Idle Rambling -- Opportunity For Investors With 20-Year Horizon -- November 12, 2019

I don't know if folks have been paying attention, connecting the dots. First, the linked article below. Then:

• Saudi Arabia cannot survive on $60 Brent or $55 WTI; 2015 some analysts suggest the kingdom could be broke within two years if price did not move up
• Saudi Aramco just launched an IPO; needs better return to attract investors
• significantly declining rig counts worldwide
• huge migration by the majors from large existing fields; turning these fields over to smaller operators
• IMO 2020
• insatiable energy demand in the out-years; e.g., India's $100 billion energy boom;
• WTI trading above $57 this morning

Link here:

This year will mark the nadir of oil demand growth over the next five years, according to a new report from Fitch Solutions Macro Research (FSMR).

“We forecast demand to grow by around 0.5 percent this year, rising to 0.8 percent in 2020. While this puts our growth forecasts significantly below consensus, it is consistent with the excessive weakness we have seen in monthly data in the year to date,” FSMR analysts stated in the report.

“Demand has faced a perfect storm of global macro headwinds, fueling broad-based weakness from the top down, and a host of idiosyncratic barriers to growth, dragging on demand at the individual market level,” the analysts added.

In the note, FSMR analysts noted that developing markets in Asia had been an “outlier” and continued to post strong demand growth this year.

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And then there is this, the EV chart of the day: