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Saturday, November 16, 2019

Not A Bit Surprised -- November 16, 2019

From Geoff Simon on Friday, November 15, 2019:
The preliminary oil production numbers for the month of September will not be down as much as earlier predictions. The Director's Cut is scheduled to be released November 19, 2019.
Lynn Helms, director of the Department of Mineral Resources, told a legislative committee this week that the wet weather in September did cause a drop in production, but it will only be about two percent lower than the August numbers.

Helms said production technology continues to improve, especially in the Bakken which he said is the "absolute best place in the country to put a drilling rig."
He said the Bakken continues to out-perform the Permian, the Eagle Ford, the Niobrara and other shale plays around the United States. And he said the improvements are happening quickly.

"A new well coming on in 2019 will produce 50-to-70 percent more in the first 18 months than a well that was completed just a year ago using the new technologies," Helms said.

The downside to the story is that associated natural gas production continues to outpace oil production, and the absence of adequate infrastructure to handle it has constrained industry growth.

"You can see the gas curve is much steeper than the oil curve and that's what really is our struggle as we go forward over the next five to 10 years is, the oil curve is where the money's at, the gas curve has got to be managed."

2 comments:

  1. 2% is not tiny, for a single month. It's 30,000 bopd.

    Here's to hoping OCT has a big reversal.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I can only imagine how "bad" it would be if "flaring" goals were mandates, not simply goals.

      0.98 x 1.4 million bopd = 1.372 million bbls.

      Tiny, not tiny, it's all in the eyes of the beholder. In April, 2016, at much smaller production numbers, production dropped a whopping 6%.

      It would be interesting to know how "bad" Lynn Helms thought it might be. That's the real story. Personally, I think it's credit to the roughnecks and truckers to have done as well as they did considering this was the wettest September in history, according to some. It should also be noted that there must have been good coordination between NDDOT, regulators, and operators to keep the roads open to the extent that they did. Also, no adverse events (injuries, fatalities, blowouts, fires, spills, derailments) worthy of media attention were reported during a very challenging September.

      Most of all, I'm impressed with the transparency of the NDIC.

      Delete

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