Worse Than First Reported? -- September 15, 2019

Updates

September 29, 2019: production "capacity" may be back to normal, but "refining certainly isn't.

September 29, 2019: even the experts got it wrong.

September 26, 2019: the reason Saudi Arabia is switching from sweet oil to sour oil to meet export contracts.

September 25, 2019: Saudi Arabian production said to be "back to normal." 

September 23, 2019: back to normal in four days; maybe one week; maybe by the end of the month (September, 2019); maybe in eight weeks.

September 19, 2019: dueling stories. 

September 19, 2019: peak oil for Saudi Arabia?

Later, 6:00 p.m. CT: WTI jumps 10 - 12%; trading near $61.

Later, 3:30 p.m. CT: oil price has still not reported anything since it's original short blurb on the attack yesterday.

Later, 3:27 p.m. CT: in all the analyses so far, no one has mentioned that the Kingdom has a brand-new Energy Minister -- was it less than a week ago that a new "Alfalfa" was named Minister of Energy. Welcome to the Mideast. How "Alfalfa" (officially, ABS) responds could determine his long-term status in that role. 

Later, 3:26 p.m. CT: CNN update here. It's too bad CNN lost its way. Their reporting can be good, but CNN has lost all credibility. 

Later, 3:16 p.m. CT: at the moment, this is the best update so far, "the Kingdom is rocked." The AP is still calling it a "drone" attack when others suggest Iran used cruise missiles. In the end, it may not really matter what was used, but "words" matter and "cruise missiles" sound a lot more ominous than "drones."

Without question, heir-to-the throne Prince MBS needs to determine if this incredibly well-planned attack using very, very sophisticated weapons was:

• simply orchestrated by a rogue group of terrorists; or,
• state-sponsored.

If it's the former, things will quiet down.

If it's the latter, the heir to the throne will be seen as very, very weak if he doesn't take commensurate retaliation.

This was a pretty big deal. To just "let it go" seems unlikely.

Original Post

Original Post: 10:18 a.m. CT

September 15, 2019 

Say what you want, but this sounds worse than earlier reports.

First report: massive damage at Abqaiq, Saturday.

Next report, an hour later: will be back to normal by Monday, only 48 hours after attack. Tweeted by Baghdad Bob.

Most recent report, 5:00 p.m. Saturday evening, September 14, 2019: two facilities shut-in; deliveries will come for "Saudi's strategic reserve."

Worse than thought?

Biggest winner? Iraq.

Next? Maybe US shale.

This is bizarre. Oilprice not even "headlining" about it. No updates since a small story yesterday.

Financial Times, link here: Saudi Arabia faces weeks without full oil production after attack.

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Intel

Missiles, not drones.

Cruise missiles.

From Iran.