Anyone Not Paying Attention Is Missing An Opportunity Of A Lifetime -- August 30, 2019

Updates

September 5, 2019: August jobs increase significantly -- huge story -- will get little media play --

• making America great -- private payrolls grew by 195,000
• forecast: 140,000 
• 100,000 of those new jobs came in education and health services
• the jump comes amid heightened fears that the US could slip into recession in next 12 months -- CNBC

September 2, 2019: JP Morgan says it's finally time to buy stocks despite trade woes. Link here at Bloomberg. It's hard for me to believe that JPM would say it's finally time to buy stocks if their analysts felt that there was a "recession right around the corner."


September 2, 2019: Link here.  My graph-filled post below -- the original post -- was posted three days ago, August 30, 2019. Today, published "two hours ago," CNBC has posted an almost exact copy of my post, LOL, even including the rarely seen Cass Freight Index. LOL. They posted a few graphs that I did not post: the ones that supported their case, of course, for "a recession right around the corner." 

September 1, 2019: Link here.

U.S. households ramped up their spending in July, providing reassurance that the economy’s decade-long expansion continued to roll despite slowing factory activity and global growth.

Personal-consumption expenditures, a measure of household spending, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in July from June, a pickup from the previous two months, the Commerce Department said Friday, continuing a solid performance by the economy’s main driving force.

“The consumer is still very sturdy and providing fundamental strength to the overall economy,” said Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist at the National Retail Federation. “As long as we see a strong job market...the direction of the economy continues to be on track: positive but slowing.”  

Tell me again how tariffs are hurting / scaring the American consumer.

Link here. And you know, the up-surge in consumer spending is even bigger than I expected based on the lukewarm report.

Original Post

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Any investor not paying attention is missing an opportunity of a lifetime. Such opportunities don't come around often.

"Recession is right around the corner." How long have "we" been talking about the next recession? This is from Kiplinger, January 25, 2019 -- almost a year ago -- "states most unprepared for the next recession." It gets tedious.

Tariff war: peaked in 2Q19; is now winding down 

"Fed": will continue to cut rates; already at historic lows

2020 president campaign: officially underway; unlikely a sitting president would let an economy go sour during a re-election campaign

G-7:

• mainstream media unable to come up with consistent anti-Trump story
• Trump skating to wear the puck will be
• Trump - Boris: post-Brexit plans; huge trade deal
• Trump - Abe: huge agriculture initiatives
• Trump: remained laser-focused on US economy
• ignored Iranian party-crasher
• ignored France who invited the party-crasher
• met with those who could add most to US economy: UK, Japan

China: yuan on course for worst month since 1994; economy "deepens" in August;


US-Mexico: pipeline meddling resolved in US favor

Afghanistan: troop drawdown


WSJ, US 2Q19 growth slowed, corporate profits rose, link here:

• GDP growth, a "solid pace" at 2.0%, down from first reading of 2.1%
• US corporate profits rebounded (remember: tariff war at its worse during this period, 2Q19)
• corporate earnings surged almost 5% from the prior quarter
• compare with 1Q19: corporate profits declined 1.5%
• compare with 4Q18: corporate profits declined 1.5%
• most recent quarter: corporate profits increased 4.8%
• corporate profits up almost 2% year-over-year
• consumer spending (remember: tariff war at its worse during this period): up almost 5% (annual rate in 2Q19
• consumer spending 2Q19: the strongest pace since late 2014
• consumer spending: stronger than the previously estimated 4.3% 
• consumer spending accounts for 2/3rds of GDP
• US shoppers splurge in face of global headwinds; remember, this was at height of tariff war
  
• 3Q19 GDP: on pace for a 2.2% growth rate 

US consumer sentiment: 19-year high.

US GDP, link here:

Cass Freight Index, link here:

US productivity, link here; and, here:

US labor costs, dropped significantly in 2Q19:

US employment, link here:

US employment, link here:

US unemployment:

Gasoline demand, link here:

US manufacturing: will move back from China to US; will move from Mexico to US.

US energy: speaks for itself.

US equity / US Treasuries yield: this is the real story when looking at "inversions." Bonds, under 2%; equity, approaching 4%.

Anyone complaining about the US economy is one French Fry short of a Happy Meal.