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Saturday, August 10, 2019

CLR Presentation -- 2Q19 -- Investor Update

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CLR website, presentations link here.

2Q19 earnings transcript: SeekingAlpha. Archived.

August, 2019, investor update, dated August 5, 2019.

Focus: shareholder returns.

Value generators, ongoing --
  • sustainable, cash flow positive growth: up to $5 billion FCF next five years
  • net debt reduction: $1.3 billion net debt reduction over the last three years; targeting $4.2 billion long term
Value generators, added  --
  • $1 billion share repurchase program
  • $92 million repurchased as of August 2, 2019
  • quarterly dividend begins August, 2019: annualized: $75 million / year
  • sale of water facility, $85 million, will more than pay for first year of dividends
Low cost leader among peers --
  • low cost per boe
    • LOE per BOE: less than $4.00 (about $3.75) -- better than previous guidance
    • top-tier G&A: at less than $2/boe ($1.57 -- better than previous guidance), about 6% G&A/EBITA
Guidance --
  • production: up slightly
  • LOE per BOE: down slightly
  • G&A per BOE: down moderately
  • production tax: flat to slightly up (guidance: 8.5%)
Bakken --
  • 22% oil growth y-o-y: 150,000 bopd
  • 35 gross op wells with first production 
  • 60-well-Long Creek Bakken Unit Development announced
Bakken production -- 
  • 1Q19 step-outs outperforming legacy wells by 75% to 145% at 120 days;
  • Average first year cumulative oil production
    • flat at about 200,000 bopd, 2017 - 2018 (inclusive)
    • significantly greater than the less than 150,000 bbls in 2016 and about 90,000 bbls in 2014
Long Creek Bakken Unit -- slide #12 at the presentation --
  • 10 square miles
  • 6,400 gross acres; 5,600 net acres
  • five 1280-acre stand-up drilling units 
  • 56 wells, 2 rigs
  • first production: 3Q20
  • drilling to begin 4Q19
  • 87% average working interest
  • all products to be on pipe
  • row development
  • installation of facilities already underway
***********************************
Observations -- Long Creek Unit

CLR's graphic of the Long Creek Unit:


Screenshot of NDIC map, Long Creek:

CLR's graphic:
  • 1-2-1-1
  • four drilling units, west to east
NDIC graphic, Long Creek field:
  • only three drilling units, west to east
  • so it looks like one unit is either in Crazy Man Creek (to the west) or the Truax (to the east) 
  • we already know sections 22/27 make up one of the five drilling units
****************************************
CLR -- Yahoo!Finance

2Q19 earnings:
  • missed by a penny
  • 2Q19: 53 cents/share vs 73 cents/share a year ago
2Q19 revenues:
  • beat estimates
  • 2Q19 revenues of $1.2084 billion vs 1.166 million estimate
  • 2Q19 revenues of $1.2084 billion vs 1.1371 billion a year ago quarter
Production surges:
  • averaging 331,414 boepd in 2Q19 vs 284,059 one year earlier
  • oil production: 193,586 bopd, up from 157,116 bopd one year ago = a 23% increase in production
Average price realized:
  • 2Q19: $54.66/bbl
  • 2Q18; $63.35/bbl
Total expenses jump: see linked article

Balance sheet:
  • cash: $206.5 million
  • debt: $5.767.3 billion
South region:
  • will release seven rigs by the end of 4Q19, due to efficiency gains in Springer and Woodford
  • from Reuters:
    • will decrease the number of rigs it operates in Oklahoma to 12 from 19 this year, citing improved productivity.
    •  “The key thing here is it emphasizes the efficiency gains we’ve received from our rigs,” Continental President Jack Stark said during an earnings call with investors. The company has not reduced the number of wells it plans to drill 
Comment: I can already see the headline -- "CLR cuts number of rigs by 40%; slowdown in sight?"

2 comments:

  1. I think efficiency gains is code words for cutting rigs because of price. In 1Q, they moved rigs out of Springboard to rest of SCOOP and said they had all kinds of places to use them. Now they lay them, down.

    Also, in a different part of the call, HH said US needs 100 less rigs drilling. Think it is just price driving less activity. PXD at least was more straightforward in explaining the rig decrease. CDEV also had the "efficiency story" for their reductions.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We'll know in early 2020 if they made their production numbers. My hunch: CLR will make their production numbers.

      Delete

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