Brooklyn Oil Field -- Update -- January 12, 2020

Long-time readers know that one of my favorite fields is the Brooklyn oil field north of Williston.

That field is tracked here.

Some comments:

• production data for all wells completed in 2012 and before has been updated as of 11/19;
• many of the wells completed in 2014 and 2013 have also been updated
• there are at least a dozen wells in the Brooklyn oil field that have come off line since 9/19 and remain off line
• they could be coming off line because they are no longer economical; have served their purpose; and will soon be shut in, plugged, and abandoned; but I don't think so;
• more likely, the wells coming off line suggest there is new fracking activity in the Brooklyn oil field and these wells coming off line will soon be back on line
• there's lots of work left to be done in the Bakken
• "all" wells drilled before 2014 in the Brooklyn oil field will need to be re-fracked;
• by today's standards, the wells drilled in the Brooklyn in 2014 and before were mediocre wells at best
• the wells in the Brooklyn oil field now are huge; example below
• another Brooklyn well -- the first in a long time -- will be coming off the confidential list this next week

Many wells drilled in 2012 and before have still not produced more than 200,000 bbls of crude oil.

Compare that with this Brooklyn well still on the confidential list:

• 35563, conf, CLR, Gjorven 12-21HSL, Brooklyn, 107,981 bbls in less than four full months of production; 1.896 million cf natural gas (31,589 boe) or a total of 139,570 boe in less than four full months of production. Up until recently, the Brooklyn would have been considered Tier 2 at best, possibly Tier, but with these kinds of wells, certainly Tier 1:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2019	44056	88871
10-2019	44350	76587
9-2019	18502	24105
8-2019	963	0
7-2019	110	0

Wells in the Brooklyn oil field:

• as of January 12, 2020, there are 142 wells permitted in the Brooklyn oil field
• 2xxx: 76
• 3xxx: 60
• A: 104
• IA: 6
• LOC: 6 
• CONF: 7
• DUCs: 14
• PA: 1
• PNC: 2
• Dry: 2

Note:

• the following was done quickly
• it has not been double-checked or proofread
• there are a lot of assumptions
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken
• I often make typographical and content errors that need to be corrected
• I often make simply math errors that need to be corrected
• I assume there will still be a demand for oil two years from now

Brooklyn oil field:

• 36 sections
• 6 x 6
• six miles by six miles = 36 square miles
• 36 section x 640 acres / section = 23,040 acres
• 23,040 acres / 142 permitted wells = 162 acres / well
• most sections with about 9 horizontals
• a few sections with as few as 3 horizontals
• most are still MBH wells
• there may be around 30 first bench Three Forks wells in all of Brooklyn oil field
• there will be at least four ways of tracking well density in Brooklyn oil field
• total acres / total permitted wells
• total acres / total active and producing wells
• total acres / wells per formation (middle Bakken, first bench Three Forks, etc)
• drilling units / wells per formation
• 36 section s = 18 sections (using the standard 1280-acre size drilling unit)
• 8 middle Bakken wells / 1280-acre unit
• 8 x 18 = 144 middle Bakken wells in the Brooklyn oil field
• I see approximately 16 sections with minimal drilling in the Brooklyn oil field = 8 sections (using standard 1280-acre size drilling unit)
• 8/18 = 44%
• projections, middle Bakken wells:
• high end: 144 x 1.50 = 216 potential middle Bakken locations at current spacing
• low end: 144 x 1.25 = 180 potential middle Bakken locations at current spacing
• 216 - 144 = 72 more middle Bakken wells in Brooklyn oil field at current spacing (high end)
• 180 - 144 = 36 more middle Bakken wells in Brooklyn oil field at current spacing (low end) 
• the number of Three Forks, first bench wells, drilled so far in the Brooklyn field is relatively trivial
• projections, Three Forks, first bench wells:
• the number of Three Forks, first bench wells will eventually equal the number of middle Bakken wells (high end)
• the number of Three Forks, first bench wells will eventually equal half the number of middle Bakken wells (low end)
• potential Three Forks, first bench locations
• 216: high end
• 108: low end
• total wells yet to be drilled in the Brooklyn oil field at current spacing:
• 288 ( high end)
• 144 (low end)
• number of wells that need to be re-fracked (or re-drilled, same location): 125
• number of wells likely to be drilled/completed per year in the Brooklyn oil field: 12 
• projections:
• 288 + 125 / 12 = 34 years of drilling / re-fracking
• 144 + 125 / 12 = 22 years of drilling / re-fracking
• bottom line: lots of work yet to be done in the Bakken