ADP Jobs Report -- December, 2019, Data

Another huge story, but it's almost as if no one is paying attention.

First, look at the Barron's headline: the ADP jobs report shows US payrolls rose by another incredible 202,000 (December, 2019) ... but look at this: Barron's says the ADP often "undershoots the US Labor Department reading. Wow. We will get the government reading on Friday.

From the linked article:

• 202,000 jobs added in the private sector in December, 2019
• most jobs added in eight months
• sentiment: labor market remains solid
• no evidence of wage inflation
• "just where are these jobs coming from" -- the mainstream media says we've exhausted the labor pool -- LOL -- mainstream media not paying attention --
• that 202,000? Well ahead of the 160,000 forecast by US economists
• best reading since April, 2019
• then, get this: the November, 2019, jobs figure was revised upward -- significantly -- up from 67,000 to 124,000

Reaction?

• Bernie: resist!
• Buttigieg: change course!
• Biden: WTF just happened?
• Pocahontas: well, here's the thing. 

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Idle Rambling

Whether it's good, bad, or indifferent --- whenever there's a huge military conflict, potentially involving the US, one is reminded again, how amazingly robust our military is.

From the few line items reported by the press prior to last night, following the killing of that Iraqi general:

• six B-52's fly into and stage out of Diego Garcia. Six B-52s alone would be more than enough to make Iran think twice
• that elephant walk at that Utah air base: 52 F-35s participate in minimum interval takeoff; 52 F-35s with nothing else would be more than enough to make Iran think twice
• this is one air base; the US has many more such bases; this is just a single air base
• three squadrons, maybe four squadrons, I assume
• one US Navy a/c carrier has three fighter squadrons
• US Navy: how many submarines with 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles on each are within striking distance of Iran does one suppose there are? One? Two? Three?

Even after all my years in the Air Force, I was still amazed to see that 52-a/c elephant walk over at Hill AFB, UT -- that was really, really impressive.

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Idle Rambling

Re: that Ukrainian 737 that crashed and burned moments after take-off from Tehran International Airport.... does this pass the smell test? I find it incredible the mainstream media took this "explanation" at face value, reporting it as if it were true -- that it was an engine fire that caused this.

Some comments, observations, facts:

• when was the last time a 737 crashed and burned moments after take-off (we're not talking about the 737 MAX) due to a single engine fire? I think ... never ...
• the 737-800 is one of the safest aircraft ever flown; many, many redundant systems;
• the plane had just completed its most recent inspection, January 6, 2019; it's a 2016 model;
• Tehran/Iran spokespeople are perhaps the least credible spokespeople on the planet; journalists actually take their word on this? All networks cite cause of crash due to engine fire / technical problems and this is their source: "Report."
• immediately after the crash, the Iranian spokespeople said they had the cause of the crash; that's incredibly fast -- it almost sounds as if the press release was written before the incident;
• why in the world did Tehran let a passenger plane take off under these circumstances; did the airport NOT get the memo that ballistic missiles were about to be launched?
• the 737-800 is perfectly capable of flying/climbing on one engine; the loss of a single engine would not be enough to cause a crash;
• there was no communication from the cockpit that there was any problem; whatever caused this problem, is was "instantaneous"
• there was no indication the plane had any problems: the flight path was straight and climbing; the plane simply dropped off the radar scope; simply dropped out of the sky
• no communication from the cockpit, and one can be sure the NSA linguists were listening to the radio communication between the airline and the tower in real time; the US knows what happened (and so does Boeing);
• Ukraine has never had an a/c crash in 37 years
• the debris field is huge, widespread -- it is not a debris field one sees in a kind of crash from a technical problem; a plane losing an engine would simply crash land; end up in pretty much one piece, and there would likely be survivors; but again, a 737-800 doesn't "crash" due to a loss of one engine
• the pilot had 1,600 hours of experience, if I recall correctly
• incredible coincidence: happens on the very night missiles are flying
• Tehran won't give up "black box" which would explain much; later, says the black box was damaged; LOL -- based on reports of impact and description of debris field, the black box was utterly destroyed;
• most interesting, the Iranians hinted at an a/c shoot-down in a tweet just hours before this incident actually happened
• journalists reporting the story say "we shouldn't speculate" and yet they speculate on everything else; but journalists don't seem to want to call into question Iranian spokespeople; what am I missing?
• this is right up there with Epstein hung himself

See comment below, a reader expanding on the observations above:

I flew the Boeing 737 for 22 years and the national guard version for 15 of those years, four years as an instructor and check airman.

The 737 national guard is one of the safest airliners out there especially when in the hands of competent pilots which this appears to be the case.

The large debris field and the absence of impact furrows in the ground or a substantial impact crater is further evidence of an inflight breakup. Several large sections of fuselage skins found in different locations show no crumpling that is normally seen in high energy impacts. The vertical stabilizer found separate from the wreckage is mostly intact with indications of shrapnel damage to the upper side that appears not to have come in contact with the ground. The fuselage skins and vertical stabilizer could easily be surmised to have separated from the aircraft inflight.

Lastly the unsubstantiated photo of the fins of an Iranian antiaircraft missile found in the area could be the biggest clue. 

Bottom line: if it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and swims like a duck, it's probably a duck.

Later, 1:06 p.m. CT, January 9, 2020: when the Pentagon makes an official announcement on almost anything, you can pretty much take it to the bank. The a/c "probably" / "accidentally" shot down by Iranian ground-to-air missile. Story everywhere. Google it. Fox News has it as top story; Drudge does not.

Later, 1:48 p.m. CT, January 9, 2020: Canada's PM Trudeau now says there is intelligence data that the a/c was brought down by a missile.

Later, 2:02 p.m. CT, January 9, 2020, from CBS News:  U.S. intelligence picked up signals of the radar being turned on and satellite detected infrared blips of two missile launches, probably SA-15s, followed shortly by another infrared blip of an explosion.

That last one: that's pretty chilling.