Notes From All Over; Fact-Checking Energy Data From India -- Part 2, July 11, 2019

Jobless claims, link here:

• prior: 221K
• prior revised: 222K
• forecast: 220K
• actual: 209K 

Futures after jobs report: pretty much unchanged. S&P 500 still looks to open right at 3,000.

India: I normally wouldn't post this but it dovetails nicely with my note from last night.

Some folks may focus on oil demand dropping year-over-year (monthly demand). Two observations:

• the change was less than 2%;
• based on many, many factors (including price, and availability of oil from Iran), India could have brought in much more oil earlier in the year (and stored it) or forced to wait until July/August for imports;

What I noticed was the 11% increase in gasoline demand year-over-year; gasoline demand, unlike oil, is generally not affected as much as oil on a daily, weekly, or monthly basis; gasoline is pretty much produced/consumed as needed.

I don't know about the rest of "you," but color me impressed with that 11% increase in gasoline demand in India. Of course, one can do some fact-checking. Let's start here. Paywall. So, we move on to this. The headline:

India’s fuel demand grows 5.30% in FY18 Despite a regulatory lid on polluting fuels, the overall fuel demand in the Indian economy showed a healthy trend in FY18 on the back of strong growth in transportation fuels.

From the linked article:

“At 5.30% growth, India is one of the fastest growing markets globally for petroleum products. The growth in 2017-18 has been as per expectations buoyed by strong growth registered in transportation fuels.

But look at this (and this is why Giovanni Staunovo's brief tweet is unhelpful -- folks might wonder about the 22% decline in "petcoke" demand). From the linked article, this is why:

Supreme Court’s ban on use of Pet coke and Furnace Oil (FO) as fuel in the National Capital Region (NCR), Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh last year seems to have put a dent on consumption of Pet coke and Furnace Oil, data available on Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell website shows.

“Growth could have been even higher but for regulatory clampdown on the use of polluting fuels such as FO and Petcoke in few cities,” Ravichandran explained.

Pet coke consumption grew at 9 per cent to 26 MT. However, the growth registered in 2017-2018 is much lower than the double-digit growth registered in its consumption in the last seven years.

If President Occasional Cortex bans gasoline in the US, the year-over-year demand for gasoline would probably be fairly significant. Just saying. 

And so it goes.