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Sunday, May 5, 2019

Boeing Story In WSJ Monday -- May 5, 2019

Yesterday I provided a "timeline" of sorts regarding Boeing's 737 Max 8 issue. We can now add another significant "dot" to that timeline. This will be in Monday's edition of The Wall Street Journal:
Boeing knew about safety-alert problem for a year before telling the FAA or the airlines that had acquired the 737 MAX 8.
The problem kept a safety feature found on earlier models from functioing on the 737 MAX.
It was only after a second MAX accident in Ethiopia nearly five months later, these officials said, that Boeing became more forthcoming with airlines about the problem. And the company didn’t publicly disclose the software error behind the problem for another six weeks, in the interim leaving the flying public and, according to a Federal Aviation Administration spokesman, the agency’s acting chief unaware.
The length of time between when Boeing realized the problem and when it shared that information hasn’t been previously reported. The problem kept a safety feature found on earlier models from functioning on the MAX, though it isn’t clear if the feature would have prevented either crash.
Futures are already way down for unrelated reasons. If the market opens as suggested by futures right now and then with this new Boeing story, I can only imagine the Boeing sell-off. (Wow, grammatically that's a bad sentence but you know what I mean.)

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any financial, job, travel, relationship, or investment decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

"What Fresh Hell Is This" -- Dorothy Parker -- May 5, 2019

So, what headlines brought this on (see futures below)?

Mideast:
  • Iran behind events along Gaza / Israeli border?
  • "all-out war imminent" per Drudge Report banner?
  • massive rocket barrage deep into Israel?
NK:
  • resumed launching missiles?
US Congress:
  • ready to impeach?
  • ready to subpoena?
  • ready to seat Mueller
China:
  • trade talks dead?
Venezuela:
  • Bolton's Bay of Pigs?
That telephone call?
  • a 1.5 hour Trump - Putin chat; more than just sharing a few jokes
  • if one looks closely, ones Putin's fingers everywhere: Cuba, Venezuela, North Korea, Iran
Profit-taking?
 

************************

With WTI down over 2% and trading just above $60, I suspect it has to do with the China talks, and not the Mideast flare. We'll see what twitter has to say. Earlier today, one credible source predicted "this" but unfortunately I did not take a screenshot, and I don't recall the issue, but I believe it was the 25% tariffs on Chinese goods not yet affected by the higher rates.

Twitter will provide insight overnight. The Drudge Report probably won't post "the banner" until after the open.

Random Update Of The XTO Nygaard Federal Wells In Lost Bridge, They Have Been Fracked; Still On SI/NC List -- May 5, 2019

The well:
  • 32921, SI/NC, XTO, Nygaard Federal 13X-5AXD, Lost Bridge, one day of production reported; but remains SI/NC as of 3/19; was fracked 5/28/18 - 7/01/18;  
    • 21702, back on status for one day as of 3/19; neighboring well;
Other XTO Nygaard wells that came off the confidential list in 2Q17; I assume they are "in line" with #32921 above: fracked but still on the SI/NC list, and production is just now being reported;
  • 32918, SI/NC, XTO, Nygaard Federal 13X-5F2, one day of production reported;
  • 32919, SI/NC, XTO, Nygaard Federal 13X-5B, one day of production reported;
  • 24228, SI/NC, XTO, Nygaard Federal 13X-5E, Lost Bridge, one day of production reported;
  • 32920, SI/NC, XTO, Nygaard Federal 13X-5EXH, Lost Bridge, one day of production reported;
  • 32917, SI/NC, XTO, Nygaard Federal 13X-5BXC, Lost Bridge, one day of production reported;
    • neighboring wells:
      • 21702 (see above)
      • 24228, SI/NC, XTO,Nygaard Federal 13X-5E, Lost Bridge, one day of production reported;
      • 17397, 1,290, XTO, Thelma Federal 11X-20, Lost Bridge, t6/09; cum 225K 5/18; off line as of 5/18; remains off line as of 3/19;

Random Example Of Another MRO "Mini-Re-Frack" In The Bakken -- May 5, 2019

The wells:
  • 32891, 4,093, MRO, Begola USA 34-22H, Antelope, t12/17; cum 271K 3/19;  (#19144)
    • 19144, 952, MRO, TAT USA 34-22H, 33-053-03182, Antelope-Sanish, t3/11; cum 444K 3/19; huge jump in production; see production profile here; re-fracked 11/3/17 - 11/5/17; 1.9 million gallons of water (a very small re-frack); 91% water by mass;
Maybe more later. Click on tag if interested.

The New Equinor/Statoil Mark 4 Wells Have Been Completed; IPs Have Been Reported -- May 5, 2019

In 2Q17, a number of Equinor/Statoil wells were completed. The IPs have now been reported:
  • 25958, 830, Equior/Statoil, Mark 4-9F-3H, Williston, t2/19; cum 17K 30 days;
  • 25957, 1,727, Equinor/Statoil, Mark 4-9F 4TFH, Williston, t2/19; cum 19K 26 days;
  • 25956, 1,828, Equinor/Statoil, Mark 4-9F 5H, Williston, t1/19; cum 14K 21 days;
  • 25955, 690, Equinor/Statoil, Mark 4-9F 6TFH, Williston, t1/19; cum 13K 31 days;
  • 25955, 690, Equinor/Statoil, Mark 4-9F 6TFH, Williston, t1/19; cum 13K 31 days;
  • 32293, 237, Equinor/Statoil, Mark 4-9F 8TFH, Williston, t1/19; cum 10K 21 days;

Random Look At Activity In The Bakken -- May 5, 2019

At least one well in this area has been off-line for a number of months. It was returned to production for one day in 3/19. When I get a chance, I will update this area, but one can see the amount of activity that is going on in the Bakken, the Antelope oil field where most wells target the Sanish.


The wells (to be updated later):
  • 32453, 3,396, MRO, Marcella USA 21-4TFH, Antelope, Sanish, 7/17; cum 245K 3/19;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    SANISH3-20191658962
    SANISH2-20190000000
    SANISH1-20190000000
    SANISH12-20180000000
    SANISH11-2018002710000
    SANISH10-201823367739004190886043703765
    SANISH9-2018304763503760261067318647966
     
  • 32455, 4,912, MRO, Cunningham USA 31-4H, Antelope-Sanish, t8/17; cum 391K 3/19:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH3-20191115323910117024511251906
SANISH2-20192873065330393021937903310618
SANISH1-201929633963543585278021254213552
SANISH12-2018317209736435082553323177186
SANISH11-20183087538429481230554234084929

  • 32454, 3,726, MRO, Garness USA 31-4TFH-2B, Antelope-Sanish, t7/17; cum 344K 3/19:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH3-20193183677017573521912776912378
SANISH2-201969721268806286614201097
SANISH1-20191757966210375415634107843362
SANISH12-201831105441075974973268829581265
SANISH11-2018301269011565801733825271433971
SANISH10-20188214633191770675928073498
SANISH9-2018301284313037887629102504121782
SANISH8-2018281123310342829831075483225345
 

Second Production Jump For A Whiting Wold Well In Banks Oil Field, #19468 -- May 5, 2019

This well has never been re-fracked. Full production for this well at this post.

For newbies: wells in the Bakken will be producing for 35 years. During that period of time, individual wells will undergo workovers, small re-fracks, major re-fracks, and will be impacted by neighboring fracks.

This is a great example of such a well. This well was drilled back in 2011. It has never been re-fracked. On two subsequent occasions, this well has shown a significant jump in production. The jump in production may not have lasted long (that's in the eye of the beholder) but each jump in production changes the slope of the decline curve; and, increases the EUR. In addition, mineral owners/stakeholders see a nice jump in their monthly royalties.

The well:
  • 19468, 866, Whiting, Wold 16-7H, Banks, t3/11; cum 329K 2/17;
Initial production after first (and only) frack:
BAKKEN9-2011301036910779356719963151344829
BAKKEN8-20112495189233596625734206223672
BAKKEN7-201130459945993789844847103738
BAKKEN6-20113015821159824064344981811116387
BAKKEN5-20113118324181264401346792205112628
BAKKEN4-2011302041719907472235060267438317
BAKKEN3-20112115870151132655926561026561
BAKKEN2-2011119001200120

Jump in production in 2017:
BAKKEN2-20172878268017666124501232691148
BAKKEN1-2017311011810342981030997296581246
BAKKEN12-201631121881184014836371122644510579
BAKKEN11-2016231033799772239529927029859
BAKKEN10-20161100000
BAKKEN9-20160000000
BAKKEN8-20160000000
BAKKEN7-20160000000
BAKKEN6-201626154018214945114502710
BAKKEN5-2016311947203075865535729731

And, now, another jump in production:
BAKKEN11-201830733874657719199681985721
BAKKEN10-20183112034121821186731352312572
BAKKEN9-2018301132611058152892844727531828
BAKKEN8-201825766073811645018150168931189
BAKKEN7-20181270028994764694
BAKKEN6-20180000000

Bakken Natural Gas Takeaway -- Re-Posting -- May 5, 2019

It's easy to forget. Earlier a reader noted that the Bakken is going to need more than just additional "local" pipeline to take away all the natural gas. This "local" project (see re-posting below) will connect to a major national pipeline.

From an earlier post:
From The Bismarck Tribune: natural gas liquids (NGLs) pipeline proposed for northwest North Dakota -- in other words, the heart of the Bakken. Wow! From the linked article:
  • ONEOK: seeking permit
  • Demicks Lake Pipeline Project
    • 77-mile-long pipeline
    • at $1 million/mile = $77 million estimate
    • the company says: $125 million
    • seventy-five miles inside state of ND
    • includes nine miles under the Little Missouri National Grassland with existing infrastructure
  • from a processing plant under construction in McKenzie County
    • Demicks Lake I and Demicks Lake II: both under construction northeast of Watford City
    • would add a total processing capacity of 400 million cfpd
    • Demicks Lake I should be completed by 4Q19
  • 40,000 bbls of NGLs/day from Watford City area to Richland County, MT
  • Elk Creek Pipeline will be constructed in Richland County (would that be Sidney, MT?)
    • Elk Creek pipeline under construction, from Sidney, MT, to Bushton, Kansas: capacity - 240,000 bpd
  • seventy-five miles inside state of ND
  • both pipelines would transport Y-grade natural gas liquids; transported together, separated later; see this RBN Energy on Y-grade NGLs;
  • there are no reservations along the planned route
  • there was no mention of sage grouse
  • "existing infrastructure" always has a nice ring to it
The Bismarck Tribune link here.

The Elk Creek pipeline:
The $125 million project will connect with the Elk Creek Pipeline, a 900-mile pipeline under construction to transport natural gas liquids from Sidney, Montana, to Bushton, Kansas.

TransMountain Pipeline News -- All In The Last 24 Hours -- May 5, 2019

Links here:

Oasis Well: Production Jumps Almost 20X -- Not Re-Fracked -- The Excitement Of The Bakken -- May 5, 2019

Better production ten years later than when it was first drilled/fracked/completed in 2009. 

Let's see: 14,517/816 = can we say production jumped almost 18x -- or almost 20x -- after daughters were fracked? See full production profile at this post. This well runs diagonally under/over a number of daughter wells.

Disclaimer: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken.

The well:
  • 17986, 510, Oasis, Aagvik 1-35H, API 33-053-03008, Banks, t12/09; cum 213K 3/19; this well runs diagonally under/over all the "new" Aagvik wells being drilled/fracked.
Not re-fracked, according to FracFocus.
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20193114517143261103546044457340
BAKKEN2-20192813631136161079242137352426615
BAKKEN1-20197368033563350981159313810
BAKKEN12-20180000000
BAKKEN11-20180000000
BAKKEN10-20180000000
BAKKEN9-20180000000
BAKKEN8-20180000000
BAKKEN7-201824470559100102875632
BAKKEN6-20182052658701274105222
BAKKEN5-20180000000
BAKKEN4-20181535429119094277517
BAKKEN3-2018318168691802176184224
BAKKEN2-2018215766000144912390

Oasis Aagvik Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- May 5, 2019

The sound of fracking! What a beautiful noise!

Beautiful Noise, Neil Diamond

If this doesn't get you excited about the Bakken, nothing will.

Disclaimer: I'm inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken.

The Oais Aagvik wells are tracked here.

Aagvik wells coming off the confidential list this next week.

34811, conf, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 41-35 15T, Banks,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20192306876935
2-20191781853613
1-20191935950571
12-20182315544748
11-2018133710

34036, conf, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 41-35 2TX, Banks,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20191347439371
2-20192536178421
1-20192050351107
12-20182053230468
11-2018155118378

34040, conf, Oasis, Aagik 5298 41-35 6T, Banks,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20192082365333
2-20192285073685
1-20192153462332
12-20182057542041
11-2018140156195

34039, conf, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 41-35 5B, Banks, 

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-201929148111890
2-20192537687240
1-20192497879018
12-20182610758419
11-20181635511170

34037, conf, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 41-35 3BX, Banks,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20193226083927
2-201943880137960
1-201953782143823
12-201859019100860
11-20183040828130

Price Of Gasoline In California Could Be Decreasing This Next Week; Saudi Cuts Price Of Oil To US After Trump Call -- May 5, 2019

From a reader in Paso Robles, CA, last week: I just filled up with premium gasoline, $4.459/gallon. 

California imports 75% of its crude oil. Most of that comes from Saudi Arabia, I believe. Could be wrong.

Saudi Arabia bases its price on Brent and Brent is generally $10/bbl more expensive than WTI.

Saudi increased its prices for oil headed to Europe; decreased prices headed to the US -- after President Trump called.


I'm not worried; I'm watching another movie. But it does raise a question: just how important was all that Venezuelan, Libyan, Nigerian oil all these past years -- oh, that's right -- that was pre-US shale ....


Indictment of US public schools:


The questions are ridiculously easy if taught.

********************************
Global Warming? Global Droughts? 
How About Global Flooding?

Iowa. Historic Mississippi River could extend into June. Perhaps all those windmills should have been used to lift water out of the river. Whatever.

California yet to report. Fourth snowiest winter on record. Sierra snowpack 188% of normal. Video posted fourteen hours ago. Mercury News.


Oroville:
  • tallest dam in the US
  • second-largest man-made lake in the state of California
  • Lake Oroville is the linchpin of California's state water movement system
  • failure is not an option
  • February, 2017: threatened to fail
  • most recent update at wiki:
On April 2, 2019, due to heavy rainfall upstream, the DWR began releasing water over the newly reconstructed spillway at a rate of 8,300cfs.  Releases were increased to 25,000 cfs on April 7 to test how the spillway performs in higher flows. They were decreased to 15,000 cfs on April 9.
Lake Mead: water level four feet higher than 2017, 2018. Link here.

*************************
Short War

When it was announced that Guaidó began the revolution, I said it would be a short war. Now this headline in The New York Post:  Venezuela’s Juan Guaidó says he overestimated military support.

Bolton's Bay of Pigs.

Trump continues to get really bad advice.

Venezuela will do just fine without US intervention. If we get involved, "we own it."

Initial Production Data For Selected Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- May 5, 2019

34550, conf, EOG, Austin 411-2919H, Parshall,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-201972442005
2-201965555512
1-201974559642
12-201881546830
11-201852611094

34811, conf, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 41-35 15T, Banks,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20192306876935
2-20191781853613
1-20191935950571
12-20182315544748
11-2018133710

34751, conf, Lime Rock Resources III-A, LP, Schneider 11-33-28H-143-96, Fayette,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-2019144123694
2-201992963560
1-201960992461
12-201871233078
11-20182972699

33124, conf, Bruin E&P Operating, LLC, Fort Berthold 147-94-1B-12-13H, McGregory Buttes,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-2019247517658
2-20192218011962
1-20193144119121
12-2018108737669
11-2018170259370

34425, conf, Oasis, Martin 5302 11-4 4B, Rosebud,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-2019157820
2-2019139960
1-2019159290
12-2018170810
11-2018203020

35199, conf, WPX, North Mabel 2-35HF, Mandaree,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-2019206409139

34036, conf, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 41-35 2TX, Banks,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20191347439371
2-20192536178421
1-20192050351107
12-20182053230468
11-2018155118378

29135, conf, Bruin, Fort Berthold 147-94-1B-12-6H, McGregory Buttes,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-2019296659980
2-20193335416475
1-2019145427869
12-20182350014465
11-20183880718969

 35201, conf, WPX, North Mabel 2-35HB, Mandaree,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-2019191238439

34427, conf, Oasis, Martin 5302 11-4 2B,  Rosebud,


DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-2019182630
2-2019186270
1-2019121760
12-2018198400
11-2018212820

34040, conf, Oasis, Aagik 5298 41-35 6T, Banks,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20192082365333
2-20192285073685
1-20192153462332
12-20182057542041
11-2018140156195

34039, conf, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 41-35 5B, Banks, 

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-201929148111890
2-20192537687240
1-20192497879018
12-20182610758419
11-20181635511170

34037, conf, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 41-35 3BX, Banks,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20193226083927
2-201943880137960
1-201953782143823
12-201859019100860
11-20183040828130