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Wednesday, September 18, 2019

No Rest For The Weary -- Just After I Said I Was Off The Net For Twelve Hours, This Note From A Reader -- The #1 Reason Why I Love To Blog -- September 18, 2019

Updates

September 19, 2019: a reader sent me the initial production numbers for the three wells noted below. I have put that information in draft status and as soon as the wells come off the confidential list, I will post the numbers. The numbers corroborate the earlier assertion that these are good wells. I don't feel comfortable posting the data while the wells are still on the confidential list. I don't want to get anyone in trouble.

Original Post

The graphic:


From a reader, just moments ago:
One of the best wells EOG has had in a while. 3 well Pad. Currently completing the 45,46,47 well to the the north. The 47 well is also a three forks well. Side note about half the sand pumped is from the asgard (spelling?) mine which is 30-35 miles east of Minot. 
The wells:
  • 36413, conf, EOG, Clarks Creek 106-0724H, Clarks Creek, no production data,
  • 36415, conf, EOG, Clarks Creek 18-0719H, Clarks Creek, no production data,
  • 36416, conf, EOG, Clarks Creek 105-0719H, Clarks Creek, no production data, 
So, we will have to wait and see.

Wow, I "love" my readers. Thank you so much for all you have taught me and alerted me to incredible Bakken stories.

Active Rigs In North Dakota Drop Blow 60; CLR With Seven More Long Creek Unit Permits; Kraken With Seven More Hobart Permits -- September 18, 2019

Gasoline demand, link here:



******************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$58.119/18/201909/18/201809/18/201709/18/201609/18/2015
Active Rigs5964563267

Fourteen new permits, #36973 - #36986, inclusive.
  • Operators: Kraken (7), CLR (7)
  • Field: Oliver (Williams); Long Creek (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • Kraken has permits for seven more Hobart wells in Oliver oil field, lot 4, section 6-156-98
    • CLR has permits for seven more LCU Truman Federal wells for the 60-well Long Creek Unit in Long Creek oil field, section 23-153-99
Eighteen permits renewed:
  • QEP (12): twelve MHA permits, all in Mountrail County
  • Oasis (6): six Nikolai Federal permits, all in McKenzie County

Saudi Storage -- September 18, 2019

This may be the most interesting "thing" being talked about over at twitter right now. These are the tea leaves:
  • the attack was worse than first thought
  • it will take longer than first forecast for Saudi to be back to "normal"
  • it appears the end of September is the earliest Saudi would be back to "normal"
  • most suggest back to "normal" will occur NET the end of October
  • most agree that 5 million bopd were knocked out of the "pipeline" by the attack
  • Saudi says they will make up the difference from their oil in storage
  • the most interesting thing over on twitter regarding Saudi storage: no one really has the same number
    • I've seen figures as low as 60 million bbls in storage
    • I've seen figures as high as 400 million bbls in stoage
    • the most "consistent" figure coming from the more "credible" sources has been 160 million bbls in storage
  • prior to the attack, Saudi Arabia was dropping the amount of oil in storage for a number of reasons
  • prior to the attack, in the month of July, 2019, Saudi Arabia's crude oil storage dropped by 8 million bbls
With all that data, it's easy to come up with some back-of-the-envelope numbers. We'll come back to this later but see if you see what I'm seeing.

Later, 8:43 p.m. September 18, 2019: let us continue. I think this is a most incredible graphic. For some reason, Saudi Arabia has been deliberately filling customers' orders with oil from storage for the past several months, not from "new" oil:


This is an amazing graphic. Spend some time thinking about it.

The Incredible Bakken -- September 18, 2019

The incredible Bakken.

The well:
  • 20856, 1,349, Whiting, King 3-8H, Truax, t1/12; cum 354K 7/19;
Hubbert's theory says that once oil production begins to decline it will never increase again.

The full production for this well is found at this post.

Two selected periods.

First period of interest, 5/17 -- 7/18, fairly recent:
BAKKEN7-20183185408546747123987853215362
BAKKEN6-2018301001299878389276911371913882
BAKKEN5-201831124731250310121298941958810213
BAKKEN4-201830153561526012565342842274111453
BAKKEN3-201831174831773813014316911858013018
BAKKEN2-201828209682066015992320621078421194
BAKKEN1-20183125285253132561322321724714982
BAKKEN12-20173127369274094833717428104646872
BAKKEN11-2017114202382317704681546262158
BAKKEN10-20170000000
BAKKEN9-2017248991004538186217873
BAKKEN8-20173113271351691265725640
BAKKEN7-20173110891009695263625430
BAKKEN6-20173010961141668255124610
BAKKEN5-20173112871226688261025170

Second period of interest, 1/12 - 11/12, initial production and the dreaded Bakken decline:
BAKKEN11-2012304284415921169475932067
BAKKEN10-201222325733211723908279491078
BAKKEN9-201230449944652451947083581029
BAKKEN8-201231579760003716923769142232
BAKKEN7-2012215932423331780231
BAKKEN6-2012306043605131601431787755452
BAKKEN5-2012225884623131021234246537623
BAKKEN4-2012216807581952971375045379150
BAKKEN3-201214359639402390786519915832
BAKKEN2-20122915195150891262031430626925074
BAKKEN1-20122528023748310828

The Grilling Page -- September 18, 2019

For the archives.

I hate the phrase, "caveman grilling," preferring to call it "direct charcoal cooking."

I honestly think this is the best steak I have ever tasted.

Took three minutes to "grill."

One-minute-thirty seconds each side, and I probably overcooked it by 20 - 40 seconds.

A non-descript top sirloin steak from Wal-Mart. A dry rub; the steak kept at room temperature while starting the fire.


Charcoal started with "charcoal lighter cubes."

Embers were ready to go in 20 minutes.

Three minutes on the charcoal. The fire was so hot, special grilling gloves were used.

Fifteen minutes in heavy aluminum foil. 

Lunch.





US Crude Oil Inventories Increase By Small Amount; Up 1.1 Million Bbls -- September 18, 2019

WTI: $58.42

EIA weekly petroleum report:
  • US crude oil inventories increased by 1.1 million bbls
  • US crude oil inventories stand at 417.1 million bbls, or about 2% below the five year average
  • refineries operating well below full capacity; operating at 91.2% capacity
  • crude oil imports almost 15% less than what it was last year over this four-week period
EIA's short term energy outlook also posted. I'll let others discuss it. It looks like US is migrating from inexpensive coal and hydro to very expensive wind to generate electricity. 


Re-balancing:
Week
Week Ending
Change
Million Bbls Storage
Week 0
November 21, 2018
4.9
446.9
Week 1
November 28, 2018
3.6
450.5
Week 2
December 6, 2018
-7.3
443.2
Week 3
December 12, 2018
-1.2
442.0
Week 4
December 19, 2018
-0.5
441.5
Week 5
December 28, 2018
0.0
441.4
Week 6
January 4, 2019
0.0
441.4
Week 7
January 9, 2019
-1.7
439.7
Week 8
January 16, 2019
-2.7
437.1
Week 9
January 24, 2019
8.0
445.0
Week 10
January 31, 2019
0.9
445.9
Week 11
February 6, 2019
1.3
447.2
Week 12
February 13, 2019
3.6
450.8
Week 13
February 21, 2019
3.7
454.5
Week 14
February 27, 2019
-8.6
445.9
Week 15
March 6, 2019
7.1
452.9
Week 16
March 13, 2019
-3.9
449.1
Week 17
March 20, 2019
-9.6
439.5
Week 18
March 27, 2019
2.8
442.3
Week 19
April 3, 2019
7.2
449.5
Week 20
April 10, 2019
7.0
456.5
Week 21
April 17, 2019
-1.4
455.2
Week 22
April 24, 2019
5.5
460.1
Week 23
May 1, 2019
9.9
470.6
Week 24
May 8, 2019
-4.0
466.6
Week 25
May 15, 2019
5.4
472.0
Week 26
May 22, 2019
4.7
476.8
Week 27
May 30, 2019
-0.3
476.5
Week 28
June 5, 2019
6.8
483.3
Week 29
June 12, 2019
2.2
485.5
Week 30
June 19, 2019
-3.1
482.4
Week 31
June 26, 2019
-12.8
469.6
Week 32
July 3, 2019
-1.1
468.5
Week 33
July 10, 2019
-9.5
459.0
Week 34
July 17, 2019
-3.1
455.9
Week 35
July 24, 2019
-10.8
445.1
Week 36
July 31, 2019
-8.5
436.5
Week 37
August 7, 2019
2.4
438.9
Week 38
August 14, 2019
1.6
440.5
Week 29
August 21, 2019
-2.7
437.8
Week 30
August 28, 2019
-10.0
427.8
Week 31
September 5, 2019
-4.8
423.0
Week 32
September 11, 2019
-6.9
416.1
Week 33
September 18, 2019
1.1
417.1