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Monday, September 16, 2019

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- September 16, 2019

Tea leaves: a quick scan of twitter this morning suggests --
  • it will take longer than first forecast to "get back to normal"
  • Saudi has resumed "normal" loading operations
  • full loading coming from strategic storage facilities
  • Saudi has told foreign customers to expect full supplies
  • however, Saudi said to be reducing allocations to own refineries, local economy
  • Saudi officials consider delaying Aramco IPO pending full evaluation
  • no one has yet suggested that Saudi Arabia paid Iran to hit their storage facilities to raise the price of oil -- this would be the "Hillary/Comey/Clapper" scenario
  • most interesting note: Saudi Arabia said to be concerned that other producers will over-react to the situation --- in other words, Saudi Arabia is worried about losing market share as customers find other (more reliable) sources
Market: I'm not even sure if it's worth posting share prices for oil companies. A quick look early this morning confirms what we all expected. Shares of publicly traded oil companies jumping from 2% to 15%. Maybe not as high as 15% but some approaching double-digit percentage increases.

Interestingly enough, most (all?) are still below their 52-week highs. There are headlines suggesting that prices in the oil sector still do not reflect reality. Which, of course, does not make sense if one accepts market efficiency and the philosophy of free markets.

So, get it while you can.

Get It While You Can, Janis Joplin

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, relationship, or career decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Opinion: it's hard to believe this article (an op-ed piece) made the MarketWatch page -- "The truth about the stock market that "Never Trumpers" cannot accept. Link here. My hunch is that Brett Arends will never work for CNN Business News.
Memo to Donald Trump’s critics: Just 3,000 more points to go!
That’s how much further the Dow Jones Industrial Average has to fall before you can start saying Trump’s been bad for the stock market.
Yes, the Dow has plunged more than 1,000 points in a couple of weeks, thanks to the president’s tariff spat with China. Yes, it went through a wild swing Wednesday, plummeting more than 500 points at the open before rallying.
But: Perspective, folks.
The Dow was just 18,000 when Trump was elected nearly three years ago. Right now, even following Monday’s big drop, it’s above 26,000.
Futures: Dow down 94 points, hardly remarkable. It's almost as if nothing happened over the weekend. If the Dow finishes in the green today, even by a little bit, it will speak volumes about the health of the US economy.

If Saudi does not retaliate militarily this is why: if ten bottle rockets can knock out 50% of Saudi's crude oil exports, can one imagine how much would be knocked out in the first 24 hours of all-out war?  Yeah, that much.

Non-oil proxy today: UNP. UNP was up at the close on Friday; today, futures, UNP is absolutely flat.