Just How Serious Are Things In Saudi Arabia? -- November 7, 2019

November 9, 2019: Breaking news: the "2% IPO" will be lucky to get to 0.5%.

• Link here. Archived.

Remember? Playing with fire -- November 30, 2014, The [London] Telegraph.

Reminder: Saudi will take all steps necessary to save their country -- August 7, 2019.

Proof? In latest Saudi shakedown, Aramco "taps" Prince Al-Waleed for IPO money -- zerohedge. November 7, 2019. 

Back in November 2017, a number of prominent Saudi Arabian princes, government ministers, and business people were arrested in Saudi Arabia a few weeks after the creation of an anti-corruption committee led by Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman. Among them was one of Saudi Arabia's wealthiest men, billionaire Prince Al-Waleed bin Talal, who along with the other arrested individuals was confined in the Riyadh Ritz-Carlton and was only released months later after he pledged an unknown amount of money to the Saudi treasury.

While the Crown Prince dubbed the arrests an anti-corruption exercise, it was plain that Saudi Arabia, then facing a gaping budget deficit had engaged in nothing short of a massive extortive shakedown. 

Two years later Saudi Arabia is engaging in a similar shakedown, only this time instead of very broad "uses of funds", it hopes to narrow down the extorted money solely for one purpose - to get more "willing" Aramco anchor investors.

And just like in 2017, Prince Al-Waleed - one of the largest investors in Twitter - is once again in the crosshairs.

As Bloomberg reports, one day after China tentatively agreed to invest $5 to $10 billion in the Aramco mega IPO which has so far found precisely zero anchor investors, Saudi Arabia was "negotiating commitments" from its wealthiest citizens to buy stock in the Aramco initial public offering. Translation: MbS gave his oligarchs a choice - invest in Aramco, or spend some more time in the Riyadh Ritz Carlton. Among those Riyadh has reportedly approached include the Olayan family and Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal to low-profile tycoons in the oil producer’s backyard.

Following polite but stern and "convincing" discussions with MbS and his goon squad, the billionaire Olayans, who own a major stake in Credit Suisse, are said to be considering buying several hundred million U.S. dollars worth of Aramco shares.

Prince Alwaleed - who knows too well what happens if he disagrees with the Crown Prince - has also "held talks" to commit a significant amount to the IPO.

Re-posting. I think this is a huge story:

Wow, wow, wow -- Saudi Aramco delays payment on the Sabic deal by four years ....  huge story ... buried, but a huge story ... Bloomberg --- November 4, 2019 ... 

Saudi Aramco will delay fully paying for the acquisition of a 70 percent stake in petrochemicals company Sabic by four years until September 2025 under terms of a new deal agreed on last month.

Aramco will also only pay the kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund about a third of the $69.1 billion price tag in cash, down from half previously, the oil firm said in its intention-to-float announcement.

Re-posting from the other day:

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia foreign exchange reserves, most recent data, just released, September, 2019, link here. Corroborates IMF data suggesting that $61-oil is inadequate for Saudi Arabia.

Ten-year history:

Re-posting:

Break-even costs in the Bakken.

Saudi Arabia? $85, per IMF, via twitter: