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Sunday, October 6, 2019

CLR Will Report Three Nice Indian Hill Honolulu Wells -- October 6, 2019

The well:
  • 35906, conf, CLR, Honolulu 4-15H, Indian Hill, just across the river from Williston; our dad used to take us out to Indian Hill so often to run around when we were small kids; great memories; t--; cum --;  
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20193275220517
7-201912470775

The well:
  • 35905, conf, CLR, Honolulu 5-15H, Indian Hill, t--; cum --; 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20193326425094
7-2019141508504

The well:
  • 35904, conf, CLR, Honolulu 6-15H, Indian Hill, t--; cum --;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20194292524796
7-2019121817289

MRO Has Four Huge Wells In Chimney Butte; One In Killdeer --October 8, 2019

The well:
  • 36265, SI/NC, MRO, Dorothy 14-12TFH, fracked 7/15/19 - 7/29/19, moderate frack with 7.3 million gallons of water, 90% water by mass; 9.52% sand, Chimney Butte, t--; cum --;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20192960950604926518464187060069

The well:
  • 362352, SI/NC, MRO, Delmont 34-23H, Chimney Butte, t--; cum --;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20192838529384557503139948444332288
BAKKEN7-2019319008513980386

The well:
  • 36266, SI/NC, MRO, Dasha USA 44011H, Chimney Butte, t--; cum --;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20192235460351935055139792037386

The well:
  • 36267, 4,301, MRO, Blanche 14-36H, Killdeer, t7/19; cum 80K in less than 1.5 months:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20192945554453845521940102537048
BAKKEN7-20191434711343844818419330017020

The well:
  • 36167, 2,662, MRO, Meredith 14-24H, Chimney Butte, t8/19; cum 47K in 23 days; neighboring well, #27074, an Adamson well, remains off line, 8/19;
Production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20192347229468504920943623040433
BAKKEN7-2019200367000


Frack Data For A DUC -- WPX Ruby -- Antelope-Sanish -- October6, 2019

This is pretty cool.

The other day we were talking about FracFocus, some contending that frack data was sometimes delayed getting posted over at FracFocus. It's been my contention when one can't find frack data at NDIC, one can find it at FracFocus if the frack has been completed.

Exhibit A.
  • 36089, SI/NC, WPX, Ruby 31-30HEL, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum 52K in less than three months:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH8-20192630393304791795836836301062674
SANISH7-2019172061721014716424989022185
SANISH6-20192164816560287860186

NDIC: frack data not there yet; still officially "SI/NC."

But FracFocus has the data.

This well was fracked 6/6/19 - 6/14/19:
  • 4.7 million gallons of water (relatively small to moderate)
  • water: 83.8% by mass
  • sand: 15.3% by mass

Wow, Wow, Wow --- I Just Checked -- Jason Garrett On The Hot Seat -- October 6, 2019

Cowboys lose two in a row.

34 - 24.


Ten points.

Apparently at one time, the Cowboys trailed 34 - 3.

Just Dropped In, The First Edition
 
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Udon Noodles and Edamame
 

Udon noodles though having a subtler flavor than their counterpart, ramen noodles, easily absorb the flavor of the broth it is made in. Ramen noodles come either curly or straight whereas, udon noodles are usually straight. Udon noodles are more filling, compared to ramen, due to their thickness.

And, yes, Sophia prepares udon noodles to ramen. 

Just For The Fun Of It -- How Far The Truax Oil Field Has Come In Eight Years -- October 6, 2019

A reader sent me these two images of the Truax oil field to show how much work has been down in eight years.

January 15, 2011:


September 17, 2019:


Illinois -- Drifting Away -- October 6, 2019

The article is over at ZeroHedge.

Illinois is second to Alaska in net outbound. Many move out, but few move in.


But look at that graph above. What do you notice? I missed it. Don caught it. Answer at bottom of post.

See also the IRS map on folks moving across the US; but only as recent as 2011, but it is nice because it goes back several years.

United Van Lines, 2018. For 2018, of all the United Van Line moves in/out of Illinois, 66% of folks were moving out of state; 34% were moving to the state.

Chicago Tribune has similar story, May 23, 2019. Again, like those opting to move out of NYC, I would assume, the largest segment of movers are those in the upper half socioeconomically, the ones that would "add" something to the state, not take something away from the state.

More recently, September 25, 2019, the Chicago Tribune takes a closer look at the "Illinois exit."

This is probably one of the most interesting data points:
The Illinois Policy Institute reports [Despite taxing both sales and income, Illinois has higher property taxes than every single state that does not charge an income tax](Despite taxing both sales and income, Illinois has higher property taxes than every single state that does not charge an income tax.).
State income tax rates here. It appears that the Illinois state income tax, one of the highest in the country, is 4.95% across the board.

Answer to question, hint before I post the answer: note which state Illinois residents are not moving to.

Answer later.

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Corky At The Piano

Just Too Much Work To Be Done In The Bakken -- October 6, 2019

Going through well after well after well -- the old, old, first generation wells drilled in the early days of the Bakken boom (permits of the 16XXX and 17XXX series) -- and then the newest wells being drilled now, and then looking at recent wells affected by the "halo effect," it brings home how much work the oil companies in North Dakota have yet to do:
  • prioritize the older wells for re-fracks; re-work;
  • find wells best suited for the "halo effect";
  • drill new development wells; put wells in known Tier 1 areas; in-fill wells
  • drill new wells on the periphery of the Tier 1 areas; expand the Tier 1 areas; gradually move into Tier 2
  • start advancing the first bench of the Three Forks; only one operator has been doing the bulk of this, CLR
  • manage flaring issues
  • looking for new acquisitions
  • looking to sell non-core assets
I was reminded of that by looking at another non-descript, but incredibly typical well in the Bakken.

Back in 2017, I wrote:
  • 17079 -- CLR, a nice well; petering out
So, checking toay, to see how this well was going on, let's look at the well from about that time -- 2017 and going forward:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2019311948209685323141231664
BAKKEN7-20193121602418107725321164949
BAKKEN6-20193022152032127125931377811
BAKKEN5-2019261792197510531953682940
BAKKEN4-20193023512274164223945181471
BAKKEN3-2019141925159413401237542519
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-2019002310000
BAKKEN12-20180000000
BAKKEN11-201814135014076121554604783
BAKKEN10-201831321132691073325114511381
BAKKEN9-201830280327951320282212171200
BAKKEN8-201829269523043178298813681236
BAKKEN7-201842132212518024125
BAKKEN6-2018002250000
BAKKEN5-20181511671614789809800
BAKKEN4-2018302457235912318611747114
BAKKEN3-2018312441208810517991484315
BAKKEN2-20182822442362951512150111
BAKKEN1-20183125932585107177117710
BAKKEN12-20173124932549155169416940
BAKKEN11-20173034763467982294227618
BAKKEN10-2017254332203081721720
BAKKEN9-2017301590014140
BAKKEN8-2017311792122243376
BAKKEN7-20173121123543796118
BAKKEN6-20173014323630843430
BAKKEN5-2017303502181451881799

In 2017 this well appeared to be on its last legs, and then "something happened." CLR brings this well back to a respectable 2,500 bbls/month. Nothing great, but the well is alive and kicking.

The well:
  • 17079, 559, CLR,  Carson Peak 44-2H, Oakdale, t6/08; cum 324K 8/19;
The Carson Peak wells are tracked here. Note that I've said that this particular well, #17079, was a re-frack candidate. 

Wow -- A Rainy, Wet September For The Bakken -- October 6, 2019

Before we get to the map below, the link to "this week in pictures, the Powerline edition.

Now the map. 

This map has been posted for educational reasons.

Link here.

It seems when I was growing up in Williston, I was taught that western North Dakota averaged 9 - 11 inches of rain (precipitation?) every year -- that would have come from "North Dakota history" taught by Mr Hovland (?) -- I'm blocking on the name but I do believe he was very, very tall, very dark hair, and last name started with an "H."

In the graphic below -- sent to me by a reader -- note that the "core" of the Bakken received in  excess of ten inches of rain in the harvest month of September.


We will see production numbers affected when the September, 2019, data is released in November, 2019.  The oil companies will do fine; the farmers will have a tough, tough time this autum in this area.

WPX Has A 50K+ Well In The Mandaree Oil Field -- October 6, 2019

Remember when we told you this ten years ago: if you have one well, you will eventually have two wells; very likely four wells; probably eight wells, and possibly many, many more than that. Hold that thought.

Note: "each well stands alone."

Note: operators aren't drilling wells unless they expect a(n) EUR of at least a million bbls.

Note: lots of discussion in the Permian about infill density. We're not having those discussions in the Bakken.

Note: either through luck or good planning, the spacing units are really, really well established in the Bakken. I'm not getting that feeling in the Permian based on a) lengths of Permian laterals; and, b) conference calls; c) monthly Director's Cuts from the NDIC.

Disclaimer: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken.

Most exciting wells to track for the next twelve months:
  • 18518, 2,736, RimRock, Two Shields Butte 3-24-12-4H, Mandaree, t4/14; cum 461K 8/19;
  • 20258, 2,399, RimRock, Skunk Creek 3-24-25-13H, Mandaree, t4/14; cum 332K 8/19;
  • 20257, 2,475, RimRock, Two Shields Butte 3-24-12-3H3, 23 stages; 3.5 million lbs; Three Forks even though permit said "Bakken"; name change request from middle Bakken to Three Forks, December, 2013; Mandaree, t4/14; cum 393K 8/19;
  • 20259, 1,579, RimRock, Skunk Creek 3-24-25-14H3, Mandaree, t4/14; cum 202K 8/19;
The 50K+ well that WPX will be reporting this next week:
  • 35714, conf, WPX, Nancy Dancing Bull 1-36HQL, Mandaree; note that WPX only sold 69% of the oil it produced since it started producing oil; that speaks volumes -- 

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20195512343622
7-201973520

The Nancy Dancing Bull wells:
  • 35713, conf, WPX, Nancy Dancing Bull 1-36HQL, producing, 24K in first full month;
  • 35714, above.
  • 35715, conf, WPX, Nancy Dancing Bull 1-36HW, no production data yet
Graphics pending:




**********

There are currently 20 wells in this narrow band, 0.69 miles from west to east. In addition there are another 6 wells to the east, in the same section. In total, so far, 26 wells in less than one mile from east to west.


Twenty-six wells.

Eventually there could be as many as: 48 wells. No typo. 48 wells. 

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- October 6, 2019

34970, conf, CLR, Rader 8-24H, Avoca:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20191546518035
7-20192707528897
4-201914830

34969, conf, CLR, Rader 9-2H1, Avoca:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20191389516597
7-20191875319044
4-20195500

34946, conf, Whiting, Moline 44-10-1TFH, Tyrone:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20192039514538
7-20192183014760
6-2019187506862
5-20192487316373
4-201954052094
 
34924, conf, CLR, Collison 11-23H, Avoca:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20191329815878
7-20193108233839
6-20191455412805
5-20198790
4-201990

30647, conf, CLR, Sorenson 7-16H2, Alkali Creek:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-201910460

35714, conf, WPX, Nancy Dancing Bull 1-36HQL, Mandaree:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20195512343622
7-201973520

30648, conf, CLR, Sorenson 5-16H, Alkali Creek:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-2019018
4-20196420

35713, conf, WPX, Nancy Dancing Bull 1-36HQL, Mandaree:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20192445019060
7-201936010

35109, conf, CLR, Morris 7-26H2, Oakdale:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20192126520936
7-20191976218237
6-201971455042
5-20192564924743
4-20192208619919

34890, conf, Bruin E&P, Fort Berthold 148-94-35D-26-14H, McGregory Buttes:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-2019688212439
7-2019960620030
6-20191081516804
5-20191352721075
4-201946946053

34435, conf, Enerplus, Scrooge 148-93-20B_29H-TF, McGregory Buttes:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20192142913529
7-201966224204
6-2019140968688
5-20192261915742
4-2019129507950

35170, conf, Zavanna, George 19-25 2HXW, Avoca:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20191814125687
7-20192113329720
6-20192606028832
5-20193224841826
4-20191010599

34436, conf, Enerplus, Dewey 148-93-20B-29H-TF, McGregory Buttes:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-201974904729
7-2019145709250
6-2019121477486
5-20192330916222
4-201961783793

30649, conf, CLR, Sorenson 4-16H1, Alkali Creek:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20191379419697
7-201914490
6-2019265939807
5-20193653039884
4-201918880

34968, conf, CLR, Rader 10-24H, Avoca:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20193014933814
7-20193404238059

34908, conf, Nine Point Energy, Eckert Foundation 152-102-22-15-8H, Elk:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20192401928583
7-20192203020690
6-20192262514394
5-20191956814848
4-20191967213048

35348, conf, CLR, Sorenson 11-16H,  Alkali Creek:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-201957619759
7-2019652330
6-20192138222943
5-20193377749039
4-2019679810348

35347, conf, CLR, Sorenson 10-16H1, Alkali Creek:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20192271935272
7-2019220428984
6-20192442322794
5-20193978054558
4-20191247714551

34759, conf, Whiting, Berger 24-20-1H, Tyrone:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-2019212375139
7-2019264237852
6-2019274255413
5-20192566416360
4-20192544818266

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- OCtober 6, 2019

Monday, October 14, 2019: 41 for the month; 41 for the quarter:
36016, conf, WPX, Bison 27-34HEL, 
35715, conf, WPX, Nancy Dancing Bull 1-36HW, 
34970, conf, CLR, Rader 8-24H, 
34969, conf, CLR, Rader 9-2H1

Sunday, October 13, 2019: 37 for the month; 37 for the quarter:
35950, conf, XTO, Bronson 31X-14D, 
34946, conf, Whiting, Moline 44-10-1TFH
34924, conf, CLR, Collison 11-23H,
30647, conf, CLR, Sorenson 7-16H2

Saturday, October 12, 2019: 33 for the month; 33 for the quarter:
35714, conf, WPX, Nancy Dancing Bull 1-36HQL,
30648, conf, CLR, Sorenson 5-16H, 

Friday, October 11, 2019: 31 for the month; 31 for the quarter:
35713, conf,WPX, Nancy Dancing Bull 1-36HQL, 

Thursday, October 10, 2019: 30 for the month; 30 for the quarter:
35109, conf, CLR, Morris 7-26H2
34890, conf, Bruin E&P, Fort Berthold 148-94-35D-26-14H, 
34435, conf, Enerplus, Scrooge 148-93-20B_29H-TF

Wednesday, October 9, 2019: 27 for the month; 27 for the quarter:
35170, conf, Zavanna, George 19-25 2HXW,
34436, conf, Enerplus, Dewey 148-93-20B-29H-TF,

Tuesday, October 8, 2019: 25 for the month; 25 for the quarter:
30649, conf, CLR, Sorenson 4-16H1,

Monday, October 7, 2019: 24 for the month; 24 for the quarter:
35653, conf, WPX, Bird Bear 35-26HW, 
35652, conf, WPX, Bird Bear 35-26HA,

Sunday, October 6, 2019: 22 for the month; 22 for the quarter:
35651, conf, WPX, Bird Bear 35-26HS, 
35650, conf, WPX, Bird Bear 36-25HB,
34968, conf, CLR, Rader 10-24H, 
34908, conf, Nine Point Energy, Eckert Foundation 152-102-22-15-8H,

Saturday, October 5, 2019: 18 for the month; 18 for the quarter:
35348, conf, CLR, Sorenson 11-16H, 
35347, conf, CLR, Sorenson 10-16H1
34759, conf, Whiting, Berger 24-20-1H, 

Magic -- October 6, 2019

Yesterday I wrote a long note with this subject line:
The Bakken Magic -- The "Halo Effect" -- And A Nod To Steve Jobs Who Died Eight Years Ago Today -- October 5, 2019.
This morning, with nothing better to do, I was surfing the net when I stumbled upon the following headline over at oilprice:


Even oilprice is referring to the "Bakken revolution" as "shale magic." LOL.