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Thursday, July 25, 2019

Notes From All Over, Part 3 -- July 25, 2019; Another Great Jobs Report And It Won't Even Get Any Coverage

Jobs. Link here to first time unemployment claims --
  • prior: 216K
  • consensus: 219K
  • actual: 206K
  • so, first time unemployment claims drop by 10,000; consensus was for a jump of 3,000
  • won't even get mainstream media coverage
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US Natural Gas

From twitter:

 
Natural gas fill rate, link here. Even with the glut of natural gas production in every oil and gas basin in the US, the country cannot keep up. Note the leveling off of the infill rate when it should be increasing:

 
From twitter today:


6 comments:

  1. "Permanent EF decline" is too strong, just based on recent evidence. See here: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/eagleford.pdf

    EF is up +200,000 bopd from trough of 2016. Now, if CLB wants to say "post peak" (i.e. never break 1.7 again) fine. But saying perpetual decline is unreasonable.

    Also note all the Bakken is over writers...and then Bakken DID set a new record, even after dropping several hundred thousand bopd. Also can loom at the Haynesville for a play that reversed decline and set new records.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you for the support; agree completely.

      The biggest problem I have with suggestions of "permanent decline" being made at this time is forgetting that there is a glut of oil and oil is priced in the mid-50's. I would assume that operators are "holding back." Let's see what happens if/when oil ever gets back to $100 and there's more than adequate takeaway in the various basins.

      Delete
  2. And oil comanes throttling back due to flaring limits.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That is so accurate -- oil companies choking back due to flaring limits. I mention that again, here:

      http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2019/07/eia-dashboards-bakken-and-eagle-ford.html.

      Delete
  3. Side topic, please indulge me. Some pundits and analysts claim we are trending towards recession and use the Cass freight index bottoming this year as an example. I tried clicking on some links and the index includes truck, rail, and shipping freight. But no mention of pipelines.

    In the oil patch pipelining is direct from wells (clean crude, produced water, wet gas) into gathering systems. Tanker trucks to/from Wells are an endangered species. DAL and ENB ridge line taking crude to non west coast refineries. Seems most crude by rail from bakken to west coast only.

    Oil E & P has put truck freight and crude by rail freight into the ground. Cass freight index seems to totally misrepresent the oil and gas industry. Can anyone put a fact finder truth on this. TIA

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We'll ask the question here:

      https://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2019/07/cass-freight-index-july-25-2019.html.

      Delete

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