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Tuesday, September 3, 2019

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- September 3, 2019

A continuation of "those not paying attention are missing an incredible investing opportunity."

Stock on thin ice -- zerohedge. Have stocks successfully averted a crisis

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.


Heard on the Street, WSJ: the American consumer keeps beating expectations
What is different this time round is that three years of rising employment and pay seem to have imbued household budgets with a higher degree of resilience. Last week, government statisticians revised down U.S. economic growth for the second quarter to 2%, due to the impact of weaker-than-expected exports and inventory investment, but recorded a strong pickup in company earnings and consumer spending—now upgraded to its strongest reading since 2014. Official figures also showed a sharp rise in U.S. consumer spending in July.

This has benefited much of the consumer-led economy. During the first half, earnings declined in S&P 500 sectors like industrials, materials and energy, but this was offset by profit growth in consumer industries, health care and even banks. Manufacturing is, after all, only 10% of the U.S. economy.

As a result, S&P 500 earnings per share are up almost 20% relative to the second quarter of 2018. In more export-dependent Europe, Euro Stoxx 50 earnings are only down slightly over the same period. Profits were much weaker in the 2015-2016 deceleration, particularly in Europe, where domestically focused industries are also holding up much better.
EVs: remember the hand-wringing some years ago about shortage of lithium? Now, from Bloomberg, the lithium industry buildup is outracing the EV boom. More than enough lithium.  Six new mines in Australia; EV sales slow in China.

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