Harold Hamm: prognostication. Think about that when looking at note below.
- predicts 19% jump in US oil prices within six months
- regardless of what happens in the Mideast
- only says "tightening supplies"
- he didn't mention "right kind of oil"
- he didn't mention recent stories about global demand for US light, sweet oil
- WPX, Oklahoma-based, focuses on the Bakken and the Permian
- Felix Energy, Denver-based
- WPX specifically interested in Felix's acreage in Texas' Loving, Winkler, and Ward counties in Texas near the New Mexico border; part of the core region of the Permian, Delaware Basin
- price: $900 million in cash; $1.6 billion in WPX stock;
- Other deals possible:
- buyers:
- EOG, COP, Pioneer Natural Resources, Noble Energy, Devon Enery, FANG
- maybe XOM, Chevron, Shell
- lesser extent: BP, Total
- could be acquired:
- WPX
- Callon Petroleum, which just merged with Carrizo
- Parsley Energy (part of the 2019 deal scene -- all stock merger between Parsley and Jagged Peak Energy Inc)
- Cimarex Energy
- Centennial Resource Development
- Laredo Petroleum
- Lots of talk:
- XOM - EOG ($51 billion, $88.80)
- EOG - Laredo
- Barron's suggests seven potential 2020 targets (market cap, recent share price):
- Laredo Petroleum
- Centennial Resource Development
- Matador Resources
- QEP Resources ($1.1 billion, $4.70)
- SM Energy ($1.4 billion, $12.10, recent jump in price)
- WPX Energy ($5.9 billion , $14.14)
- Halcon Resources (privately held)
- Four I didn't see mentioned:
- Whiting ($730 million, $8.00)
- Oasis ($1.2 billion, $3.60)
- Enerplus ($1.6 billion, $7.25)
- Encana($6.4 billion, $4.90)
Again, the disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
I think a lot of the EOG valuation comes from the management team and work practices. Those might not survive a merger with big corporate oil. For that reason, I think it makes more sense to buy PXD than EOG. In addition, PXD has a CEO who seems pretty ready to give up the reins. Did once already.
ReplyDeleteMuch appreciated; thank you. EOG is definitely one of a kind.
DeleteHarold Hamm has a very a very bad record of predicting higher oil prices than what actually happen. Not sure if he is talking his book, wishcasting, or just not that sharp. But it is funny to go back to some of his old boners. (And he never gave good post mortems to say "I wuz wrong".)
ReplyDeleteWow, you are so correct. I didn't post it earlier, but if I were a betting man (and I'm not), I would bet that WTI doesn't get much above $65 for any length of time. If I'm wrong, my portfolio will look great (assuming oil goes to $75); if not, I'll simply have to wait another ten years. LOL. But I honestly don't think WTI will go above $65 for any length of time.
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