North Dakota / the Bakken is mentioned in this article.
The statistics are quite interesting.
Random thought: OXY's strong interest in Anadarko/the Permian? The "replacement" for its California assets spun off some years ago. An "unhealthy" rebound relationship?
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
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Two Days Until May, 2019
Global warming hits North Dakota.
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Crawfish Season
A night out with just Sophia and me. Sophia took both pictures. I could not take a photograph of her, for obvious reasons. LOL. Fish City Grill, Southlake Boulevard, Southlake, TX. The first pound of crawfish. Flavor: "Old Bay." $5.99 / pound.
This may amount to nothing but a very credible reader has sent me a note suggesting it might be interesting to follow the Oroville Dam spillway for the next few months. For the archives.
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Robert Osborne -- For The Movie Buffs
This is a very, very long interview.
Well worth it.
This is just part one of three parts. The first two parts are each about 30 minutes. The third part of three is fifteen minutes.
Ten years later, ObamaCare was signed into law on March 23, 2010.
Less than a decade later, this headline: this is the worst
year for measles in
the US since the
disease was eliminated nationally in 2000. But that's CNBC so it may be fake news. Let's fact check:
Buzzfeed: measles outbreaks in the US are now the worst on record since the disease was eradicated (that word again: eradicated)
CDC, Atlanta, Georgia:
US measles cases at highest level since elimination nearly 20 years
ago, according to CDC (for ESL readers: "eradication" and "elimination"
are very similar in meaning)
Again, thank you Mr Orrin Hatch, R-Utah. The data suggests this has little to do with the "southern surge."
Timeline:
measles eradication in the US
that Lancet article (Lancet is the most prestigious medical journal in the world)
Orrin Hatch
ObamaCare
social media
measles epidemic in the US
Occasional-Cortex is looking better and better every day.
Cost of measles vaccine:
MMRII: $75
but for the really good stuff, ProQuad: $214.37 (the vaccine includes the "chickenpox vaccine)
Giant Saudi field can pump 5 million b/d, Aramco exec says
Tuesday, April 30, 2019.
Saudi Arabia's Ghawar oil field can produce up to 5 million b/d if required, even though its capacity was put at 3.8 million b/d in Aramco's bond prospectus.
From the NDIC today. This is really quite remarkable -- in a bit more than five months -- more than 107K ... I remember when when the Bakken boom began -- folks were excited when operators were producing 100K in 18 to 24 months. Now, it's typical for operators to hit 100K in less than six months. Amazing ...
34784, 1,098, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-2H, 73 stages; 10.2 million lbs, Eightmile oil field, t11/18; cum 108K 3/19;
US consumer spending, euphemistically called "purchases," make up more than two-thirds of the US economy: rose almost 1% in March, topping estimates --- and then get this, which was not in the headline -- the GAIN was the BEST GAIN in almost a decade.
The Democrats' response: resist! Buttigieg's response: we need to change course.
Reuters suggests February's low number -- a "slow response" as they say -- was due to the government shutdown. Reuters just had to get that in there. The government shutdown? Wow, talk about a stretch. How long ago was that? LOL.
Personal income: rose 0.1% -- but that was less than forecast. Wage inflation? Hardly?
And then this, the Fed's preferred core-price gauge:
unchanged
forecast for a 0.1% gain
and, again, buried in the story and not the headline: the CPI gain was the slowest since January, 2018
The Fed? More and more it appears Jerome Powell doesn't want to be seen as an idiot.
I'm not sure a rate cut is even needed any more based on new data. It's
almost as if Powell missed an opportunity and is now trying to play
catch up --- and it may not be needed.
From the linked Reuters article:
The signs of consumer strength follow Friday’s gross domestic product
report showing consumer spending, the largest chunk of the economy,
cooled in the first quarter to a 1.2 percent pace of gains. That was
offset by boosts from inventories and trade that helped economic growth
accelerate to a 3.2 annualized rate.
By the way, this is all very interesting.
At the Schwab seminar we attended last week, the speaker said these three things are now the major factors affecting the stock market:
fiscal policy: Congress out of control, but no one cares, and it's already baked into the stock market
monetary policy: no need to raise rates; more likely no action this year, but a rate cut is possible
trade policy: bark bigger than its bite.
When I asked about trade policy, it was pointed out that for the market in general, "trade" is much ado about nothing. The speaker said that the US economy is driven by consumer spending. The linked story at Reuters said exactly that: more than 2/3rds of the US economy is consumer spending. Trade policy with China will have very little effect on GDP or the market.
The real issue with trade, the speaker said, was espionage, spying, etc. Not "trade, per se."
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Looking Forward To This Evening
Monday night, crawfish special, "Fish City Grill."
Not only is it just plain cold, we can’t even warm ourselves up with a big platter of freshly boiled crawfish!
This winter has been one of the coldest that southern Louisiana has seen in several decades. Which means that it will be one of the latest crawfish seasons that most of us can remember. Many of the ponds are actually iced over—not a common sight in south Louisiana!
Check out this video of our crawfish supplier out at their ponds in Louisiana—those are sheets of ice on the water.
Cold weather keeps the crawfish burrowed down in the mud, and they
will stay that way until the temperature of the pond water consistently
gets above 50° (many ponds are currently at 40° or so—sheesh!). At that
point they will begin moving and eating, however, most all of the
crawfish are, well, babies. They are not big enough for harvesting.
I will be taking Sophia to Fish City Grill -- for crawfish. On special right now, at $8.99/lb, but on Mondays for the next couple of weeks, $5.99/lb.
Global warming smacks the Bakken. From KX News Storm Team -- more weather --
Hope springs eternal: $100 oil -- from Bloomberg -- the price of oil is not the issue. The volatility, the rate of change -- that's the real problem. If oil spikes to $100/bbl by the end of the summer, not so good for the global economy. If oil gradually climbts to $100/bbl over the next five years, awesome.
From an old post:
Births: it's well-known among moms that pregnant women (as
opposed to pregnant men?) are more likely to go into labor during a full
moon than any other time. Now, we know that babies tend to weigh less
at birth when moms live near fracking sites. I honestly cannot believe The Wall Street Journal published this study.
I read the headline and part of the first paragraph ... that was all I
needed. Having said that, my guess is that moms with a history of
delivering 11-pound babies will gladly move near a fracking site now
that this study has been released.
Bitcoin: I haven't followed Bitcoin in months. It seems like a year since I last read anything about bitcoin. Apparently not all is well in paradise. Perhaps it's difficult to mine bitcoin during the winter. I don't know. And, of course, Hillary talked about putting a lot of miners out of work.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
Ford: regains bragging rights. Ford regained its status as the #2 US car maker in market value, leaving Tesla Inc behind after a massive earnings beat that stoked a rally for Ford stock. Data points:
market cap:
GM: $56 billion
Ford: $40.7 billion
Tesla: $40.6 billion
Meanwhile, Tesla may seek alternative financing sources -- Reuters. Musk Melon speaks with forked tongue:
Tesla Inc said on Monday it could seek alternative sources of financing
although it expects cash generated from its business to be enough to
fund its investments and pay down debt for at least the next 12 months. [Memo to self: look up idiom, "too many irons in the fire."]
GM: will report tomorrow, Tuesday.
Pre-market trading: blah.
OXY: on news that Anadarko looking at OXY's bid and WTI below $63, OXY drops another $1.55, now trading pre-market at $59.76
SRE: off the radar scope; trading at $128; 52-week high, $130; paying 3%; will report May 7, 2019;
XOM: despite really bad earnings report, still holding at $80; pays 4%
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They Must Be Reading The Blog
I posted this exact sentiment years ago and was probably one of the first to do so. From a 2017 posting:
Global warming? The house of cards is starting to fall.
Garbage in, garbage out. Years ago, when I first started blogging, I
placed popsicle sticks in a San Pedro harbor beach and monitored the
Pacific Ocean sea level for five consecutive years. The popsicle had
notches every one-eighth inch. I noted that the level of the Pacific
Ocean rose an eighth of an inch one year but then dropped a quarter inch
the following year, although that may have been an anomaly (as NASA
would say) since it was clear that a dog had been playing with the
popsicle stick after I found it lying horizontally on the beach. I will
continue to monitor. Parking rates at the beach are upwards of $20/day
so I may have to apply for a government grant to continue the research.
Now this from the 'net -- a bit old but I just found it --
************************************ Great Weekend At Copeland's
Nothing like a bit of "comfort food" after reading about global warming. LOL.
Sophia and I really had a great weekend. On Sunday we capped it off by visiting Copelands of New Orleans. We went around 3:00 p.m. just for dessert. She chose chocolate cake. Wow, she loved it.
The serving was big enough for a family a four. Seriously.
She ate all the ice cream and a small amount of the cake. We took what she did not eat home. Her two sisters and her dad loved the cake; we added more ice cream to it, and the cake served four. LOL.
Solar in North Dakota: for the archives. Harmony Project near Fargo.
Tussle: TSLA tumbles to two-year low after Musk-Cramer exchange. For the archives.
Rate cut? Fed may end up seeing 1995 - 1996 rate cuts as a template for today. Bloomberg.
Trump: like him, hate him. ignore him at your peril. He said he was going to get oil prices lowered. After his 3:00 a.m. call to Prince Salman WTI drops $3.00. This morning WTI remains under pressure. Support: if WTI hits $60, watch out below.
Surprising: Exxon's dismal refining results. No links; story everywhere.
Global warming: scrolling through iceagenow over the past several days -- amazing how cold it is worldwide; how long this winter has been; how much snow has fallen and is falling. Winter storm Xyler, late April, 2019, one for the record books.
Talk radio: huge fund-raising across the states for Trump; setting all-time records -- including Florida, New York, California. Texas particularly noteworthy: no Democrat has raised $1 million in Texas this year (so far). Trump: over the weekend: $5.6 million. Prior to that, $6 million, for a total of almost $12 million so far in 2019. In 2016, Trump got only $16 million for the entire year. May or may not be accurate; heard on talk radio; may have misheard, yada, yada, yada.
Talk radio: Boeing's 737 Max 8 story no quick fix.
Talk radio: The Virginia Cavaliers, winners of this year's NCAA men's basketball tournament, won't be going to the White House to celebrate with President Donald Trump.
Avengers: Endgame -- $1.3 billion worldwide opening weekend. Our oldest granddaughter went. She absolutely loved it. Left her crying at the end. Said she couldn't stop crying for thirty minutes.
Exxon Mobil Corp.’s worst refining performance in almost two decades
may revive questions from analysts about the the so-called integrated
model engineered by founder John D. Rockefeller and espoused by every
CEO in the company’s 149-year history.
A surprise loss in a business line Exxon typically relies on to prop
up more volatile units eroded first-quarter profit and cast doubt on the
strength of the oil titan’s comeback from its annus horribilis in 2018.
In the last decade, when other oil companies spun off refining
businesses to concentrate of drilling for crude, Exxon steadfastly
adhered to the wells-to-retail model. The refining loss is particularly
stinging for Exxon Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods, who rose
through the ranks of the fuel-making side of the company rather than the
oil-exploration business of his chief competitor for the top job,
Senior Vice President Jack Williams, and predecessor Rex Tillerson.
First of many: Anadarko will be the first of many buys in 2019 -- Rigzone. Clickbait -- it's simply a story of a single analyst saying this.
Huge Russian pipeline shutdown: crude oil contaminated with organic chlorides; corrosive; damaging to pipelines, refiners. One million bopd from the Urals into eastern Europe (Poland, Germany, Hungary, Slovakia, and Czech Republic). [Update, April 30, 2019: Poland releasing emergency oil stocks.]
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Back to the Bakken
Wells coming off the confidential list this weekend, Monday -- Monday, April 29, 2019: 92 wells for the month; 92 wells for the quarter
The biggest driver of generally rising LPG exports is the widening gap
between how much LPG the U.S. consumes and how much it produces —
there’s simply too much of the stuff, and LPG-hungry European and Asian
markets beckon. But month-to-month export volumes are often erratic,
affected by a wide range of variables. Winter weather in Wisconsin.
Steam cracker economics in Germany. Propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plant
outages in China. Not to mention lingering fog or a tank-farm fire along
the Houston Ship Channel, or the startup of a new NGL pipeline to the
Marcus Hook terminal near Philly. Add to all this the export-volume
spikes that may come later this year and in 2020 when new dock capacity
comes online along the Gulf Coast. Today, we take a look at what drives
the monthly ups and downs in exports.
hanks to the Shale Revolution and the burgeoning production of NGLs,
the U.S. flipped from being a net LPG importer to a net exporter back in
2012. Since then, LPG exports by ship have soared — to a record 1.375
MMb/d so far in April, and further gains are likely as NGL output continues to rise and
domestic demand for propane and butane (the “purity products” that make
up LPG) remains close to flat on an annual basis. But it hasn’t been a
smooth, steady rise in export volumes; there have been a lot of ups and
downs along the way, most of them tied to the long list of variables
that can affect how much LPG is loaded onto ships each day, week and
month.
One important factor, of course, is how the prices of propane and
butane in the U.S. compare with prices in key destination markets such
as Asia and Europe. For example, the combination of rising propane
prices in Europe in early April and rock-steady prices for propane at
Mont Belvieu (the Texas NGL fractionation and storage hub) increased the
arbitrage value (or “arb”) for propane exports from the Gulf Coast to
Europe to more than 20 cents/gal (c/gal) by mid-April (blue line in
Figure 1). At the same time, still-higher propane prices in Asia
increased the Mont Belvieu-Asia arb (red line) to nearly 40 c/gal in
recent days, pulling more propane from the Gulf Coast to that part of
the world.
