Updates
June 17, 2019: another way to look at the quickness of the fill rate -- see comments --
Another way of looking at how fast inventories recovered this year would be to compare them to last year... the storage report for the week ending March 22nd showed 2019 supplies 20.5% below those of 2018, but as you've noted above, by June 7th, 2019 supplies were 10% above those of last year...June 16 2019: see first comment -- reader suggests just how "steep" this NG fill rate is --
Your headline should read "fairly steepest."
Here's what I have: "The 981 billion cubic feet of natural gas that have been added to storage over the past 11 weeks has been the largest injection of gas into storage on record for any similar period this early in the injection season, probably about double the average 11 week build of the past decade, as the 712 billion cubic feet that were added during the same 11 weeks of 2014 was the only year that even appeared close... "
We've become accustomed to triple digit injections, but scanning the recent decade's spreadsheet, I find that in most years we only had one triple digit inventory build all summer, most often in the fall. The only exceptions were 2014 and 2015, and the June curve in 2014 was the only one as steep as the May curve this year ... so we may be on our way to a record year...
Original Post
Link here.
A pretty steep curve. Inventory 10% over that of a year ago.
Z4 also notes "near Mexican export and LNG export records."
Forecast almost perfect: 102 vs 111 and I had actually seen a forecast of 108 yesterday, so 102 not all that far off.
ok, your headline should read "fairly steepest"...here's what i have:
ReplyDelete"the 981 billion cubic feet of natural gas that have been added to storage over the past 11 weeks has been the largest injection of gas into storage on record for any similar period this early in the injection season, probably about double the average 11 week build of the past decade, as the 712 billion cubic feet that were added during the same 11 weeks of 2014 was the only year that even appeared close... "
we've become accustomed to triple digit injections...but scanning the recent decade's spreadsheet, i find that most years only had one triple digit inventory build all summer, most often in the fall...2014 and 2015 were the only exceptions, and the June curve in 2014 was the only one as steep as the May curve this year...so we may be on our way to a record year...
Considering I know so little about natural gas, I'm impressed that I even noticed that the curve was so steep. Thank you for putting this into perspective and taking time to point it out. Much appreciated.
Deleteanother way of looking at how fast inventories recovered this year would be to compare them to last year... the storage report for the week ending March 22nd showed 2019 supplies 20.5% below those of 2018, but as you've noted above, by June 7th, 2019 supplies were 10% above those of last year...
ReplyDeletea lot of people would have a cow if that kind of change ever happened to oil inventories..
That is absolutely amazing. Great observation. 99% of Americans have no idea this is happening.
Delete