Huge Crude Oil Build -- EIA -- Confirms API Data -- October 17, 2019

Updates

October 18, 2019: so that readers (and I) don't have to keep toggling between comments and the blog, I will bring the most recent comment up here to the main body of the blog -- from a reader:

While you've got that link to the crude oil balance sheet up there from another reader, take a look at line 13 under crude oil supply. [The report] shows 933,000 barrels per day of oil unaccounted for, that is, production + imports - exports was 933,000 barrels per day short of what refineries used + what was added to storage. [That figure has] been getting worse over the year, as the totals from last year show.. A million barrels per day unaccounted for is more than a rounding error.

Line 12 [of the linked report below] shows that part of this week's inventory build came out of the SPR...was that an overreaction to the Saudi attack? 

Refinery utilization was the lowest since Harvey knocked out 12% of capacity, and before that the lowest since October 2011, which could have also been a hurricane week for all I know. I haven't seen an explanation.

Distillates supplies 11% below normal going into winter is reminiscent of last year's natural gas shortage. But that can easily be fixed by increasing distillates imports, which we did last winter. We export distillates through the summer, and then have to import come winter; I imagine someone must be making money off that trade.

And more: crude oil inventories are more than 31.1% higher than the prior 5 year (2009 - 2013) average of crude oil stocks as of the second weekend of October.


Later, 2:23 p.m. CT, from a reader:

US had second week of negative net imports of crude and products, i.e.,  net exports. See bottom of page 1: http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/overview.pdf.  Or here: https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1184851934924234759.

Original Post

Link here.

• EIA crude oil inventories, week over week: increased by 9.3 million bbls
• EIA crude oil inventories stand at 434.9 million bbls; about 2% above the 5-year average
• refiners at 83.1% operating capacity; historically low end -- and even lower than last week; this is quite remarkable;
• imports up a bit last week, but for the past four weeks, crude oil imports are almost 20% less than same period last year;

How some reported it:

Re-balancing (note: to keep spreadsheet from getting too long, some rows are hidden);

Week	Week Ending	Change	Million Bbls Storage
Week 0	November 21, 2018	4.9	446.9
Week 1	November 28, 2018	3.6	450.5
Week 2	December 6, 2018	-7.3	443.2
Week 3	December 12, 2018	-1.2	442.0
Week 4	December 19, 2018	-0.5	441.5
Week 5	December 28, 2018	0.0	441.4
Week 6	January 4, 2019	0.0	441.4
Week 7	January 9, 2019	-1.7	439.7
Week 21	April 17, 2019	-1.4	455.2
Week 22	April 24, 2019	5.5	460.1
Week 23	May 1, 2019	9.9	470.6
Week 24	May 8, 2019	-4.0	466.6
Week 25	May 15, 2019	5.4	472.0
Week 26	May 22, 2019	4.7	476.8
Week 27	May 30, 2019	-0.3	476.5
Week 28	June 5, 2019	6.8	483.3
Week 29	June 12, 2019	2.2	485.5
Week 30	June 19, 2019	-3.1	482.4
Week 31	June 26, 2019	-12.8	469.6
Week 32	July 3, 2019	-1.1	468.5
Week 33	July 10, 2019	-9.5	459.0
Week 34	July 17, 2019	-3.1	455.9
Week 35	July 24, 2019	-10.8	445.1
Week 36	July 31, 2019	-8.5	436.5
Week 37	August 7, 2019	2.4	438.9
Week 38	August 14, 2019	1.6	440.5
Week 29	August 21, 2019	-2.7	437.8
Week 30	August 28, 2019	-10.0	427.8
Week 31	September 5, 2019	-4.8	423.0
Week 32	September 11, 2019	-6.9	416.1
Week 33	September 18, 2019	1.1	417.1
Week 34	September 26, 2019	2.4	419.5
Week 35	October 2, 2019	3.1	422.6
Week 36	October 9, 2019	2.9	425.6
Week 37	October 17, 2019	9.3	434.9