-maker;
• prior to first vote, Biden has just under 50%;
• releasing her delegates on first vote, Pocahontas could give Sanders the nomination
• she is promised VP 
• king-maker? Buttigieg -- 
• in all scenarios, if it's that close, Buttigieg could release delegates to get the nominee he wants
• I don't see Pocahontas as the king-maker, except possibly threatening to release her delegates to support Sanders
• Buttigieg's best change: VP under Biden (no pun intended)
• at the end of the day: 
• Sanders on the first vote, or,
• brokered convention and super-delegates pick nominee 
• Pocahontas or Buttigieg, in exchange for a VP promise, give the nomination to Sanders or Biden in first round of voting;
• odds:
• Sanders, on the first vote: 10% chance that will happen
• brokered convention and super-delegates get their nominee: 90% chance that will happen

My hunch is that, except for Biden, every other Democrat running for the nomination will do everything in his/her power to keep this from going to the second round of voting when they -- the hopeful candidates -- will lose all relevancy.

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The Book Page

Lamarck's Revenge: How Epigenetics Is Revolutionizing Our Understanding of Evolution's Past and Present, Peter Ward, c. 2018.

Price:

• Amazon, hard cover: $11.20 (free with points/cash back); today/now;
• Barnes and Noble: $37 with 10% off as a B&N member; tomorrow, maybe the next day;

Don't let me over-think this.