Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- January 2, 2020

Market, early morning, first trading day of the new year.

• Dow futures up 151 points (6:09 a.m. CT, January 2, 2020)
• NASDAQ: could open up 57 points
• S&P 500: could open up 16 points
• AAPL: up $2.19; could open above $295; P/E of almost 25
• EW: down $2.18
• T: up half a percent

What's going on? Actually quite a lot. We've discussed sixteen reasons in the past. But today's story line: "China stimulated its economy." Huge headline but if that's all it takes to move the Dow almost 200 points, I must be missing something. China simply cut the amount of money banks would be required to have on hand, starting this week. I assume the fact that we don't have Iranian-held US hostages in Iraq and that the "protest" ended in less than 48 hours had some effect. The NY Times called the Iranian-backed militia, "mourners," and the WSJ called them "protesters." Someone noted that the attack on Fort Sumter, back in 1861, by the South Carolina militia, using the same analogy, was simply a "protest movement." 

By the way, is it "protestors" or "protesters"? Answer here.  Or here.

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Bowl games: other than for the schools themselves, the college bowl games seemed to have lost all relevancy now that we have the championship playoff system. I noted that about a year ago but had not heard that view expressed elsewhere (I'm sure it had; I just missed it). But last night after the close game at the Rose Bowl -- Oregon, 28 - Wisconsin, 27 -- one of the presenters even mentioned it -- that folks no longer consider the bowl games relevant. He suggested that doesn't mean the games are any less exciting. But there's a difference between "relevancy" and "exciting." Was is a mistake for college football to go the route of the NFL with a championship playoff format? I don't know, but growing up in Williston, ND, I always looked forward to the final AP rankings after the bowl games were played. The rankings always provided several days of discussion. Now we go through the motion of playing the bowl games -- perhaps to fill the void until the championship games some two weeks into the new year.

Transition: recent chatter about the irrelevancy of the aircraft carrier in the 21st century. Maybe, maybe not. Depends. Probably not particularly cost effective. Maybe the answer is just fewer carrier groups. I don't know. But there may be a shift. I completely missed this story back on December 3, 2019, but came across it in the process of looking for something else. This was completely off my radar scope and the fact I didn't see widespread coverage, it makes me think a lot of folks missed it. The data points are staggering:

• early in December, 2019, the US Navy awarded its most expensive shipbuilding contract ever 
• $22.2 billion
• "massive contract"
• nine nuclear-powered Virginia class attack submarines
• said to be in response to China's nuclear submarine buildup
• Virginia class submarines
• 18 already in the fleet
• another 10 in various stages of construction
• the 9 new subs: substantial upgrades
• option for a 10th submarine; would bring final contract to $24 billion
• bigger, longer, heavier
• 40 Tomahawk cruise missiles vs current 12 on the current ships
• wow, that needs repeating -- from 12 to 40 Tomahawk cruise missiles on each submarine
• can generate their own water, oxygen; can stay submerged for months at a time
• prime contractor: General Dynamics Electric Boat, Groton, CT
• subcontractor: Huntington Ingalls Industries
• would ensure a stable workload for the 4,000 workers at an Electric Boat shipyard in Rhode Island for years to come
• scheduled for delivery between 2025 and 2029