Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- September 25, 2019

Updates

Later, 9:58 a.m. CT: so, "Big_Orrin" suggested that US crude oil inventories would increase by 6.8 million bbls -- and apparently most of that along the coast because Cushing was forecast to only increase by 1.1 million bbls. Let's see what the EIA numbers were:

• EIA US crude oil inventory, week-over-week: an increase of 2.4 million bbls; Big_Orrin was off by a country mile, or as much as a long-reach horizontal lateral
• EIA US crude oil inventory: 419.5 million bbls; supposedly at the 5-year average
• but look at this: refineries operating at 89.8% capacity (a rainstorm called Imelda shut down the Exxon refinery in Houston)
• even so, gasoline production increased last week, who wudda thought?
• distillate fuel production decreased last week but not by much

WTI: after the EIA report -- down a whopping $1.26; down 2.25; and now trading at $56.03. Even worse for Saudi Arabia, who is not yet back in business, is selling what they have with a Brent price of barely breaking $60.

Original Post

My #1 hope today: the rooster goes home without meeting with Trump. There's no reason for Trump to meet with guy -- sets pre-conditions to meet with Trump -- LOL.

EIA weekly petroleum report due out later this morning. Link here. Forecast:

Quick: who was Bill Clinton's VP? No, it was not Hillary.

Existentialism: Ice Brent crude oil futures fell to $62.20/bbl (8:30 GMT), their lowest levels since before the 14 September 2019 attacks on key oil facilities in Saudi Arabia ....

• Saudi cannot survive on $60-Brent, no matter what they say
• on top of that, they don't have as much oil to sell, and won't, for several weeks
• US shale: the swing producer

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What are futures doing? Looks like a slightly negative opening for the Dow.. Stockpicker's market. WTI is down another $1.02/bbl, down almost 2%, trading at $56.27 (WTI). Fascinating.

Cartoonist's dream:

Beto: I keep waiting for a post-third Democrat debate Texas poll, but so far no new poll. Themost recent Texas poll was September 9, 2019, a few days before the September 12, 2019, "hell, yes, we're going to take your guns away," moment. Vanity Fair has a nice piece on this. It begins:

Then an NBC/WSJ poll came out, revealing a post-debate crash: O’Rourke had officially joined the 1 percenter’s club, behind even oddball candidate Andrew Yang. 

I did not know that the millennials considered Andrew Yang an "oddball candidate."  I knew the rest of us did (consider him an oddball).