Updates
June 4, 2019: see first comment -- EIA: the "914s"; the monthlies; the most accurate production data - US Field Production of Crude Oil.
Original Post
For background, see this post.
From twitter today:
Which reminds me, the doofus:
Monday, June 3, 2019
In Other Words, Gasoline Should Remain Quite Inexpensive This Summer -- June 3, 2019
June 4, 2019: see first comment -- EIA: the "914s"; the monthlies; the most accurate production data - US Field Production of Crude Oil.
For background, see this post.
From twitter today:
Which reminds me, the doofus:
I do think threat of US production as well as last year's massive increase is what dropped the market. Really both last OCT and just recently. But seems like a stretch to say production way above official numbers. Monthlies are the highest quality data and have been flat NOV-MAR.
ReplyDeleteI really don't know. What I find most interesting, two things:
Deletea) the quality of the data is suspect;
b) the smoke and mirrors of accounting -- now we learn that at least as far back as 2015, the EIA was including line fill as crude oil in storage
Perhaps the best measure will be the crude oil and gasoline export data over the next few years.
I've always known that line fill was part of storage. So are tank bottoms (the oil in a tank below the drain valve). RBN has mentioned this for years.
ReplyDeleteThe 914 (monthlies) is EIA's best report (lags two months, true survey, updated, etc., much better than weeklies) and has shown production flat NOV-MAR.
OCT18: 11.559
NOV18: 11.926
DEC18: 11.963
JAN18: 11.860
FEB18: 11.664
MAR19: 11.905
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS2&f=M
I'd love it if the US were outperforming. Am a cheerleader like you. And Crudehead is a smart guy. But numbers, so far, don't back him up.
Thank you. It will be interesting to watch. Today, Rigzone reports that GOM will hit a new record.
Delete