Trouble In Paradise? Why Does This Not Surprise Me? J. D. Power On EVs -- August 2, 2019

Link at J.D. Power, a press release. Dateline: COSTA MESA, Calif.: 30 July 2019 —

"Out of the box, these scores are not encouraging."

The lede:

Consumers lack confidence in the future of self-driving vehicles and their outlook isn’t much better about the influx of battery-electric vehicles that manufacturers are spending billions of dollars to bring to market in the next several years, according to the inaugural J.D. Power 2019 Mobility Confidence Index Study fueled by SurveyMonkey Audience, SM released today.

The Mobility Confidence Index is 36 (on a 100-point scale) for self-driving vehicles and 55 for battery-electric vehicles.

Then this:

“As automakers head down the developmental road to self-driving vehicles and greater electrification, it’s important to know if consumers are on the same road—and headed in the same direction. That doesn’t seem to be the case right now. Manufacturers need to learn where consumers are in terms of comprehending and accepting new mobility technologies—and what needs to be done.”

Survey:

• 5,749 consumers polled about self-driving vehicles
• 5,270 consumers  polled about EVs
• sentiment definitions: low (0 - 40); neutral (41 - 60) and positive (61 - 100)
• consumers have LOW confidence about the future of self-driving vehicles
• 66% of respondents admit to having little knowledge about self-driving vehicles
• consumers have a neutral level of confidence about the future of EVs
• both consumers and industry experts recognize it will be well over a decade before EVs equal gas-powered vehicles in sales volumes
• experts also predict it will be at least five years until EV market share reaches 10%
• main deterrents to purchase: affordability and trust
• secondary deterrents: battery cost, range, and supply capacity
• tax subsidies and/or credits appear to be "almost" crucial 

Comments:

• this seems to be about what I expected
• some will take this out of context saying that J.D. Power said that within a decade sales of EVs will equal those of ICEs; J. D. Power survey did not show that: it showed that it would be well over a decade when that might happen
• it appears US consumers more willing to accept EVs than self-driving vehicles
• actually, I'm not sure why the two -- EVs and self-driving vehicles -- are always "tied together"

Much more at the link.

I think there's enough "stuff" in this survey to satisfy both those inappropriately exuberant about EVs and those who think the whole "thing" is ludicrous, to use a word Musk Melon likes to use.

A Parthian shot:

From batteries in cheap Chinese toys to watches to computers to drones, batteries are a nuisance. A huge nuisance. They always need replacing (at great cost -- in many cases the batteries cost more than the toy they power) and they typically fail without warning. It's a hassle to find replacement batteries for a flashlight that goes dead at 3:30 in the morning during a power failure. Humans, by nature, don't like batteries. Even an Aboriginal Australian will opt for a home wired to the grid than accept a battery to power her home. Now combine that distaste for batteries and try to sell folks a $100,000 luxury battery golf cart, or a $35,000 sedan. That distaste for batteries will never go away. On top of that, there is nothing to suggest there will ever be a technological breakthrough for a really better battery. On the other hand, batteries are going to get more expensive -- for vehicles, much more expensive -- and the disposal issue will become an even bigger issue.