Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- December 6, 2019

Politics

Amy Klobuchar: quietly gaining momentum (the link has been corrected) -- The Chicago Tribune, and Sophia saw a unicorn in the wild yesterday.

Baby names: By the way, for 2019, top baby girl names, #1, Sophia; #2, Olivia; #13, Charlotte. The Today Show list varies from what is being posted elsewhere. Elsewhere, Muhammed makes the top ten list for baby boy names; Muhammed doesn't show up on The Today Show list. Why does that not surprise me? Even reporting baby names has become "fake news." The Sun has the real list.

"You're too old to vote." -- Joe Biden; yesterday's town hall meeting; and that's no malarkey. His "deplorables" moment? Nope, media will ignore it. TDS.

Hillary: recalculating ... recalculating ... recalculating.

Bloomberg: $30 million later --- 6%; won't be on debate stage

Steyer: $50 million later -- 0%; will be on debate stage; spent $50 million in less than 3 months -- LA Times.
 

Market

Futures: another good day for the market? Indices trending green. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Jobs, link here, November jobs:

• nonfarm payrolls:
• prior: 128,000
• consensus forecast: 180,000
• actual: 266,000
• unemployment rate:
• prior: 3.6%
• consensus forecast: 3.6%
• actual:3.5%
• manufacturing payrolls:
• prior: -36,000
• consensus forecast: 15,000
• actual: 54,000

Factory orders rebound in October -- multiple sources. From US News -- recession is just around the corner --

New orders for U.S.-made goods rebounded in October after two straight monthly declines, lifted by rising demand for machinery and transportation equipment, but gains were likely to be limited amid persistently weak business confidence.

Factory goods orders increased 0.3% also as bookings for computers and electronic products rose, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. Data for September was revised down to show orders dropping 0.8% instead of falling 0.6% was previously reported. October's gain in factory orders was in line with economists' expectations.

Canadian banks: Canadian banks shed staff as troubles grow for indebted consumers .... well, what would one expect in a country closed for business? Over at Financial Times -- and if you can't trust the Financial Times, who can you trust? Behind a paywall, but I will post a bit from the story later.

Oil

Confused: there are two memes out there --

• oil is dead;
• long live oil

I don't get it (well, actually I do, but ...). The media narrative is that "oil is dead" and yet the data suggests otherwise. The mainstream business media seems to be all agog over Saudi Arabian oil but non-business media seem to suggest oil is dead, notwithstanding that global demand for crude oil is at all time highs. Whatever. And get this ... WTI is trending toward $60. If US oil can't make money on $55-oil, maybe they can on $60 oil ...

More proof of confused narrative? Reuters -- Norway ramps up western Europe's largest oilfield as oil's future questioned. Can you say, "Johan Sverdrup"? Obviously I can't. I've been calling it the "John Sverdrup" oil field all this time; even my link at the sidebar at the right is incorrect. I track the oil field here.

EVs: the fad seems to be waning. Interest in China dropped off a cliff after government ended subsidies; video  of long line of Teslas waiting to charge  at California charging station went viral this past week; companies no longer reporting EV sales on a monthly basis; at best we will get quarterly data; 

Headlines on same page over at Rigzone:

• shale frack spread rebound hopes fade -- do frack spreads matter?
  
• North American shale primed for growth despite possible oil price declines.

EPD: a blue chip among MLPs. MoneyShow. "Ad" disguised as a news story. Ignore.

Kinder Morgan: plans to spend $2.4 billion on expansion projects and joint ventures in 2020;

• headline says it all; not much more to the story
• backlog: $4.1 billion in capital projects 
• CAPEX: plans to spend upwards of $3 billion each year on organic investment opportunities
• previously posted: will sell its Canadian subsidiary to Calgary-based Pembina Pipeline Corp for $2.5 billion by 1H20
• completed the $3.46 billion sale of the Trans Mountain assets and expansion project to the Canadian government in 3Q18

XOM: days as dog of the Dow are over -- Bank of America; some analysts think XOM could do well in 2020 based on Permian projections. Link.

Shale investing: a lot of misstatements (outright lies?) but the article does provide a nice update for those looking to invest in shale operators.

These five companies had breakeven prices lower than $26 per barrel at lateral lengths of 7,560 to 10,500:

• EOG Resources
• Pioneer Natural Resources
• Concho Resources
• Exxon Mobil unit XTO Energy
• Chevron

This writer doesn't understand Saudi Arabia or Saudi Aramco or the IPO either.

What Condition Is My Condition In?

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The Book Page

From The Vikings: A History, Robert Ferguson, c. 2009.

I checked this book out at the library two weeks ago; finished it; loved it. Returned the book to the library and then bought my own copy through Amazon. Re-reading it again; reading it slowly.

We all know the story of Charlemagne, 8th century Europe. For me, I was never aware what drove his desire to expand his empire. Either that was not taught when I was studying world history in middle school (?) or I completely missed it.

It was all about religion, Christianity to be specific:

• converting the barbarians/heathens of the north and northeast to Christianity; and,
• pushing the Muslims out of Europe, particularly the Iberian peninsula

I always thought his expansion was secular in nature. Not at all.

I was curious which Roman Catholic "sect" was most prominent at this time. I knew all of this at one time, but had forgotten. During my USAF tour of England some years ago, mostly Yorkshire, I visited any number of monastery ruins, got the t-shirt and the books, and learned as much as I could, much of which I have now forgotten. A quick google/wiki search suggests it was the Benedictines during the Charlemagne/Frankish rule.

By the way, that's where I first "met" St Bede. His works provided me a number of passwords at the time -- which I no longer use.