Notes From All Over -- Part 1, -- Chinese Crude Oil Imports Staggering -- July 12, 2019

Staggering. From twitter today --

Futures:

• WTI: slightly above $60
• Dow: solidly above 27,000
• S&P 500: solidly above 3,000; "poised to open at new record high"
• NASDAQ: closing in on 8,000 

Tesla: for the archives -- to see if this analysis is accurate -- 

• Tesla deliveries in 1Q19 surprised everyone
• analyst suggests it was a one-time beat -- and it was a beat because the bar was set so low
• guidance, 1Q19: 90K to 100K vehicle deliveries
• actual, 1Q19: 95,200 vehicle deliveries
• guidance for full year, unchanged, between 360,000 to 400,000 vehicles

Politics, new polls out (link here). I don't see any significant change over the next few months; everything points to a brokered convention.

• Biden: significant drop; now at 26.8% (when he first announced, he polled at about 35%)
• Harris: stays at 15% but drops to fourth place (Peggy Noonan predicted her "surge" after the first debate would be temporary)
• Bernie: tied for second place after recovering a bit to 15.2% (I think the highest he has ever polled is about 17%)
• Pocahontas: tied for second with crazy Bernie, at 15.2%
• Buttigieg: another flash in the pan, stays at 5.3%
• Beto: drops another 0.5%; now at 2.2%; he's done; stick a fork in him

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Caleb and the Giant Raft