US Crude Oil Inventories Surge; Notes From All Over, Part 3 -- October 30, 2019

EIA: weekly crude oil inventories (remember, API: small build, less than a million bbls, reported yesterday):

• weekly change:  increased by a whopping 5.7 million bbls
• WTI: drops a percent; now under $55
• OPEC basket: drops about a percent; $61 and change
• break-even for Saudi Arabia: $86.50 (link here; IMF)
• US crude oil inventories: at 438.9 million bbls, now 1% above the five-year average
• analysts: probably just a timing thing, a mismatch with export dates; not to worry
• refiners: operating at 87.7% capacity; perhaps a bit better than last few weeks but incredibly low
• MPC: largest US refiner -- down 2.3%; down $1.56
• jet fuel? elites flying more than ever -- atmospheric CO2? what atmospheric CO2? -- jet fuel supplied was up 9.6% compared with same four-week period last year 
• sadly, the grounding of 737 MAX isn't helping; much more fuel efficient; and so it goes

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Re-Balancing

Week	Week Ending	Change	Million Bbls Storage
Week 0	November 21, 2018	4.9	446.9
Week 1	November 28, 2018	3.6	450.5
Week 2	December 6, 2018	-7.3	443.2
Week 3	December 12, 2018	-1.2	442.0
Week 4	December 19, 2018	-0.5	441.5
Week 5	December 28, 2018	0.0	441.4
Week 6	January 4, 2019	0.0	441.4
Week 7	January 9, 2019	-1.7	439.7
Week 29	June 12, 2019	2.2	485.5
Week 38	August 14, 2019	1.6	440.5
Week 39	August 21, 2019	-2.7	437.8
Week 40	August 28, 2019	-10.0	427.8
Week 41	September 5, 2019	-4.8	423.0
Week 42	September 11, 2019	-6.9	416.1
Week 43	September 18, 2019	1.1	417.1
Week 44	September 26, 2019	2.4	419.5
Week 45	October 2, 2019	3.1	422.6
Week 46	October 9, 2019	2.9	425.6
Week 47	October 17, 2019	9.3	434.9
Week 48	October 23, 2019	-1.7	433.2
Week 49	October 30, 2019	5.7	438.9

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Miscellaneous

Jeffrey: homicide? Well, duh.

FDR: considered one of the best presidents ever; under whose watch did "Pearl Harbor" occur? Remained neutral until that attack. Neutral? With all that was going on in Europe? Just thinking out loud. 

Trump: gets almost the entire Mideast to join the US in sanctions on Iran. Timing is interesting. Baghdadi's dead. Haven't heard much out of North Korea lately. Just thinking out loud.

The market:

• Dow: absolutely flat ... 0.0000
• YUM: not so yummy. Drops 10%
• PCG: investors lose $4.1 billion in four trading days; CalPERS -- huge loses; previously posted;