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Wednesday, October 23, 2019

Unexpected Drop In US Crude Oil Inventories -- October 23, 2019

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Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.  However, having said that, if I had a sudden influx of cash, I know exactly where I would invest it. As it is, I'm fully invested but there are some incredible opportunities out there right now. I don't know what Warren Buffett is doing (the SEC allows him to delay his trading) but if he doesn't take advantage of these opportunities I'll be very, very disappointed. No, I'm not talking about the Saudi IPO. I'm talking about a Permian operator who recently added significantly more Permian acreage; is trading at a huge discount (based on P/E average for the industry; and, pays a very nice dividend which is probably "safe."


Later, 1:17 p.m. CT: this really is quite incredible. Oilprice.com has still not reported the drop in US crude oil inventories and the subsequent jump in price in WTI. With huge builds, they practically report the story before the official data is released. It must be taking a little long than usual to figure out how to spin this story. By the way, someone noted that the huge build last week was due to a mismatch in dates before crude oil inventory data being reported and tanker traffic being reported. Very, very prescient. Very, very clever.

Original Post 

Link here.
  • US weekly crude oil inventory change: decreased by 1.7 million bbls -- wow -- that was not expected!
  • US weekly crude oil inventories: 433.2 million bbls; at the five-year average;
  • refinery operating capacity, US: operating at 85.2% of operable capacity; about what we've been seeing for the past month; but well on the low side;
  • WTI immediately after the report was released: up almost 2%; up almost a buck; now trading at $54.45; oilprice, always quick to headline "huge-build" stories hasn't reported this yet; are you kidding? 
  • gasoline and distillate fuel supplied unremarkable but jet fuel product supplied was up almost 6% compared with the same four-week period last year -- must be driving faux environmentalists nuts; must be driving the elitists nuts who think they should be the only ones allowed to fly; 
Re-balancing (to keep spreadsheet manageable, lines 8 - 28, inclusive, are hidden):
Week
Week Ending
Change
Million Bbls Storage
Week 0
November 21, 2018
4.9
446.9
Week 1
November 28, 2018
3.6
450.5
Week 2
December 6, 2018
-7.3
443.2
Week 3
December 12, 2018
-1.2
442.0
Week 4
December 19, 2018
-0.5
441.5
Week 5
December 28, 2018
0.0
441.4
Week 6
January 4, 2019
0.0
441.4
Week 7
January 9, 2019
-1.7
439.7
Week 29
June 12, 2019
2.2
485.5
Week 30
June 19, 2019
-3.1
482.4
Week 31
June 26, 2019
-12.8
469.6
Week 32
July 3, 2019
-1.1
468.5
Week 33
July 10, 2019
-9.5
459.0
Week 34
July 17, 2019
-3.1
455.9
Week 35
July 24, 2019
-10.8
445.1
Week 36
July 31, 2019
-8.5
436.5
Week 37
August 7, 2019
2.4
438.9
Week 38
August 14, 2019
1.6
440.5
Week 29
August 21, 2019
-2.7
437.8
Week 30
August 28, 2019
-10.0
427.8
Week 31
September 5, 2019
-4.8
423.0
Week 32
September 11, 2019
-6.9
416.1
Week 33
September 18, 2019
1.1
417.1
Week 34
September 26, 2019
2.4
419.5
Week 35
October 2, 2019
3.1
422.6
Week 36
October 9, 2019
2.9
425.6
Week 37
October 17, 2019
9.3
434.9
Week 38
October 23, 2019
-1.7
433.2

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