The Jersey wells are tracked here; updated. This page won't be updated. I'm not going through the whole "deal" like I usually do. I'm just going to post the recent production profile for an older Jersey well.
The well:
27831, 918, CLR, Jersey 28-6H3, Alkali Creek, off-line 1/15; back on-line 5/15, t5/15; cum 134K 1/19; jump in production 12/18; this well was not re-fracked --
Offshore wind energy in New England: too long to go into, but offshore wind faces new headwinds (no pun intended).
Connecticut: looking to put in new tolls on highways to pocket revenue from out-of-state drivers, but it will be a major tax on in-state drivers, also. If it moves, tax it.
Federal minimum wage: US House has advanced a bill to raise the federal minimum wage to $15/hour, more than double the current level.
Video rental: with the closing of Blockbuster in Australia, there will be just one video rental store left on this plant with that name, and it's in Bend, Oregon. I remember several years ago, the US stopped the merger of two major video rental on the basis that the merger would monopolize video rental business. Wow. What a bunch of idiots. At the time, Netflix, one of many, was just beginning.
A reader alerted me to these wells in Burke County, pretty much a tier 3 area. I haven't looked at a "hot spot" map lately but I would assume this is where the Three Forks would "pinch out," and one might think the Three Forks wells would be better than middle Bakken wells. But note the newest well, a middle Bakken well, #34766, with production profile down below. A few observations:
the earlier wells, Three Forks or middle Bakken were not "good" wells but they did what they were supposed to do (we've talked about that before)
the early wells were small fracks
even #34766 was a relatively small frack
perhaps with better understanding of the geology, and optimized completion (frack) strategies, this area can move to Tier 2, or even Tier 1 -- depending somewhat on price of oil
The graphic:
The wells:
22032, 80, Petro Harvester Operating, AV-Flugge-162-94-1918H-1, Larson oil field, middle Bakken, 34 stages; 1.96 million lbs, TD = 17,988 feet, t7/12; cum 60K 1/1/9;
19098, 193, Petro Harvester, AV-Iverson-162-94-2314H-1, Larson, Three Forsk, 18 stages; 169,510 lbs proppant; TD = 17,856 feet, t10/10; cum 98K 1/19;
34766, 638, CLR, Steve 1-34H, Larson, TD = 19,135 feet, middle Bakken, 34 stages; 6.2 million lbs, t9/18; cum 67K 1/19;
21628, 273, CLR, Winkler 1-3H, Larson, TD = 18,406 feet, Three Forks, 30 stages; 3 million lbs, t7/13; cum 131K 1/19;
21679, 42, CLR, Running 1-4H, Border oil field, TD = 18,680 feet, Three Forks, 30 stages, 3.5 million lbs, t2/12; cum 147K 1/19;
27118, 427, CLR, Priebe 1-5H1, Border, TD = 18,460 feet, Three Forks, 30 stages, 4.4 million lbs, t6/14; cum 114K 1/19;
17704, 118, XTO, Sig 21X-6, Border, TD = 18,249, Three Forks, open hole, 740K lbs, t2/09; cum 82K 1/19;
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Production
The well:
34766, 638, CLR, Steve 1-34H, Larson, TD = 19,135 feet, middle Bakken, 34 stages; 6.2 million lbs, t9/18; cum 67K 1/19;
Re-balancing? ArgusMedia is reporting that US gasoline inventories will drain faster than normal through the summer gasoline season as refiners keep their equipment focused on diesel production. It will be interesting to see if this affects the 28-day supply currently reported in the US. A 20-day supply is about "right" but we haven't seen that low supply for "ages." For quite some time now, the US has had a 28-day to 32-day supply of gasoline. But if Phillips 66 is correct in their assessment, watch for the price of gasoline to trend significantly higher.
Quick: on a percentage basis, how much crude oil does Texas production account for vs the nation's total production? The answer: 37%. Natural gas? The answer: 24% of the country's marketed natural gas production.
No politics here, simply too funny not to post:
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Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:
$56.59
3/7/2019
03/07/2018
03/07/2017
03/07/2016
03/07/2015
Active Rigs
65
60
44
35
114
Four new permits:
Operator: Hess
Field: Dollar Joe (Williams)
Comments: Hess has permits for a 4-well GO-Hauge pad in section 21-156-97 in Dollar Joe oil field;
Seventeen permits renewed: pending
Whiting (8): five Wold Federal permits in McKenzie county; a Sue permit in Williams County, and two P Lynch permits in Williams County
Sinclair (6): six Lizzie Rae permits in McKenzie County
Petro-Hunt (2): two USA permits in McKenzie County
EOG: a Hardscrabble permit in Williams County
Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed: pending
34262, 4,136, MRO, Yellow Otter USA 14-7TFH, Reunion Bay, t2/19; cum --; (#19095, #23176, #21458)
19095: t12/10; cum 428K 1/19; off line
23176: t1/13; cum 389K 1/19; off line
21458: t1/13; cum 462K 1/19; offline
34260, 2,703, MRO, Walking Eagle USA 44-12TFH, Reunion Bay, t2/19; cum --;
34261, 5,035, MRO, Young Woiman USA 44-12H, Reunion Bay, t2/19; cum --;
34449, 3,332, MRO, Grant USA 21-18 TFH, Van Hook, t9/18; cum --;
This is a very, very long video, but some interesting data points:
the "flood myth" has been around since "Genesis" (the Bible); every culture, every generation has feared the "flood"; now in the 21st century, we have "rising seas" and more flooding
fracking was not on anyone's radar scope (something I mentioned early on -- it's interesting that someone else noted the very same thing noted on the blog many, many years ago); fracking's success was out the barn door before they could close the door;
the thesis of this long video is very, very interesting and goes back to Paul R Ehrlich
what better way to stop human growth (and literally genocide in some cases) than by killing fossil fuel; nothing else has worked; Malthus was wrong;
the Obama administration set the stage for the need for solar/wind to meet electricity demand since the earth was running out of oil and gas; and then fracking turned everything around
folks coming of age in the 1960s (like me) remember Paul R Ehrlich and the coming ice age
humans will do much better in a global warming scenario than in a global cooling scenario
see previous post regarding amount of wheat being grown globally
for decades -- all the decades of my life -- -- the environmental scare was an ice age, global cooling, not global warming
over and over, The New York Times, The [London] Guardian] -- we are running out of time
most recent UN scare: with no action, the earth will come to an end in 2020 -- we have but one more year
Occasional-Cortex says we now have twelve more years -- much better than the one year that the UN gives us: with twelve more years, all three granddaughters will be able to graduate from high school
Maldives were supposed to completely disappear by 2018 -- didn't happen
the historian points out why we are shutting down nuclear reactors -- the ground was set back during the Carter administration
1988: front page of NY Times, NASA scientist Hanson started it all
remember the days of "water by request only" -- LOL; haven't heard that in ages (and we're still being offered plastic straws); "waters by request only" -- NYC ordinance in 1967; but since the 1970s almost no droughts in NY area; prior to 1970, lots of years of drought in NYC
Hanson: Manhattan under water by 2018 or 2019; Hanson stands by his predictions
Hanson: Arctic ice-free by 2018; not quite
Algore: Arctic ice-free by 2014
US Navy predicts summer ice free Arctic by 2016
UN, 2005: 50 million environmental refugees within one decade - that would have been 2015; didn't see that happening;
Pentagon: climate change will destroy us; by the year 2020;
and, it goes on and on.
every data point is documented; not opinion by the narrator
nice explanation of the Arctic ice cap this year and the severe cold we expected
global warming: causes more snow and cold
NY Times and The [London] Guardian can count on the short memories of humans
follow the blooming of the Washington, DC, cherry blossoms
this all explains why the UN and the US Congress have not supported any "Manhattan Project" to save humanity -- the movers and shakers know that the earth is not going to end in twelve years -- or even by 2100
The Fed: less than six months in office, Jerome Powell managed to push the US into a slow-growth mode by increasing, and promising to increase again, and again, the "Fed rate." The story being spun now is that the "Fed" did this so that it would have an arrow in its quiver, a tool in its toolkit, an ace in its hand if things started to turn sour. By raising rates, the new spin, the "Fed" can now cut rates.
In retrospect, was he missing that one final screw; one card short of a full deck; to be honest, did he have a clue?
I'm Going Slightly Mad, Queen
The blog: I'm not going to look for it but about a week ago I suggested that the next "Fed" move might be a cut. Forget about all that talk about another increase in the "rate." Yesterday, this headline: US economy to slow significantly, and the Atlanta, GA, folks are sticking by their dismal 1Q19 forecast: 0.3% growth. Wow.
Now: over at twitter, John Kemp suggests the next US Fed move will be to cut rates. Wow.
Mom's advice: if you can't say something nice about Jerome Powell, don't say anything at all. So, we move on.
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NBA
Updates
March 18, 2019: and there we are! Or, better, there he is! Dirk had to make four points last night to move up one notch, overtaking Wilt Chamberlain. He made two two-point games relatively early in the game. Really, really exciting.
March 17, 2019: since the Spurs game, the Mavericks have played two more games. They lost 100 - 99 to the Las Vegas Nuggets; Dirk scored nine points in 19 minutes of play. So, that would have put Dirk 17 points away from moving up the all-time scoring list. Then, yesterday (Saturday), the Mavericks finally won a game, beating the Cleveland Cavaliers 121 - 166. Dirk: wow -- 14 points in 29 minutes. It was a home game. That should mean he is one basket from tying Wilt Chamberlain in all-time scoring. Let's check. Wilt Chamberlain, 31,419. Dirk Nowitzki, 31,416. Yes! Three more points. It's a home game, tomorrow (Monday) night -- against the New Orleans Pelicans. Start time: 7:30 p.m. By 8:00 p.m. it "all be over." Tune in late and you will miss the excitement.
March 14, 2019: the Mavericks lost to the San Antonio Spurs last night. Dirk is now 26 points away from tying Wilt Chamberlain for career scoring. With 15 games to play, Dirk has to average 1.73 points per game. Some here in north Texas are concerned that Dirk may not be able to do that. LOL. Game plan: start Dirk -- once he scores one basket, pull him out to rest.
March 12, 2019: near the end of the game; Dirk will probably not play any more; he scored eight points tonight. If that's where it ends, then 34 -8 = 28. Dirk would need 28 points over the last ten games to move up one notch on the all-time scoring list, moving ahead of Wilt Chamberlain.
March 10, 2019: it's early in the second half of the Dallas-Houston Rockets game. Dirk has made six points in the game tonight, suggesting that Dirk needs 34 more points to move ahead of Wilt Chamberlain on the all-time NBA scoring list. The Mavericks have eleven games left after tonight. Assuming Dirk is out for the rest of the game, 34/11 = 3 points per game. Dirk is averaging about five points/game this season.
March 9, 2019: Dirk Nowitzki had a great night last night against the Orlando Magic, scoring 15 points, I believe. I believe Dirk now needs 40 points to become the 6th leading NBA all-time scorer, moving Wilt Chamberlain from 6th to 7th in the process. Dirk is averaging about 5 points/game this season. As noted, he scored 15 last night. If that's all accurate, he needs 40 more points in the 15 remaining regular season games. The Dallas Mavericks won't be playing in the post-season. So, 40 points / 15 games = 2.7 points / game.
Original Post
Am I missing something here?
I don't follow the NBA. I used to -- when Phil Jackson was coaching the Chicago Bulls and we got to watch Scotty Pippin, Dennis Rodman, and Michael Jordan -- but about the time James LeBron move to the LA Lakers I quit following the NBA. But I digress.
The talk down here in Dallas is that Dirk Nowitzki might move up one spot in the all-time NBA scoring list. This is likely his last season to play for the NBA. There are eighteen games left in the regular season. His team, the Dallas Mavericks, will not make the playoffs.
The spreadsheet:
Wilt Chamberlain: 31,419 all-time points scored in the NBA
Dirk Nowitzki: 31,364
the delta: 55 points
Do the math: 55 points / 18 games = almost 3 points exactly / game
But the talk down here in Dallas is, also, that Dirk Nowitzki might not move up one notch.
Give me a break: he needs three points / game on average to move up one spot. Are folks suggesting that one of the best players of all time can't manage that? I must be missing something. But there it is: his average so far this season: 5.4 points/game. In the 2017 - 2018 season, 12 points per game.
By the way, Dennis Rodman was on the team for two reasons: reboundig and scaring the bejesus out of the opponents. He was not know for his scoring, but his career scoring average is still better -- by a long shot (no pun intended) -- than Kirk's current scoring percentage. Wow.
To the best of my knowledge Dennis Rodman was one of the few NBA players (the only one?) to distinguish himself as an American statesman, self-appointed US ambassador to North Korea.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
Updates
Later, 1:32 p.m. Central Time: wow, it never quits. I mentioned below that the Exxon investor day presentation has produced any number of articles. Now another one, this time by Bloomberg re-published in The Washington Post, an op-ed: Exxon's billions could spawn a Permian monster, but the writer of the op-ed questions whether Exxon can actually deliver. The same folks questioned whether the Bakken could ever deliver.
Exxon Mobil Corp. took four hours on Wednesday morning to tell investors: “Hold on a bit, we got this.”
But investors
aren’t in a patient mood with high-spending oil and gas companies, and
Exxon’s capital-expenditure budget — summary: not much change from $35
billion a year — drew the unsurprising response. Yet, looking beyond the
next couple of years, Exxon provided a lot for everyone, investors and
competitors, to chew on.
Exxon
is doing nothing less than an overhaul of the portfolio, as might be
expected after a few years of setbacks. When you’re this big — the size
of an OPEC producer — that costs money. Exxon projects it will generate
$190 billion of free cash flow through 2025, equivalent to almost 60
percent of its current market cap and implying $90 billion after
dividends potentially available for buybacks. However, eyeballing the
fuzzy bars on Exxon’s deck, that capacity doesn’t start coming through
in earnest until 2021.
The
fact that Chevron Corp., which held its own analyst day on Tuesday, is
already buying back stock and yielding more on near-term payouts is
where much of the interest in Exxon ends in the current environment. But
there are implications from Exxon’s numbers that shouldn’t be ignored.
Exxon’s
guidance implies cash from operations almost doubling by 2025 to $60
billion. Coincidental or not, that would match the peak reached in 2008.
Production is projected to be higher; the fuzzy bars suggest annual
increases of 3 to 4 percent through 2025. Even so, that level of cash
flow would be astounding at a $60 oil-price assumption compared with the
$100-a-barrel that prevailed in 2008 (don’t forget U.S. natural gas
averaged almost $9 per million BTU that year, too).
Original Post
This magic moment.
Tectonic shifts.
Investors need to watch for these tectonic shifts. Some come but once in a lifetime.
For energy investors, one tectonic shift to watch -- IMO 2020.
The big oil companies turned up late to the Permian party, but they are making up for lost time. ExxonMobil and Chevron, the two largest US oil groups, this week announced plans for spectacular production growth in the Permian Basin, the heartland of the US shale boom that stretches from west Texas into east New Mexico.
The Permian’s oil output has already shown prodigious growth in recent years: it has doubled since the summer of 2016, to 4m barrels a day, or roughly a third of total US daily production. The announcements from Exxon and Chevron were a signal that the boom would continue.
“It is quite a stunning development, in terms of the scale and the scope for acceleration,” said Lysle Brinker, an equity analyst at IHS Markit. “This Permian opportunity is something that these companies haven’t had for a very long time.”
From 2017 to 2019 -- look at the proved reserve growth. For XOM and CVX, almost doubling. This is not trivial, and the companies consider these "short-cycle, high-return" opportunities:
Oil and gas production costs on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) rose by 7 percent in 2018 compared to 2017, ending a streak of several years of continuous cost reductions, Norway’s state-owned oil and gas firm Petoro said in its annual report on Thursday.
Petoro, which manages the Norwegian government’s stakes in Norway’s oil and gas fields and is a partner in many licenses on the shelf, delivered a total of US$13.8 billion (120 billion Norwegian crowns) to the state in 2018, up by US$3.8 billion (33 billion crowns) compared to 2017, in one of the best years ever in Petoro’s history, the company said.
However, Petoro noted that the effect of the drastic cost cuts has started to level off.
“We are not seeing the results of further efficiency gains on our bottom line for 2018,” Petoro said.
The 7-percent rise in costs is worrying, the company noted, adding that “We are dependent on the efforts made in recent years having a lasting effect, so that we can reduce costs further through continued improvement in all parts of the value chain.”
New restrictions next year on the amount of sulfur in
global marine fuels should lift export demand for US oil shale
production, US independent refiner Valero said today.
Less complex
European refiners would seek out the much lighter, sweeter US
production to avoid higher sulfur residual sold today into the marine
bunker fuel market, Valero chief operating officer Lane Riggs said at
the Bank of America refining conference in New York.
Marpol treaty
signatories representing more than 96pc of global shipping have agreed
through the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to reduce sulfur
emissions beginning 1 January 2020 to 0.5pc sulfur fuel, down from
today's 3.5pc. The change, known as IMO 2020, slashes demand for
higher-sulfur, less-processed distillates sold today into the marine
fuel fleet.
US refiners expect the rules to boost distillate
demand beginning in the second half of this year and create competing
sour feedstocks to supply cokers and other complex equipment.
The
rule will also create competition for vacuum gas oil and other, lighter
and sweeter crude residuals as blendstocks for marine fuel, Riggs said.
Availability of such blends would vary widely by region. But the
earliest days of compliance will mean relying on more consistent and
readily available light sulfur diesel production, Riggs said.
Here You Come Again, Dolly Parton
Wow, one forgets how really distinctive / beautiful her voice was. Play it loud with Bose headphones (I no longer have Bose headphones -- I use the $10-throw-away Walmoart headphones because I keep losing them or breaking them carrying them in my backpack while biking).
Disclaimer: This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.
Futures: down slightly overnight but early this morning -- perhaps after the final reading of 4Q18 GDP and jobs data came out, turned slightly positive. Final reading for 4Q18 GDP: 1.9%.
NOG. Press release. Announces that total proved reserves increased 79% to 135.5 million boe with an associated PV-10 of $2.18 billion. Much of that came with the recent acquisition but prior to the acquisition, NOG says that total proved reserves increased 38% year-over-year with an associated PV-10 of $1.52 billion. The other data point:
proved undeveloped reserves included 97.9 net drilling locations, reflecting an average of less than 20 net organic wells per year over the five year drill schedule limitation, compared to the approximately 31 net organic wells that Northern added to production during 2018
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Southern Border
GOP policy: catch and release.
Democrats policy: open border.
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Anti-Semitism In The US House
April 19, 1775: the shot heard around the world.
December 1, 1955: Rosa Parks refused to give up her seat to a white man on a bus in Montgomery, AL.
March 6, 2019: US House fails to vote on anti-Semitism bill.
For Muslims, the "Pelosi failure" was as big a deal as the Rosa Parks decision back in 1955. A freshman minority representative to the US House did more for her cause in the first 63 days of the new Congress than any other congressman/woman. To the best of my knowledge, Pelosi has not yet accomplished anything in the House and I doubt anything will be accomplished in the first 100 days.
Confounding things, Occasional-Cortex is now the de facto speaker for the House. Pelosi remains the "Speaker of the House." Big difference.
One cannot sugar coat this: Pelosi took a huge loss.
NDIC: following the ruling about minerals under Lake Sakakawea yesterday, a reader writes that the commission will be holding a meeting today. Subject was not provided.
Wells coming off the confidential list -- Thursday, March 7, 2019: 26 wells for the month; 26 wells for the quarter
By mid-year, Enbridge plans to initiate an open season for long-term,
firm capacity on its existing 2.8-MMb/d Mainline crude system from
Western Canada to the U.S. Midwest starting in mid-2021. Securing a sure
way for Western Canadian heavy-crude producers to export crude from the
Alberta oil-sands region — combined with additional southbound pipeline
capacity from the Midwest to the Gulf Coast, would give Texas and
Louisiana refineries an alternative to using overseas imports and would
boost crude volumes being shipped from existing and planned export
terminals. Today, we conclude our series on the pipeline’s contracting
plans with a look at the impact of a straight-shot, joint-tariff pipe as
well as joint pipe-barge transportation solutions from the oil sands to
the Gulf Coast.
This is Part 3 in our series on Enbridge’s plan to replace its
soon-to-expire Competitive Tolling System (CTS) on its Mainline system
with a contract-carriage approach under which the bulk of the system’s
capacity will be dedicated to shippers who enter into contracts of up to
20 years. As we said in Part 1,
crude production in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) has
increased by two-thirds in the past decade — from ~3 MMb/d to ~5 MMb/d —
with virtually all incremental output available for export. Pipeline
capacity from the WCSB to the U.S. has been rising too — from ~2.7 MMb/d
nine years ago to ~4 MMb/d now, including about 2.8 MMb/d on the
Enbridge Mainline — but not quickly enough to keep up with production
gains. We also explained that the Mainline isn’t just the biggest crude
pipeline system out of the WCSB, it’s also the only major line whose
service is 100% “uncommitted” — that is, it has no capacity under
long-term contracts with shippers.
In Part 2,
we discussed Enbridge’s ongoing negotiation with shippers to replace
the CTS that has been in place since July 1, 2011, with a
priority-access plan that would kick in when the CTS expires on July 1,
2021. Under the prospective plan, details of which are still being
worked out, shippers would enter into contracts (again, with terms of up
to 20 years) for pipeline capacity between certain points on the
multi-pipe Mainline system. Up to 90% of the system’s long-term capacity
would be up for grabs; with the balance of the capacity (at least 10%,
and possibly more) reserved for spot and/or new shippers.
Today, we look at how Enbridge’s plan to shift to the
priority-access/contract-carriage allocation approach on its Mainline has the potential to open up seamless, highly
reliable pathways for Western Canadian crude to move from Alberta all
the way to the Gulf Coast, through joint tariffs on Enbridge-owned pipes
as well as via barge. Of course, hundreds of thousands of barrels of
WCSB-sourced crude already are making their way down to the Gulf every
day, mostly by flowing through the Cushing, OK, hub
(via TransCanada’s Keystone Pipeline or a combination of Enbridge’s
Mainline and its Spearhead and Flanagan South pipelines from Flanagan,
IL, to Cushing) and from Cushing to the Gulf Coast on either Enbridge
and Enterprise Products Partners’ Seaway system to Freeport, TX, or
TransCanada’s Marketlink system to Nederland, TX. Some Western Canadian
crude is also railed or barged south.
