Back To RVs, Recession, And All That Jazz -- August 20, 2019

Wow, how many remember this story -- the sale of RVs point to "recession right around the corner"? That was posted back on July 27, 2019, linking a zerohedge story which I blew off as crazy. Apparently they're reading zerohedge or the blog over at The Wall Street Journal, link here.

Elkhart, Ind., is flashing a warning sign about the economy.

Capital of the country’s recreational-vehicle industry, the northern Indiana city and the surrounding area are watched by economists and investors for early indications of waning consumer demand for luxury items, often the first sign of economic anxiety.Shipments of recreational vehicles to dealers have fallen about 20% so far this year, after a 4.1% drop last year, according to data from the RV Industry Association. Multiyear drops in shipments have preceded the last three recessions.

“The RV industry is better at calling recessions than economists are,” said Michael Hicks, an economist at Ball State University, in Muncie, Ind. Mr. Hicks says softening consumer demand for RVs coupled with rising vehicle prices due to tariffs suggests the economy is either in a recession or soon headed for one.

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Phoning It In

"Yeah, I know. All that recession talk is crazy talk. My papa says we're doing just fine. He says to buy more Ford. What's a Ford?"