Making America Great Again -- April 29, 2019

If it weren't for Drudge, no one would notice ---

Goldlilocks economy, March, 2019, data:

• US consumer spending picks up;
• US core inflation cools.

What's not to like?

US consumer spending, euphemistically called "purchases," make up more than two-thirds of the US economy: rose almost 1% in March, topping estimates --- and then get this, which was not in the headline -- the GAIN was the BEST GAIN in almost a decade.

The Democrats' response: resist!
Buttigieg's response: we need to change course.

Reuters suggests February's low number -- a "slow response" as they say -- was due to the government shutdown. Reuters just had to get that in there. The government shutdown? Wow, talk about a stretch. How long ago was that? LOL.

Personal income: rose 0.1% -- but that was less than forecast. Wage inflation? Hardly?

And then this, the Fed's preferred core-price gauge:

• unchanged
• forecast for a 0.1% gain
• and, again, buried in the story and not the headline: the CPI gain was the slowest since January, 2018

The Fed? More and more it appears Jerome Powell doesn't want to be seen as an idiot. I'm not sure a rate cut is even needed any more based on new data. It's almost as if Powell missed an opportunity and is now trying to play catch up --- and it may not be needed.

From the linked Reuters article:

The signs of consumer strength follow Friday’s gross domestic product report showing consumer spending, the largest chunk of the economy, cooled in the first quarter to a 1.2 percent pace of gains. That was offset by boosts from inventories and trade that helped economic growth accelerate to a 3.2 annualized rate.

By the way, this is all very interesting.

At the Schwab seminar we attended last week, the speaker said these three things are now the major factors affecting the stock market:

• fiscal policy: Congress out of control, but no one cares, and it's already baked into the stock market
• monetary policy: no need to raise rates; more likely no action this year, but a rate cut is possible
• trade policy: bark bigger than its bite.

When I asked about trade policy, it was pointed out that for the market in general, "trade" is much ado about nothing. The speaker said that the US economy is driven by consumer spending. The linked story at Reuters said exactly that: more than 2/3rds of the US economy is consumer spending. Trade policy with China will have very little effect on GDP or the market.

The real issue with trade, the speaker said, was espionage, spying, etc. Not "trade, per se."

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Looking Forward To This Evening

Monday night, crawfish special, "Fish City Grill."

Crawfish boil; potatoes and corn. 

c. 2019: Fish City Grill.

Not only is it just plain cold, we can’t even warm ourselves up with a big platter of freshly boiled crawfish!

This winter has been one of the coldest that southern Louisiana has seen in several decades. Which means that it will be one of the latest crawfish seasons that most of us can remember. Many of the ponds are actually iced over—not a common sight in south Louisiana!

Check out this video of our crawfish supplier out at their ponds in Louisiana—those are sheets of ice on the water.

Cold weather keeps the crawfish burrowed down in the mud, and they will stay that way until the temperature of the pond water consistently gets above 50° (many ponds are currently at 40° or so—sheesh!). At that point they will begin moving and eating, however, most all of the crawfish are, well, babies. They are not big enough for harvesting.

I will be taking Sophia to Fish City Grill -- for crawfish. On special right now, at $8.99/lb, but on Mondays for the next couple of weeks, $5.99/lb.

Hopefully nothing interferes with our plans.

See also this link, and the February, 2019 post.

Of the many I looked at this, this might be one of the best: