Notes From All Over, Part 3 -- July 31, 2019

Updates

Later, 2:24 p.m. CT: this is pretty funny. After several posts about the grids in the northeast (ISO-NY and ISO-NE), zerohedge now takes the baton. See zerohedge at this link; a reader sent met he link; saw the headline; did not read the story.

Original Post

ISO NE, take a look at this and see if you can see what catches my attention today? Link here:

Time to run through twitter:

• First Squawk: OPEC July oil output falls to lowest level since June, 2011 -- that would be almost ten years ago; wow [memo to First Squawk: need to quit with the ALL CAPS ALREADY]
• OOTT: "almost no growth in US crude oil production since December, 2018"
• OOTT: data for crude oil production in five plays including Colorado, and fails to mention the Bakken
• OOTT: US oil product exports up 1.125 million b/d; compare with 5.827 million b/d last week;
• OOTT: US crude inventories have declined by nearly 49 million bbls in the last seven weeks; doesn't mention when/whether EIA changed its method of calculating inventories
• Williston Herald: after delays, construction begins again on Williston's new Pizza Hut; it's been a year since ground was broken; apparently now near completion;
• Tom Steyer: still advertising; I didn't see his name on the list of those debating on stage; talk about tilting at windmills -- wants Nancy Pelosi to cancel Congressional 6-week summer break; yeah, like that will happen

US crude oil inventories? Let's fact-check:

Week 29	June 12, 2019	2.2	485.5
Week 30	June 19, 2019	-3.1	482.4
Week 31	June 26, 2019	-12.8	469.6
Week 32	July 3, 2019	-1.1	468.5
Week 33	July 10, 2019	-9.5	459.0
Week 34	July 17, 2019	-3.1	455.9
Week 35	July 24, 2019	-10.8	445.1
Week 36	July 31, 2019	-8.5	436.5
			49.0

Nearly? I get 49.0 million bbls exactly.

Calendar, another non-sequitur. Impeachment is still on the table, but ...

• six week Congressional recess
• Democrat base mixed
• autumn session: budget
• Christmas / year-end holidays / recess
• spring: smack dab in the middle of the US presidential campaign
• interest wanes
• Pelosi knows that if the US House moves to impeachment, nothing else gets done
• was it mentioned in the debates last night
• haven't heard anything from the junior senator from Utah in, like, months (I almost said, "years")

The ISO-NE graphic above:

• throw out nuclear -- barely changes from day-to-day, and natural gas makes up about 99% of fuel; it's the marginal fuel, regardless; wind/solar non-dispatchable
• coal, almost nonexistent, is still on the graph
• but look at this: so is heating oil, still on the graph and heating oil is at 3%; renewables at 5%
• natural gas can't keep up with demand
• after decades of grants, tax breaks, government mandates, Tom Steyer ads, faux environmental protests, etc, etc., renewables account for 5% -- which equals oil & hydro combined

Okay, this page is done. Stick a fork in it.