First dot: the CLR 60-well Long Creek project. A Harold Hamm project.
Second dot: the failed attempt for a $4 billion petrochemical plant. Harold Hamm involved. Link here.
Third: state concerned about flaring. And it's only going to get worse. Link here. Archived.
Fourth dot? Yes there is a fourth dot, but I will leave that for a later date. Hint: there are actually two dots connect to this fourth dot and both involve Harold Hamm.
Fifth dot? Financial. Money is cheap. 30-year Treasury at 2%. That is an all-time low. Link here if you want to read a scary note. The 10-year at 1.7%. In addition, the Fed has rules it can use to force banks to lend money if there's a downturn. Hasn't been used before, but now being talked about.
Feds forcing lending? Probably all kinds of caveats like at 10% etc but interesting since the sheep migrate into caves during downturns. No leaders.
ReplyDeleteYou are correct: beware the fine print.
DeleteInteresting... I know that up where I come from, (up north)Harold Hamm had the 'Highland' gas plant. (North, and a little east of McGregor, ND)Yes, it had a different name, but it was owned by Harold Hamm. I believe its been sold to someone else now, but it was an attempt to process all of the gas coming out of these 'nail down' wells... (Wells drilled on a 1280 to hold the lease in place) As more wells are drilled, and more gas produced, there will be more of these, but this is one of the first ones...
ReplyDeleteYes, the dots start to connect.
DeleteYou been reading Qanon? ;-)
ReplyDeleteCome on. Give it to us straight.
Qanon? I had to look that up on wiki. I was aware of it. Looked at it a long, long time ago. I think I first saw it as "Q." I doubt "Q" would have any interest in the Bakken, but then again, I haven't looked at Qanon in a long time. I wish it were not "capitalized." It would be a great scrabble word.
Deleteqat, qaid, suq
ReplyDeleteMuch appreciated ... for scrabble....
Deletehttps://www.kindermorgan.com/pages/business/gas_pipelines/north_midstream/dakota_montana_crude.aspx
ReplyDeleteHarold hamm developed a crude gathering system and sold it to kinder morgan. Looks like they still have it. Hiland crude llc
Thank you. I certainly can't keep track of everything Harold Hamm has been involved with but connecting these dots is not a trivial exercise.
DeleteAn alternate view of stock market behavior. Offshore money is fleeing from countries in or nearing recession. Capital flight from China, Britain, Germany, Italy among others. For the risk averse the safe play is treasury bonds. Absorbing capital into treasury bond market which forces the yields down. The inverted yield curve in our 2s10s not due to recession dynamics but capital flight into the safety of T Bills.
ReplyDeleteGermany and others facing a mfg slowdown affected by Chinese dumping since the Trump Lighthizer duo is stopping that here. China needs to keep their restless population from revolution and placate them with jobs which needs to find dumping targets.
Make sense?
It does make sense. It's been bugging me all day -- seriously -- trying to figure out why Treasury yields are so low. At some point -- and it's been a year or so -- Europeans are getting tired of negative rates. And then the flight to safety -- as you've noted.
DeleteIt makes a lot of sense.
And, of course, the very, very wealthy in the US moving in Treasury bonds for the very same reason that "offshore" money is moving to US Treasuries.
The Trump crew is magnificent. Pro business and amped up the supply side which really drives the economy. Our economy is the strongest. Others in Europe are still pumping liquidity by their central banks. They have gone down the negative interest rate rabbit hole. We may be the last man standing.
ReplyDeleteChina getting close to their Lehmann moment. Bank failures and inter bank lending like repo market starting to go open loop.
Wow, exactly what I was thinking, but was afraid I was too far in front of my headlights. Some months ago, I posted on the blog that it was just a matter of time before we started seeing Chinese bankers jumping out of their skyscraper banks.
DeleteI haven't been following the Hong Kong (airport) story but superficially it certainly "feels" like the Hong Kong Chinese have reached the end of their rope. Again, this is far beyond my "expertise."