Idle Rambling On A Late Thursday Night -- A CLR Cedar Coulee Carus Well -- October 3, 2019

As mentioned earlier, I'm going through every 16XXX well -- see this note for background.

Every time I want to quit for the night I find another incredible example of "something."

I lost track of this well. I followed it for awhile. See this post. But it seems I completely lost track of it.

So, how is this well doing?

The well:

• 16648, 508, CLR, Carus 13-28H, Cedar Coulee, SESW 28-147-96; Bakken pool, t8/07; cum 302K 2/19; see this post where this well will be followed; the file report is still confidential (9:00 a.m. CT, April 18, 2019) 

So, that was April 14, 2019.

This was the production profile going into 4/19:

BAKKEN	4-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2018	7	121	430	20	202	71	50
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	637	579	107	1044	6	619
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	620	755	83	1040	25	610
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	646	527	93	1061	19	623

Pretty grim, huh?

It sort of got worse, if that's possible:

BAKKEN	6-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2019	4	208	194	6350	2469	0	2428

Now, the most recent two months:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	40586	40539	54740	48579	47682	478
BAKKEN	7-2019	30	42528	42338	60150	53111	45791	6925

And that's why I'm inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken. It's like a box of chocolates. I never know what I'm going to find next.

Also, take another look at that well. Who's drilling that well. Yup. Harold Hamm.

By the way, this was the production profile for this well for the first six months after it was originally drilled/completed:

BAKKEN	1-2008	31	9206	9299	378	7633	7633	0
BAKKEN	12-2007	31	8448	8431	305	7059	7059	0
BAKKEN	11-2007	30	8773	8617	249	8107	8107	0
BAKKEN	10-2007	31	11772	11829	564	10697	10697	0
BAKKEN	9-2007	30	14220	14180	858	623	623	0
BAKKEN	8-2007	31	10833	10729	2252	0	0	0

Compare that 14,220 bbls in September, 2007, to the 42,528 bbls in July, 2019, twelve years later.

And there literally thousands of these wells in the Bakken.

Cutting The Cord; Absolutely Nothing About The Bakken -- October 3, 2019

I mentioned the other day that I "cut the cord." That's an evolving story. The problem is that my wife still enjoys a few cable networks.

But I haven't watched television in a couple of weeks now. I quit watching NFL games and I quit watching NASCAR, for reasons I discussed earlier.

I was just going to sign off for the night and watch a Perry Mason episode on Amazon Prime.com and this pops up:

I had no idea. So, here we go. An NFL game for free, streaming on Amazon Prime.com. Absolutely amazing. The annual NFL Game Pass is $99.99. I'm getting NFL with my Amazon Prime.com subscription. No additional cost. And my television remains off.

Too bad I'm not watching the NFL any more. LOL.

Okay. On to Perry Mason.

(Okay, I cheated. I checked in on the NFL game on Amazon Prime.com just to see if is was the "real thing." OMG. It is. It is the Fox Network. And the clarity -- amazing. I cannot believe it. I never knew.) And I can watch it no matter where I am. I don't need to be home. Amazing. I can watch it at Starbucks. Anywhere there is wi-fi. Which is pretty much everywhere.

From Variety. 

This is exactly how I feel:

And now this. I mentioned I added a third telephone line through Sprint the other day. I didn't pay attention to all the "stuff" I got with that additional third line but my daughter read all the paperwork and says I got "free Hulu." I did not know that. Apparently "Hulu with commercials." Amazing. I cut the cord and I end up having more access to "stuff" than I ever had before.

Now, for real entertainment (sorry; I've posted this one many times):

Cry To Me, Rocco and Claudia  "Rocco" -- reminds me. I once met "Rocco", a Hollywood personality, while a medical student at USC, on a pediatric unit at Children's Hospital Los Angeles. Some great photos of the hospital at this link. Wow, what an incredible life. Alex Rocco? There are times I want to live forever. Rarely, I'm ready to call it a life. Check out. And then I get to pick up Sophia. LOL.

Idle Rambling On The Bakken, My Second Favorite Subject -- October 3, 2019

I'm going through every well that was permitted / drilled / completed back in the 2008 time period, by permit, the 16XXX series. I do this periodically, from time to time, take a specific series of permits and go through them. For example, I am doing the 16XXX series this week; maybe next week I will do the 17XXX series. And so on.

I literally go through every well -- it will take several days. But it is really amazing. Sure, there are a lot of wells that have not done particularly well, but they are still in production. But in general, I find it amazing how many wells show a jump in production, again for any number of reasons.

As I go through the list -- remember, these are the 16XXX wells -- one thousand of them -- 99% of them Bakken --and "we" have just begun the 37XXX series wells (October, 2019) -- that's (37000 - 16000 = 21,000 Bakken wells). I was saying: as I go through the list, the 16XXX wells drilled back in 2008 or thereabouts, all I see are scores (or hundreds) of wells that need to be re-fracked. It is absolutely amazing.

The problem for the operators is not whether to drill or not, whether to re-frack or not, the problem is what to prioritize? The operators are simply limited by resources: money, people, time, etc. I'm convinced Harold Hamm thinks about this 24/7.

I don't think anyone has any idea how much work needs to be done in the Bakken, just with the wells that are already drilled. It is simply amazing.

Here's another one.

Jack Pennington,  #16778.

16778, 354, MRO, Jack Pennington 21-28H, Reunion Bay, t8/08; cum 567K 10/19; off line 10/19; remains off line 4/20;

Test date: back on August 14, 2008. An IP of 354 in Reunion Bay. Ridiculous. Piss-poor as they say. Today, one would expect the IP in a Reunion Bay well to be 2,000 to 3,000. Maybe more.

This well's initial production in 2008 was pretty unremarkable, maybe even lousy: see the first six months of production below. If this well cost $10 million to drill / complete at the time, and at $50/bbl, this well produced 25,000 bbls x $50 = $1.25 million in the first six months. Not very good. In fact, lousy. A lot of folks would have called it "uneconomic."

Ten million dollars to drill/complete and only a million dollars to show for it after six months. (These days, these same wells might pay for themselves in the first six months). First six months production for this wells back in late 2008. The best it ever did at that time, a lousy 6,000 bbls/month.

BAKKEN	1-2009	30	2833	3355	395	1242	0	1242
BAKKEN	12-2008	28	2653	2391	465	1163	0	1163
BAKKEN	11-2008	25	4837	5073	910	2118	0	2118
BAKKEN	10-2008	31	4734	4304	840	2073	0	2073
BAKKEN	9-2008	24	4197	4072	993	1838	0	1838
BAKKEN	8-2008	27	6092	5828	2573	2668	0	2668

By 2014, six years later, this well had declined to 1,400 bbls/month -- the dreaded Bakken decline rate:

BAKKEN	5-2014	31	1425	1421	240	1460	891	231
BAKKEN	4-2014	30	1376	1452	221	1349	858	164
BAKKEN	3-2014	31	1291	1254	218	1165	479	363

If a conventional well, it was likely ready to be abandoned, at worse; or, at best, sold as a stripper well. A stripper well: 10 - 15 bbls/day.

But then look what happened in August, 2014:

BAKKEN	4-2015	30	9611	9607	3118	14239	11549	1491
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	10611	10751	3393	17020	15273	429
BAKKEN	2-2015	28	10534	10609	3234	15049	11451	2306
BAKKEN	1-2015	30	12878	12809	4003	13696	7804	4340
BAKKEN	12-2014	31	14837	14860	4629	19487	17085	630
BAKKEN	11-2014	30	17353	17242	5842	21687	18470	1182
BAKKEN	10-2014	31	22082	22073	8613	19059	7862	8653
BAKKEN	9-2014	23	19564	19734	10275	17440	4240	10975
BAKKEN	8-2014	19	12994	12958	4390	11511	3464	6519

Just like that, magic! In those nine months: 130,464 bbls of oil produced. At $50/bbl, $6.5 million in less than a year. And that doesn't include natural gas, etc.

Then, by August, 2016, it was back down to 5,000 bbls/month -- very, very respectable, and no one was complaining, but then look what happened in May, 2017. Another jump. More magic:

BAKKEN	12-2017	31	9396	9366	5373	10480	9245	35
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	8946	8933	5247	10854	8022	1686
BAKKEN	10-2017	31	10946	10900	6901	13462	8808	3288
BAKKEN	9-2017	30	10911	10854	7523	11766	10409	0
BAKKEN	8-2017	31	11520	11549	8562	12537	11109	0
BAKKEN	7-2017	31	11105	11259	9888	12136	10753	0
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	10107	9974	10537	12546	9600	1676
BAKKEN	5-2017	31	10455	10416	14583	13038	8675	3049
BAKKEN	4-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2016	28	4486	4532	1366	6149	5040	467

Another 83,000 bbls in eight months, between May, 2017, and the end of the year (2017).

The well is still producing a very, very respectable 4,000 bbls/month, and my hunch is that we will see another jump in production in the next couple of years.

And I can find example after example after example of these wells. Absolutely amazing. Something I don't think we see in conventional wells and something no one seems to be talking about even when it's staring them in the face here in the Bakken.

Remember: Hubbert's theory applies to individual wells as well as fields and basins. 

Disclaimer: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken. I may see things that don't exist. I will make typographical and factual errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.

********************************

Another One

These are not hard wells to find. They simply keep popping up. 

I could have used MRO's Bill Connolly 21-25H well as an example also, but I think I've discussed it a couple of times already.

But it's another great example.

Completed back in early 2008; a pretty average well for that time period:

BAKKEN	7-2008	23	2724	2681	1477	1265	1265	0
BAKKEN	6-2008	30	3028	2898	699	1344	1344	0
BAKKEN	5-2008	31	3311	3457	725	1521	1521	0
BAKKEN	4-2008	30	3732	3639	844	1858	1858	0
BAKKEN	3-2008	31	4753	4656	1045	1977	1977	0
BAKKEN	2-2008	29	5746	5811	1239	2132	2132	0
BAKKEN	1-2008	26	8262	7922	2143	313	313	0

Then:

BAKKEN	7-2014	31	3262	3362	1173	2149	761	853
BAKKEN	6-2014	30	3671	3909	1441	2530	1333	624
BAKKEN	5-2014	30	3881	3921	1818	3035	1864	586
BAKKEN	4-2014	28	2679	2571	1435	2005	1090	460
BAKKEN	3-2014	26	2192	1855	1675	1382	697	294
BAKKEN	2-2014	2	6	0	0	16	0	3
BAKKEN	1-2014	4	30	0	0	4	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2013	31	32	0	1	203	0	17
BAKKEN	11-2013	30	154	462	49	270	1	89

Then:

BAKKEN	7-2019	31	18771	18878	22079	23061	17102	4143
BAKKEN	6-2019	30	22893	22808	31176	20766	14015	4676
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	24374	24525	46403	19440	10248	6967
BAKKEN	4-2019	26	29475	29535	90245	20752	5344	12964
BAKKEN	3-2019	5	4502	3755	20278	3154	557	2030
BAKKEN	2-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2018	1	23	440	3	19	6	9
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	844	680	243	786	420	12

Production Jumps 33X -- From 600 Bbls/Month To Almost 20,000 Bbls/Month --The Appledoorn Well, Bailey Oil Field -- October 3, 2019

And, yes, somewhere down the road, we'll see a second jump in production. It's just a matter of time in the Bakken. 

The well:

• 16923, 279, MRO, Appledoorn 14-19H, Bailey, t5/08; cum 311K 8/19;

Production period of interest:

BAKKEN	6-2018	30	6128	5908	5660	5766	1726	3488
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	7556	7597	6737	6458	4462	1334
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	7892	7903	7266	7119	5347	749
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	9555	9652	8776	7403	6199	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	9936	9906	9246	8194	6966	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	12969	12930	12703	10390	8374	445
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	16372	16507	17673	11349	6122	3297
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	18896	18655	27920	12247	3430	6626
BAKKEN	10-2017	15	10609	10470	7118	6568	537	4812
BAKKEN	9-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2017	25	449	445	122	381	162	28
BAKKEN	4-2017	30	559	882	79	478	197	45
BAKKEN	3-2017	30	560	290	199	487	175	87

The Incredible Bakken -- The MRO Voigt Well In Bailey Oil Field -- October 3, 2019

See this post for background.

Previously reported back in late 2017. How has this well done since then? Cumulative has more than doubled in less than two years.

• 16964, 315, MRO, Voigt 11-15H, Bailey, t5/08; cum 203K 11/17; now, 441K 8/19 re-fracked 8/17; re-frack with 45 stages; 5.5 million lbs;

Period of interest:

BAKKEN	11-2018	30	10383	10297	9185	9155	6433	1880
BAKKEN	10-2018	26	11202	11272	10833	9909	6331	2712
BAKKEN	9-2018	11	1819	1864	1870	1846	1666	26
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	11081	11033	9680	9831	8939	0
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	12157	12119	10689	10459	8965	532
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	13283	13261	11861	9934	8482	431
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	12953	13039	10748	9026	6753	1266
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	16648	16633	15390	12130	6074	4097
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	20807	20900	21866	12733	5915	4409
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	22590	22465	25176	13676	7280	3814
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	26722	26704	33136	17924	13520	1364
BAKKEN	12-2017	27	14371	14369	18379	8339	2272	4386
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	17493	17345	21327	9561	505	7006
BAKKEN	10-2017	22	28683	28727	554	15237	0	12043
BAKKEN	9-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2017	5	89	64	10	58	0	40
BAKKEN	4-2017	30	661	663	148	541	0	292
BAKKEN	3-2017	31	691	677	149	607	135	214

Flashback: Hurricane Season Predictions For 2019

Prediction: same prediction for the 2020 hurricane season. The 2020 hurricane season will be either above-normal; near-normal; or, below normal.

A lot of it has to do with fudging data, or as someone might suggest, whatever the definition of "is" is.

Tesla -- Earnings -- HIstorical -- October 3, 2019

In anticipation of Tesla earnings to reported before the end of the month, let's take a look at history.

Link here.

But with billions of dollars in debt coming due next year, it's not so much about quarterly gains and losses, it now becomes a matter of a) free cash flow; and, b) attitude of creditors going forward.

In the last two quarters, losses have exceeded estimates. Will it be a hat-trick this October, 2019? Or in bowling, a turkey.

Zavanna With Three More Permits Near Williston -- October 3, 2019

Active rigs:

$52.46	10/3/2019	10/03/2018	10/03/2017	10/03/2016	10/03/2015
Active Rigs	58	66	57	33	68

Three new permits, #37034 - #37036, inclusive:

• Operator: Zavanna
• Fields: Stony Creek, Cow Creek
• Comments:
• Zavanna has permits for a 3-well Leopard pad in Stony Creek/Cow Creek, section 20-155-100

Seven permits renewed:

• Oasis (3): three Fraser Federal permits in Williams County
• Resource Energy Can-AM (3): two Ranger permits; one Trooper permit, all three in Divide County
• EOG: one West Clark permit in McKenzie County 

Idle Chatter Regarding the "Halo Phenomenon" In The Bakken; "The Bakken Magic" -- October 3, 2019

Updates

October 5, 2019: as of today, I'm going to start referring to this phenomenon as "the Bakken magic." And unless someone shows me that it is happening in the Eagle Ford or the Permian, I will consider it unique to the Bakken.

Original Post 

This post was quickly done: not ready for prime time.

At an earlier post, a reader wrote:

One thing to watch for (not saying it's a problem, just something to check): FracFocus is known for slow reporting of recent completions. See the discussion by EIA in the DPR. So, I worry that some of your "no refrac" comments may be about wells that did have a refrac that will show eventually. Maybe looking at several of your posts from over a year ago, where you said there was no refrac, will now show that there was a refrac.

Not saying this is a major issue. But it may affect some of the wells you look at.

I replied:

You are absolutely correct. I do believe that FracFocus did not "capture" wells that were fracked before 2012 or thereabouts, and I've mentioned that on the blog. FracFocus went "live" sometime around 2012.  It's possible FracFocus will go back and "capture" these early wells. I don't know.

However, now that FracFocus is active, I find that FracFocus posts frack data before the NDIC, or better said, perhaps: when I can't find frack data at the NDIC site, I often find it at FracFocus.

FracFocus also "never" makes a mistake. I put "never" in quotations because there are always exceptions. I have found one -- yes, one -- mistake over at FracFocus (amount of proppant) and I pointed that out on the blog.

Finally, "all" Bakken wells are fracked. When I say a Bakken well has not been re-fracked, I'm talking about a second frack. "All" Bakken wells are fracked at least once. "All" is in quotation remarks because there always exceptions.

Now, a couple more points:

When I find a well that, based on a huge jump in production, "had to have been re-fracked" and FracFocus does not have that data, I check the operator's sundry forms at the NDIC site to see if there is evidence of a re-frack. It now seems to be rare where FracFocus does not have the data of a fracked well when the NDIC has that data.

Second, and this is very, very important. When I first started seeing "jumps in production," what I ended up calling the "halo effect," I tried to see if there might be some explanation. There could be many different explanations for a "jump in production," and that's why I called it a "halo" effect early on and did not get more specific.

I now feel very, very comfortable with the phenomenon, regardless of the reason for a jump in production for a specific well -- as noted, it can be for many reasons.

Because I feel very comfortable with this phenomenon, I generally no longer seek to find the answer. I no longer care. Don't take that out of context. I care, but I only have so much time to check things. Again, there are and there will be exceptions. I generally no longer check the sundry forms, or the NDIC GIS maps, or FracFocus looking to explain "this" phenomenon. I no longer care. The purpose of the blog is to get a general feeling of the Bakken, not to sort out each and every well.

I have gone back to looking at this "halo phenomenon" from the point-of-view of the small mom-and-pop mineral owner. Most small mineral owners do not care why their royalty checks increased.

In addition, from an investor's point of view, I have yet to hear even one analyst (in the earnings conference calls) ask whether this phenomenon exists. [I think there may be an exception to this also but if there was it did not amount to anything.]

So, in general, I'm back to square one, or perhaps better said, I'm switching gears again on this subject. In general, I will only note the jump in production. It will be by exception if I look for a possible reason. I no longer care if I know the exact reason for a jump in production for any given well.