Notes From All Over, All Politics -- California -- October 28, 2019

Link here.

From wiki:

Under the current Democratic Party selection rules, adopted in 2006, pledged delegates are selected under proportional representation, which requires a candidate have a minimum of 15% of a state's popular vote to receive delegates.

I have trouble believing each of the three front-runners -- Biden, Pocahontas, Sanders -- won't each get at least 15%. Having said that, I can imagine Biden imploding in California, with Sanders and Pocahontas stealing enough votes from Biden to put him below the 15% threshold.

But if each of the three front runners get a 35 - 35 - 30 split, then we go into the DNC convention with no one having 50% plus one delegate. In the 2016 primary, Hillary really did not have a credible opponent until late in the process when Bernie Sanders finally made a presence. But Hillary also owned the "super-delegates." That is different this time around.

None of the three front-runners have the commanding lead that Hillary had, and the super-delegates cannot vote in the first round if the front runner doesn't already have 50% delegates +1. Super-delegates can only begin voting in the second round if no one candidate has 50% + 1 delegate coming into the convention.

There are many reports that Buttigieg is surging. But to get even one delegate in any state he needs to poll at least 15%. He is nowhere close to that yet.

I have trouble seeing the top three garnering less than seventy percent combined. That leaves 30% -- Harris, Buttigieg, and Yang would share that 30%, none of them reaching the 15% threshold.